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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (15533)	8/3/2003 10:07:08 PM
From: zinc-man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<net importer > Keep in mind, the USD will have a dramatic effect on the price of base/resource plays. History supports both high prices and high inventory levels, along with low prices and low inventory levels. For example, during 1999-2001 zinc fell below critical 6 week supple levels on the LME, yet maintained steep price declines. Inflation and USD fall will be the leading factor in pricing power for metals, followed by rising economic driven demand. ZM

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (15533)	8/4/2003 9:18:38 AM
From: TheBusDriver	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

What do you make of this Louis from the latest issue of the privateer: "Now, with the US having chosen to place itself in a position where it requires external funding to the immense tune of $US 1 TRILLION over the next 12 months alone, a hard question has to rise in the minds of the men in Tokyo and in Peking: “Who is to fund the majority of this?” In both capitals, they know that the continental Europeans are deflecting this same problem by the simple means of promptly buying up external assets across Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa. It is these nations which now hold the US Dollars which the Europeans do not want to pile up in their own basements. But China and Japan also know that the moment they start to do the same thing, their export earned US Dollars would no longer return to the USA. And then, the US would no longer order Japanese and Chinese consumer goods and there would go their vital export industries. Europe does not need the US consumer market, China and Japan DO. What Japan And China Forgot To Look At: Ever since the end of the 1960s, and especially since 1980, Japan, China, and everybody else in the world should have been looking at the ballooning size of US debt markets. These markets have grown from under $US 1 TRILLION in 1980 to over $US 40 TRILLION today. Had Japan and China looked closely and calmly at this over the past twenty plus years, they would have seen the US borrow and lend back to itself an additional standard of living to the tune of that $US 39 TRILLION over the past 20 plus years. If they had both seen this earlier, neither Japan nor China would today be standing with massive export industries which are dependent on their ability to sell inside the US consumer market. Japan and China (and Asia) have relied on American's ability to borrow and have recycled the Dollars earned by their exports right back to the US, making it much easier for Americans to borrow more." the-privateer.com Sound to me like if we go down China does too. Also follows that they will not need to import so much raw material if their exports to the US take a nose dive. Wonder how this would effect the likes of IVN? Wayne