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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (237)	4/23/2003 6:33:33 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

Canadian doctors reporting that only 40% of their SARS patients test positive for suspected coronavirus OR antibodies to it. It's reasonable that by the time a person is symptomatic, they no longer have a high virus titer, but it makes no sense that they wouldn't have antibodies, unless that is the reason they are dying? promedmail.org Edit: the above isn't the article I am thinking of. Will post in succeeding post if I can't find it before the edit window closes. Edit again: mjfdl posted something about this earlier.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (237)	4/23/2003 6:55:28 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 1070

Road blocks in Beijing, death rate in Hong Kong may be 17.5%. >>China fights to contain SARS outbreak 24/04/2003 00:29:00 \| Lateline Governments across the region are resorting to draconian measures to contain the deadly SARS virus. Authorities near Beijing have blocked a major road to try to prevent large numbers of people entering and leaving the city. But SARS continues to claim more lives, with almost 250 people now dead and more than 4,000 are reported to have the disease. Transcript: LISA UPTON: This is the main road that runs east out of Beijing in Hebei province. Officials here didn't want the ABC to film these pictures but promised to invite the crew back when they had good news about SARS. The aim of this exercise is to identify people with symptoms of SARS and reduce the flow of traffic entering and leaving Beijing. In the 90 minutes the ABC spent filming here, about a third of the vehicles travelling in both directions were turned back. An Australian teacher living in Hebei says foreign nationals have been told they can't leave the province for three weeks. SIMON BAIRD, ENGLISH TEACHER: Because this is all happening so suddenly and because we don't really trust the information coming through, then we've got no idea whether we'll be able to get out. LISA UPTON: He's not the only one desperate to leave the country. WILL BARRETT, AUSTRALIAN CITIZEN: In particular, we're concerned that our children, if they happen to get sick, they might have to go into a hospital in Beijing. And as far as we know, many of the hospitals here are dangerous places to be because of the possibility of getting SARS. LISA UPTON: After months of ignoring the SARS problem, China is now taking radical steps to prevent the spread of the disease. Schools in Beijing closed this afternoon and 1.7 million students have been told not to return for two weeks. LI LIHONG, FANGCAODI PRIMARY SCHOOL: We prepared two weeks worth of homework for the students which can give some direction to their study. LISA UPTON: The World Health Organisation maintains that only 4 per cent of people who contract SARS will die. It's arrived at that figure by dividing the number of reported SARS cases by the number of reported deaths. DOMINIC DWYER, VIROLOGIST: My personal opinion is that it probably will be a little bit higher than 4 per cent, particularly as we know there are still a lot of people in hospital, a lot of people in intensive care. And you might expect the mortality rate in those people is higher. LISA UPTON: But some medical experts say the methods used to calculate mortality rates are flawed. An instructor of surgery at the Harvard Medical School told the 'Asian Wall Street Journal' that, by his calculations, the death rate for Hong Kong on 20 April was 17.5 per cent. Canada's was more than 18 per cent and Singapore's about 14 per cent. Australia remains fatality free, but in NSW the Government has invoked special powers in the event of a serious outbreak. Authorities will be able to fine or jail potential SARS carriers if they refuse treatment. BOB CARR, NSW PREMIER: We've got to protect ourselves, it's as simple as that. LISA UPTON: While Australia remains relatively unscathed by SARS, it is beginning to feel the economic pinch. The Northern Territory today cancelled the Arafura Games because many competitors couldn't confirm their attendance. Lisa Upton, Lateline.<< goasiapacific.com

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (237)	4/24/2003 6:35:46 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

The Sars mortality for European people [genetic European - though maybe immunologically 'European' or some other variable such as ventilator care, diet, diagnosis or something] seems to be near zero. What's going on with that? Also, the UN shouldn't call Taiwan "China Taiwan". It's Taiwan. A distinct place with no governance from China. I couldn't find it quickly on the list who.int because of that bit of politics. China has already shown the cost of their stupid political attitude. Heaps of dead people who wouldn't have been infected [yet anyway] if they'd acknowledged the Sars disaster, incipient catastrophe, in the early stages. Of 79 cases in non-Chinese countries, there have been no deaths. Except that Toronto has a very high death rate. Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Mongolia, Philippines, maybe Indonesia, seem to be the death zone. Other than Toronto, which is a mess. Taiwan and Japan have cases, but no deaths. Why? This doesn't seem to be something all humans suffer from equally, or diagnosis is wrong, or something. Where it does kill, it's horrendous. Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (237)	4/25/2003 2:33:59 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 1070

2 suspected cases of Sars in New Zealand. One in a Hawkes Bay hospital - a woman who had travelled to China. And me. I have the preliminary clinical symptoms [though no cough yet] but am missing the travel connection, as far as I know. So much for my recent idle boast to family about how tough I am these days. Off to bed. Mq

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (237)	4/28/2003 2:54:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

USA doesn't bother reporting. Maybe other countries are under-reporting too, like China did. India for example, might have umpteen cases and they seem to not care. Fatalism is fatal. India makes an art form of fatalism. Many countries seem to have rounded up the few cases and stopped the spread. China might be on the way to doing so too. Cumulative deaths and other statistics: who.int x = 10 deaths. 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .28 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [actual 321] Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxeeee [e = my estimate] Mqurice Who over the past few days survived a vicious attack of Sars, which didn't cause a cough and managed to infect me despite no contact with people from Hong Kong or China and with no other cases in New Zealand - obviously a different, cunning and malevolent mutant form. Other infectious diseases are going to be very annoyed at Sars for making it so hard to earn a living in humans. Even the common cold will have trouble making the usual rounds in China. The number of days off sick will reduce. Productivity will zoom up. China's economy will take off. The amount of spit on food from food preparation people will reduce. They should be banned from using the letter p if they are not wearing a mask - they should always have to wear a mask. Imagine the waitress saying, as she prepares to place your potato and patisserie on the plate, "Potatoes and patisserie, pesto and pumpkin, pickles and peppers - prepared and presented". Every p spraying an aerosol of tiny droplets onto your dinner. Which you then put on your palate. Toast, tea, tomatoes or buns, butter and bananas are not much better. Those plosive letters invariably cause spittle spray. Some customer relations places have glass windows between the service person and customer. Once I asked why was it necessary. The person pointed to the window to show me the amount of muck that is sprayed onto the glass from the customers. It was pretty disgusting and I can see that good air extraction, a long arm or goggles and masks are necessary to protect such people from people using p in their pronouncements.