Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (24241)	7/1/2003 1:06:34 PM
From: Rock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206093

While I agree that "it's different this time" is a dangerous phrase, it's far more dangerous when applied to phenomena based on human psychology (e.g. asset bubbles) as opposed to phenomena based on the consumption limited resources (e.g. fossil fuels, pollution, etc.). With limited resources, sooner or later it will be different. All in all, the board consensus seems to be that there is no oil shortage, only a shortage of easily/cheapy attained oil. As JimP has noted, there is nothing in this thesis that implies a loss of cyclicality. That's all fair enough and in keeping with my beliefs. However, there's also nothing in that thesis that suggests that the profits associated with finding/attaining/refining/selling new fossil fuel supplies will not be reallocated in the future as the cost of the whole process increases. I expect it will be reallocated but to which group? Majors, OSX, independent E&P's? Generally, value is delivered to the guys doing the necessary jobs that others can't do. So, what's going to get harder in the expensive oil world? Finding doesn't seem too hard. Transport doesn't seem too hard. Crude refining doesn't seem too hard. Selling doesn't seem too hard. Now, getting it out of the ground and into a refinable product may be quite hard. Does this point us to drilling tech companies? If so, who? Likewise, funding expensive projects with high technical risk may be quite hard. Does this point us to the majors and away from E&P's with lousy balance sheets? Is there soon to be a growing need for pre-refining technology if some supplies are substandard as they emerge? Answers anyone?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (24241)	7/1/2003 1:42:15 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206093

Darfot, projections of peak oil production couldn't account for new technologies. Technologies, for example, that allowed a higher extraction rate, better localization, deeper depth, etc. The next horizon for energy production will be the use of other sources of hydrocarbons for energy and the development of "stranded gas" to supply energy. We wouldn't be even be having a discussion about peak oil if the numbers included such things as methane deposits, stranded gas, oil shale/sands, etc. Methane hydrate deposists, for example, are estimated at twice the total global amount of reserves of gas+oil+coal (!). Maybe you can say that we can't produce this resource yet. But did you know that APC recently spudded the first methane hydrate well in Alaska? fossil.energy.gov Peak oil production may be here (I doubt it), but we are far from peak hydrocarbon production. BTW, ng going under 5 soon.