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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (382)	5/3/2003 8:14:56 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 1070

Warning for next northern winter: dailytelegraph.co.uk < One of Hong Kong's leading medical investigators into Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome has warned that an even wider global epidemic could occur next winter, even if the current outbreak proves to have peaked. Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, a microbiologist and one of two leaders of the Sars investigation team at Hong Kong university, said that other forms of the Coronavirus, of which Sars is the most deadly variant, go dormant in summer and become active again in winter. There was no reason to believe that the Sars virus would behave any differently. "This means that the coming winter may be even worse," he said. "There may be a bigger epidemic." Dr Yuen, who treated Hong Kong's first Sars victim, pointed out that many people were carrying the virus even though they showed no symptoms. While they appeared to be fit, they were unwittingly transmitting the virus to others. Yesterday, Hong Kong's director of health, Margaret Chan, sought to play down Dr Yuen's fears, which she described as "speculative". The rate of infection in Hong Kong at the moment is in decline. Yesterday, just 10 new cases of Sars were reported and nine people died. ... contd...> My guess is that people will get bored with it, infections will continue at low levels and in October, we'll be away again. It's already May and China hasn't peaked yet. Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (382)	5/5/2003 7:39:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

who.int x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..5 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [461] Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (382)	5/7/2003 6:47:08 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1070

who.int x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [495] Once the 'recovered' are half the cumulative total infected, that seems to be an indicator that the battle is on the way to a human win. Taiwan and China are on that basis the losing places. Hong Kong is almost getting it under control. The rest of the world has cornered it. But it is heading into summer in the northern hemisphere, so Sars was going to take a summer vacation anyway. Let's see how we go in October and through winter. That'll be the test. Meanwhile, on a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx Weekly deaths increasing slowly now. Hope! Mqurice