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To: ajtj99 who wrote (74463)5/23/2003 12:49:19 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
thanks for that aj; very helpful. won't dis-agree with anything that you say. plus, as i said, i wouldn't even consider investing in any bankruptcy re-org until at least a year after they emerge, so you have something that at least resembles a clean set of financials to work with.

given your intimate knowledge of the retail sector, do you have any opinions on where FUTURE bad accidents are coming from. TOY is at the top of my list, and i think CC is done for though i am less excited about shorting it given the stock price. i also do not think that JCP is long for this world.

Cheers



To: ajtj99 who wrote (74463)5/23/2003 1:00:43 PM
From: nspolar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
aj, I'm not a big reader of balance sheets. More a chart player. Time is part of the factor. Other part is I don't care for reading that stuff.

Kmart was a big play of mine back in 98/99. I was over weight, thought it was going to move up and come back with Big Floyd (Big Floyd the crook).

Got suspicious and read their reports over and over. Concluded they were in trouble - mainly inventory problems mainly at that time. Also traveled some and made it a point to go into stores, in other towns. All that stock in these remodeled Kmart stores, and only a few cash registers in action. Same scene over and over. Simple math indicated it wasn't going to wash. Bailed with a 10% loss.

In hindsight one of my best moves. Took a hell of dump shortly after I bailed. The Yahoo! board was in hindsight was also inundated with some professional pumpers.

Kmart, just another example of how shitily managed many companies in America have been, and unfortunately many continue to be so.

During the course I also PM'ed a little with a decent, loyal KM store manager. He told me the buyers in Troy got rewarded for all the good deals they got on inventory, whether stores needed it, could move it, or not. Many stores had trailer after trailer setting in the P-lot.

I know I should closely read more reports. I'm sure I'd stay away from more stuff, if I did.