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Strategies & Market Trends : Stocks Crossing The 13 Week Moving Average <$10.01 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (12603)	7/29/2003 3:19:32 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

13's With Legs... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Here are three 13's with good technical and fundamental strength... HOMS VRLK LOOK Jim

To: James Strauss who wrote (12603)	7/29/2003 3:34:31 PM
From: Silver_Bullet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

I think puts are the better bet on the homebuilders. But, this mornings dip was a good short term buy opp on the calls. I'm in and out daily if not hourly, keeping it nimble. FT

To: James Strauss who wrote (12603)	7/30/2003 12:20:21 PM
From: Silver_Bullet	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13094

Refinancing Wave Breaks as Rates Rise and CTX a homebuilder was a good play this morn off the 10 DMA, Ran to resistance at the 20 DMA. At some point real soon that trade doesn't work anymore. FT P.S. Yeild on the 10yr crossed the 13 week moving average 3 weeks ago? ******** NEW YORK (Reuters) - Demand for mortgage refinancings -- a lifeline for the anemic U.S. economy -- sank last week to lows not seen since last December, an industry survey reported on Wednesday. Fewer consumers applied for loans to buy homes, and the jump in borrowing costs fanned concern among economists that a rapid rise in borrowing costs over the past six weeks may hobble the economic recovery. ADVERTISEMENT "Where's the fork? Refis are done," Drew Matus, economist at Lehman Brothers, quipped in a report. Rates for 30-year loans, the most commonly used home mortgage, rose to 5.87 percent in the latest week from 5.72 percent in the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Demand for refinancings as measured by the trade group's refinance index plummeted 32.9 percent to 4,145.8 in the week ended July 25. The percentage decline was the largest since January 2002, but in points it was the largest drop ever. The refinancing index is at lows not seen since Dec. 20, 2002, and is now 58 percent below the record 9,977.8 set in the last week of May. "The drop in refi activity could be a major blow to the recovery if rates remain high," Chris Low, economist at FTN Financial, warned in a report. And economists at BNP Paribas pointed out that the drop "is a dent in household cash flow." "The 30-year contract rate is at highs not seen since December 13 of 2002 when it was at 5.91 percent," said Douglas Duncan, the trade group's chief economist, adding "there is no question we're past the peak (in refinancings)." The association also reported its purchase index, a measure of demand for loans to buy homes, fell 3.5 percent to 426.9. Record home sales and refinancings have been a key support for a struggling economy in recent years because they encourage spending as owners outfit their new homes with furniture and appliances. Low rates have allowed home owners to cut borrowing costs by refinancing their mortgages. Many homeowners have squeezed equity out of their homes with the help of cash-out refinancings and used the money to pay down debt or spend it on goods and services. In the first half of this year about $50 billion of consumer spending was due to cash-out refinancings, according to Freddie Mac. For all of 2002 the amount totaled $96 billion.** "Obviously, there is a strong relationship between refi activity and mortgage rates. The refinance market is going to take a hit," said Richard Green, principal economist at Freddie Mac. But he said there are factors other than low borrowing costs that drive demand for homes. "It is not just interest rates, but about people's expectations about home prices in the future, the cost of rent and alternative investment opportunities," Green noted. "The stock market uncertainties will cause people to put money into the housing market." Looking ahead, FTN's Low said home sales could jump in July as stragglers look to buy homes before rates rise further. "Some people will have rate locks they'll push to get done," he said, adding "you will see a rise in home sales, then activity should peter out pretty quickly after that." The Mortgage Bankers Association's Duncan agreed, pointing out that his greatest concern for the housing market is a "a rapid and substantial run-up in rates." Such a run-up -- to 8 percent -- in a very short period of time could not only evaporate demand for refinancings, but impact home sales, he said. As refinancings peter out, the benefits to the economy will diminish. "In coming months, cash flow to homeowners will start to dry up," said Low. "Refis will be a negligible component of the economy if rates are at this level or higher by year-end."