Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (9669)	4/12/2003 12:27:43 AM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

I'm neutral to mildly bullish on gold and silver right now. The commitment of traders on both have gone pretty neutral, and for the first time since I've followed it, large speculators are net short silver. Plus many of the big silver and gold stocks have been edging up the past week. They are usually a pretty good leading indicator of the spot price movement. I entered a few silver positions last March 12, and one by one, they're going positive. I know you are impressed by the Elliot wave people and they are predicting a down move for gold. It could happen, but there's waves and then there are waves. Personally, I don't believe that future prices of any asset class (e.g gold versus dollars) are some function of the past ones, particularly when the one of them is subject to political whim. Caveat Emptor! CD

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (9669)	4/12/2003 8:53:36 AM
From: crustyoldprospector	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 39344

Charts: <I hope the golds will remain all right.> My observation is that in the final, panic stages of decline, the majors and large juniors get tossed along with all other stocks. However, they outperform general stocks during a "safe haven" bounce afterward, at least temporarily. Look at this chart from the 1987 crash: bigcharts.marketwatch.com and this chart from last year: bigcharts.marketwatch.com Although I cannot pull a 1929-1930 chart up, I have seen charts showing similar action for that time period as well. Currently, my best guess is for an XAU top and subsequent general market panic to start in June, when it becomes all too clear that there will be no 'post-war recovery". And when I say panic, I mean DOW closing in on 6000; an intermediate dip to 7200 shouldn't faze the XAU. One caveat is that there may be intermediate top in the XAU around mid-May, which will be almost as high as the ultimate June top. I am also open to the idea that the relative heights of these two peaks of the double top may be reversed, i.e., XAU tops in May. Some wild speculation in select juniors (probably, those with the most recent positive drill results) should continue into June, nonetheless ... all IMHO. I am also open to the idea this whole time frame could be compressed or expanded by 3-4 weeks, all dependent upon the DOW activity. Unfortunately, the more the compression, the smaller the rise in the XAU. Claude, my guess is that your strategy of buying puts on the majors near the top of a run-up (as insurance against your 25% core position, correct?) will pay handsomely during the summer decline. Though I've never implemented that strategy before, absolutely, I will do so this cycle. The idea that gold follows all other stocks in a panic also speaks well for a strategy that I implement, that is, having general market LEAPS aimed at panic levels (I've accumulated Sept 76 puts). So, if you are on vacation and get surprised by a market panic from nowhere, you are not hurt badly by poor timing in your gold strategy. All just a WAG, Regards, crusty