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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (189)	4/21/2003 6:57:11 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

Here's a site that has an exponential model that I posted before, but is updated every day: squeak.org Note the graph on the above site has a log scale, so exponential growth would be represented by a straight line. His (scary) predictions shouldn't be given too much weight right now, because we still are in the very early stages, and there is at least some chance this epidemic will be controlled. [in edit] And here's a (more cautious and sensible) claim that we do not yet have exponential growth: SARS Cases Worldwide Still No Evidence of Exponential Growth charlesplatt.com Peter

To: Biomaven who wrote (189)	4/22/2003 4:52:23 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

<The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% > Hi Biomaven. That was in days when the proportion of old people was low and life expectancy was nearer 40 than 80. Also, the old people weren't tottering with coronary, lung, diabetes and other medical conditions - people died in those days before they lingered into old age. So, the same virus today would have a mortality probably around 7%, which is where Sars is. Also, the 1981 rate of death in 1918 doesn't seem credible - occurring in a few hours. Probably the victims were sick, entered a rapid growth phase of the virus in their bodies, [the exponential growth in their bodies means a peak seems to suddenly be reached, whereas they could have been infected for a day or two as the bug replicated, and feeling okay until wham, down they go with the final doubling of viral load]. Mqurice