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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (587)	6/23/2003 4:02:36 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 1070

Henry, I was on the case back on 26 Feb < I am very interested in the girl and her father who died of flu in the past week or two and her brother who is in isolation and gravely ill. I wonder whether that won't be the big news story of 2003. All other events might become inconsequential > Message 18629116 If what you say is true, that still might be the case come next December. By 24 March, it was looming as definitely nightmare material: Message 18748591 <Singapore is taking it seriously, wisely in my opinion. They have quarantined nearly 1000 people for 10 days in their homes. This disease has the potential to significantly reduce the world's population and certainly the world's economic activity. > I issued a RED ALERT that day [24 March] Message 18748714 <A HUGE war looming and much bigger deal than Al Qaeda or Saddam or North Korea: > 7 April, I realized the people who should know were reporting a much lower death rate than was obviously happening, giving false hope to people and causing people to not take it extremely seriously: < The death rate is about 7%, not the widely reported 4% which is incorrectly measured as the number dead as a percentage of the total infected to that date. People take several days to die as the infection develops in their lungs. The death rate is actually "Of those infected, what % die from their infection?" > Message 18807952 8 April and things were deteriorating rapidly: <We've reached the first 100 dead, including some of our champion infection fighters. That was a rapid increase. The bug will be mutating faster now that 1000s of people are infected, looking for avenues to improve it's propagation talents. > Message 18815704 Overall, the total death rate of all infected is going to be just under 10%. But that includes wildly different death rates from 0% in European countries other than Canada to 17% in Hong Kong. Canada seemed to be especially hopeless with the world champion death rate [where there were meaningful numbers of people ill]. In 'white' countries, [other than Canada], the death rate was zero. Why would that be? There were over 100 cases and zero deaths in white countries. Reporting common cold or flu as sars? Euros are immune to such bugs? Chinese smoke like mad and it was mostly smoking Chinese men who died? There are enough differences from country to country that some conclusions can be drawn. Mqurice