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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (855)	5/7/2003 4:25:34 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4904

Perception becomes reality. -ng- Of those folks, how many actively manage their portfolios? My guess is a very small percentage. So Wall St. just keeps shucking their hard earned bucks into a more pumped up valueless market...while they Street shorts it all the way home. I believe it's called 'pump 'n dump'.

To: GraceZ who wrote (855)	5/7/2003 4:32:23 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4904

Ask the average person what they think the economy is doing so according to this logic, if in the early 1930s you asked the average person in the soupline how the economy was doing, and they told you bad, then this would be a contrarian indicator and one should load up on stocks during the early 30s rally which took out the 200 day moving average just like they harp on about on CNBC. so one would, in this "contrarian" scenario, assume that the person in the soup line is wrong whereas the stock hypester is correct, and bet all one's money on stocks, and go bankrupt. applying a similar logic today, if you talk to people in souplines and believe what they say then you are non-contrarian, whereas if you believe all the conformist money managers who are still hyper-long stocks even after losing SO MUCH OF OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY THESE PAST THREE YEARS WITHOUT ONCE CHANGING THEIR TUNE in this overvalued market, such that: * the conformist Barron's Big Money poll recently found an incredibly high bullish percentage among big money managers and * mutual fund cash levels are at an all time low while * cap utilization is at a multidecade low and * the QQV and VXN are at all-time lows and the VIX hasn't been this low since just prior to the June 2002 selloff and * the market is still overpriced by any valid long-term measure known to man and so on and so on. do you REALLY THINK IT IS CONTRARIAN TO BE BEARISH? do you even want to try to argue this one? ROFL!

To: GraceZ who wrote (855)	5/7/2003 4:37:29 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4904

When I ask them where they think the stock market is going, they say, "Up, and then I'm getting out for good." I haven't met anybody yet who has gotten out except my father-in-law for the most part, after retiring a couple years ago. Now he's in a real estate fund. My sister just got a 100% mortgage for a vast house and told me that it doesn't matter that they have no equity -- the house will be appreciating like crazy because that's what the housing market does. All but 1 of those I know who've gotten burned have told me they do not open their brokerage statements. What this tells me (and your comments, which are by-and-large correct I think) is that while many people have been burned and feel less secure and more pessimistic, they have yet actually to act on that knowledge. Instead, there has been a great credit card & refi bridge/binge to connect the standard of living from when they were "confident" to when they fully expect to be confident again. I know just one couple who took it in the shorts and then modified their behavior (quick learners I guess). In other words, I think many people are seeing trouble but crossing their fingers behind their backs.

To: GraceZ who wrote (855)	5/7/2003 9:58:47 PM
From: _scar_face_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4904

Since I deal with a broad range of economic classes each day (I'm not a money manager for my family members only like some), I just thought I'd let you know that they are actually quite upbeat on the things you mentioned (the ones with jobs anyway) and are also the buy and hold types like yourself. In fact, I just met up with someone who took out a substantial home equity loan so that they could buy a few HF's, the likes EBAY and EXPE (as an aside, I believe you spoke in favor of these companies, as their equity neared their highs, not much unlike the lady who took out a HE loan - but I kmow it's different, because you just liked the companies) and the S&P. So I'm not sure what channel you're watching, but I do suggest you get out of the dark room along with SI and change it to the real world, and quit fooling yourself, if you really want to know what's going on.