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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (37192)	4/19/2003 4:15:17 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

hmmmmmm

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (37192)	4/19/2003 5:04:18 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

All of a sudden, on many threads here, and boards all over the 'net, the VIX is suddenly being questioned as a barometer of volatility (hence sentiment)...wazzup with that? Just b/c it's at a bear maket low, people are surmising the bear is petering out. I think people are going to be surprised. -dave

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (37192)	4/19/2003 5:11:04 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 57110

Stand by for a ram..... $NYSI and $NASI don't appear ready to go, but they're often late. Only about half the BP percentages are in turnover territory, but that's not uncommon at a top either. The others could continue up for a bit, then turn.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (37192)	4/19/2003 5:35:18 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Do you think that the VIX hits the bottom of this channel? stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclynay[de][pb50!b200][iub14!lp14,3,3!la12,26,9!ll14!lk14][J11807313,Y]&pref=G&listNum=4 and if so, might it be time to load up in these: stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclyyay[d20020419,20030419][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14][J11807280,Y]&pref=G stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclyyay[d20020418,20030418][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14][J11807278,Y]&pref=G Per your comment the other day, the banks look safer to go after right now: stockcharts.com[e,a]dhclyyay[d20020414,20030414][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14][J11582948,Y]&listNum=3 The HUI is interesting, but the buck chart and gold charts are not convincing just yet. Gold stocks did take off ahead of gold in December/January...: stockcharts.com[e,a]dhclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14][j11582951,y]&listNum=3 buck weekly: stockcharts.com[r,a]whclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3][j11437996,y]&listNum=4 Gold: stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14][J11438001,Y]&pref=G the VXN seems to me mirroring the 1999 low in the P/C ration that you pointed out: stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclynay[d19990419,20030419][pb50!b200][iub14!lp14,3,3!la12,26,9!ll14!lk14][j11807314,y]&listNum=4 the russell 2000 and SOX both broke north last week, as we know... How are you arriving at 350 for the SOX? stockcharts.com[e,a]dhclyyay[d20010414,20030420][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14][j11448060,y]&listNum=3 To summarize, I do not have a clue about where to go right now. The SOX long and short the banks seems like the best 1 day and 5 day bets.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (37192)	4/20/2003 7:41:55 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

i think it's wrong to use the term complacency to describe a low VIX. that places a characteristic of satisfaction on a condition that merely represents low volatility. as i understand, bear markets end when nobody gives a sh*t. what would the VIX look like if that scenario was present? my, there are an awful lot of shorts left in this game.