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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (117319)10/21/2003 5:42:19 PM
From: aladin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Jacob,

You can argue that, in the past, the U.S. needed a First Use doctrine, because of inferiority in conventional military power. But, today, as we have demonstrated repeatedly, we have overwhelming superiority in WW2-style war-making. A couple of divisions of our heavy armor, backed up by our airpower, can flatten the conventional forces of every conceivable opponent. So what's the excuse for First Use today?

North Korea with its 'conventional WMD' aimed at Seoul and China with the same vis-a-vis Taiwan. this is also why we could have backed the Landmine treaty, but wouldn't be given an exception on North Korea.

Agreed. I should have said, "No First Use of WMD", instead of "No First Use of Nuclear weapons". And I would define WMD by their indiscriminate destructive power, not by the type of technology. For instance, the anthrax attacks after 9/11 were not a WMD. They were an essentially trivial terror weapon. 20,000 artillery tubes pointed at a large metropolitan area is a WMD. As an arbitrary definition, I'd say a WMD is any weapon, using any technology, that can kill a million people in 24 hours.

Ok we are getting much closer to a similar world view with these statements :-) However be careful - while only 3,000 died at the WTC - 50,000 KIA was intended and with your million number, neither Hiroshima or Nagasaki count.

On Taiwan - I can agree that for now and the immediate future you are correct - but installing hundreds of missiles across the straights is a provocation.

We did nothing, when Iraq used chemical weapons in 1988. We did nothing (because there was no identifiable nation to retaliate against) after the 2001 anthrax attacks. It depends on the scale, I think. If a chemical or biological weapon was used against us, by an identified nation (our Intel better be good on this; random retaliation would be a disaster), and if the body count was in the millions, we would consider a nuclear response. And I'd support that, using the Principle of Strict Reciprocity (and defining WMD by effect, not technology used)..

All the more reason for small tactical nukes. Why take out a whole country, when you could limit (not stop) civilian carnage when targeting the regime? Today's anti nuke protesters (objecting to nuke research) ensure our only response can be complete devastation.

You've identified a real conflict between 2 of my basic Principles. Absolute respect for sovereignty would mean standing aside, while Pol Pot murders most of the population of Cambodia. Absolute enforcement of humanitarian standards would, in practice, mean a return to the 19th Century, with a Benevolent Western Imperialism ruling the planet. Neither extreme is practical or moral. And I seriously doubt, based on our track record, that our Imperialism could be Benevolent. A balance needs to be found, and that balance would be decided by negotiation among the civilized nations.

Civilized Nations whose cooperation is needed, to make my plan work: EU, AngloSphere, China, India, Russia, Japan. Together, that group can enforce anything on the rest of the planet. And if they acted in a disciplined manner, they could enforce the Rules Of Civilized Conduct (which they would define, by group consensus), using entirely non-violent methods.


But Pol Pot did kill a 1/3rd of his population and ruled with absolute control. There was no way for the population to revolt - they were killed for looking the wrong way. The only thing that stopped him was foreign intervention (and to our shame - we were not involved).

Eventually regimes such as Mao and Stalin (and potentially Pol Pot and Hitler had wars not occurred) mellow and become routine and then the population can revolt, but during the revolution - watch out.

Your solution says - write off these people, soverignty is more important.

They (Arabs) are un-assimilable. The best way to get along with them, is to leave them alone in their own nation-states.

Well if you accept this is true we need a crash plan on energy independence and then we can ignore them.

My plan:
Short Term: Drill anwar, drill the coast, relieve air-pollution laws for coal,
Medium (and start today): invest 87 billion in R&D in nuclear and fission research, build a national nuclear plan similar to the French. Replace all coal fired electricity with Nuclear, Hydro and alternative energy. Fuel Cell and hydrogen pushed.
Long term: Fission or other technology as warranted for electricity. Hydrogen or fuel-cells (as economics and technology dictate) for vehicles.

John



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (117319)10/21/2003 6:33:34 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
> Absolute respect for sovereignty would mean standing aside, while Pol Pot murders most of the population of Cambodia.

You and I agree on most things Jacob, but I am afraid this is not one of them. Socio-political systems are not unlike other organic natural systems. There is a built-in mechanism towards equilibrium. Everytime you see an extreme swing like Pol Pot or Hitler or other extreme sentiments, it is a sign of extreme (and usually prolonged) external shock to the system. The reason the shock has to have been external is not so much that the natives are better human beings. But rather by the virtue of being in the middle of it, they could not have endured it for extended period of time. The system would have balanced itself. I suppose if you dig deep into history, you will find some examples of the prolonged trauma being inflicted by an indigenous ruling class that saw itself separate from the masses. But I think the French and Russian revolutions saw the last of those cases. So in the end, I side with non-interference. However, non-interference does not mean we have to have trade relationships with those we do not approve of.

ST

PS Here is an alternative perspective on the rise of Pol Pot.

The Washington Post reacted to the good news of Pol Pot's death by offering (4/17/98) a viciously tortured view of the historical circumstances by which Cambodia's Pol Pot gained power, and afterwards, eluded punishment.

In the Post's version of events, Pol Pot is said to have risen to the leadership of the underground, communist movement in 1962. He fled to the countryside to avoid a crackdown by the government of Prince Norodom Sihanouk.

While concocting a "strange ideological brew of Marxism" from the jungle, Pol Pot conducted a guerilla war against the government. This movement was given a boost when Sihanouk, having been deposed by a US-backed military government, joined Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge forces.v The inept government steadily lost ground, US military support was cut off from it, and in 1975, the Khmer Rouge took over the government of Cambodia.

Thus readers are led to believe that the well-documented madness Pol Pot installed while ruling Cambodia from 1975 to late 1978 was entirely because the Cambodians let it happen, save for that military regime the US installed. Any opinions that offer an alternative explanation for Pol Pot's rise are marginalized.

In his letter to Mathew Rothschild, editor of The Progressive, Edward Herman refutes that version of history:

"The United States killed hundreds of thousands [of Cambodians] in bombing raids from 1969 to 1975, and left a shattered country with mass starvation imminent even before the Khmer Rouge takeover. Every serious scholar recognizes that the Khmer Rouge was radicalized and embittered by the US assault, and enraged at the urban elite that invited in, and was supported by, the foreign terrorists and murderers from the sky." (The Progressive, 10/97).

(Herman was responding to Rothschild's support of an Anthony Lewis column in the New York Times, which attacked Noam Chomsky by calling him a Khmer Rouge apologist. That stems from a 1975 article published in The Nation by Chomsky and Herman that argued that by bombing Cambodia to kingdom come, the US created the circumstances by which a monster like Pol Pot could come to power. This was a very interesting conflict, as both Herman and Chomsky reiterated their positions in letters to The Progressive, and finally Rothschild backed down.)

It seems inconceivable that the Washington Post would fail to mention the major circumstances under which Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge seized power-not even to say that it is a subject under scholarly debate. Yet, the facts are well known. According to the Encarta 98 Encyclopedia, the four-year bombing campaign, begun under Nixon's orders in 1969, caused great destruction and upheaval in Cambodia, a land of farmers who had not known war in centuries. Code-named Operation Menu, the bombing was more intense than that carried out over Vietnam. An estimated 100,000 peasants died in the bombing, while 2 million people were left homeless.

Even worse, the Washington Post glosses over what happened after Pol Pot was removed from power by the Vietnamese. They tell us that Pol Pot "dropped from public view as the full horror of it became clear." We are also told that Pol Pot retained the leadership of the Khmer Rouge while his guerillas battled the invading Vietnamese, then `retired' in 1985 to head an obscure institute. In other words, Pol Pot just kind of faded away-and so did US interest.

This is quite a different story than the one told by the more conscientious historians at Covert Action Quarterly, also published in DC. In the fall 1997 issue, John Pilger writes that the US funneled $86 million in support of Pol Pot and his followers from 1980 to 1986. In addition, the Reagan administration schemed and plotted to have Khmer Rouge representatives occupy Cambodia's UN seat, even though the Khmer Rouge government ceased to exist in 1979. This was a sad effort to grant Pol Pot's followers international legitimacy.

Pilger also informs us that the US applied pressure to the World Food Program to ensure that $12 million worth of food targeted elsewhere in an international rescue effort would be handed over to the Thai army to be passed on to the Khmer Rouge. In addition, Washington set up the Kampuchean Emergency Group (which later morphed into the Kam- puchean Working Group), whose unspoken mission was to direct food to Khmer Rouge bases.

This helped restore the Khmer Rouge as a fighting force based in Thailand, which destabilized Cambodia for more than a decade, much like the US-backed Contras did in Nicaragua during the same period.

Of course, it should go without saying that the Reagan and Bush administrations covertly channeled weapons to the Khmer Rouge by using Singapore as a middleman. As with "Iran-Contra," Bush's military aid to the Khmer Rouge violated a law passed by Congress in 1989 that expressly forbade it.

The US also used its clout in the UN to get the UN Human Rights Sub-commission to drop from its agenda a draft resolution on Cambodia that would subject former Khmer Rouge leaders to international war crimes tribunals. Henry Kissinger was an important influence in this ignoble effort.

Thus, another dictator/mass murderer has died or become useless to US interests, and the Washington Post rushes yet again to print a version of history that omits mentioning the scope of US complicity. A short list of dictators who have received the Post's special treatment over the years include the late Jean-Claude Duvalier, Ferdinand Marcos, Sese Seko Mobutu, Anastasio Somoza, and Rafael Trujillo. Of this group, Pol Pot is unquestionably the most villainous, having killed an estimated 1.7 million of his countrymen in three horrifying years.

A pattern emerges, evident to all who permit themselves to see it. While the US unfailingly lends support to mass murderers around the globe its mainstream press convinces the general public it is not happening. The propaganda is so intense that mature adults routinely doubt whether our altruism should continue indefinitely.

Moreover, the disgusting likes of Kissinger, Reagan and Bush get to sleep easy at night while their victims-like the mainstream media-tell no tales.

Scott Loughrey

media-criticism.com



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (117319)10/21/2003 8:03:37 PM
From: frankw1900  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
because the soldiers refused to fire on their own people, when the Communists ordered it

Strictly speaking, soldiers didn't fire because they preferred to take orders from the government, not the communists, and then through proper channels. They had no obligation to participate in a coup.

The Soviet rulers by then had no faith in communism and no reason to spill blood in the cause, and in the way, their predecessors had. They had no old blood on their hands and no reason to spill more.

The people came into the streets because they preferred their government to the communist party. They had got the government because the nomenklatura had fragmented under various reforms and Gorbachev further undermined it. The realization was a long process and had some false starts - eg Prague Spring. Had the people come into the streets ten years sooner, it's very likely they would have been mowed down. (As the citizens of Iraq certainly would have been and as the those of N Korea very likely would be). The citizens of the satellite countries went into the streets because they saw the external guarantor of their tyrannical rulers was collapsing - previous to that there was no way such an event would have been successful, and when it happened the Russian army etc put it down.

When the Iraq Kurds and Shiites thought they saw (an externally caused)weakness in their oppressors in 91 they came into the streets and were crushed - their massed graves are still being uncovered.

Your smug judgement that it's merely the choice of the N Koreans, or previously the Iraqis, that they live or not under their tyranny is flawed. The parallel between them and the Soviets is mistaken: the rulers of Korea have not, and and former rulers of Iraq had not, given up the will to kill as many of their subjects as necessary to maintain their position and they have and had the means to do it.

You think the citizens of these countries are supposed to gamble on the good will of men in armies controlled by evil people dedicated only to themselves. Say "give me liberty or give me death" to Saddam or the Korean thug and they'll say "you got it baby." Your own words show the difficulty:

because the soldiers refused to fire on their own people, when the Communists ordered it. And because the People, in their millions, came out into the streets and said "I will no longer obey. Give me liberty or give me death

So what odds would you have given the Iraqi Shiites if they had revolted in 2002 and gone into the streets, that the army would not have mowed them down? It's high time you read the history of Basra 1991 to 2002 or even Eastern Europe 1950 - 1970. Or paid serious attention to the well-founded utter terror the Kurds had with regard to Saddam's chem warfare capability.

In this same vein what odds do you give the Shiite minority in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia if they revolt against the terrorism practised against them?

Going into the streets against a regime can work once it has picked up certain aspects of modernity - that's what happened with the Soviets. It's not going to happen in Korea and it wasn't going to happen in Iraq. It possibly could happen in Iran and it certainly can work for the Palestinians against the Israelis, except their rulers, Arafat and cronies, don't want to be modern, despise the idea of peace, and are generally, archaic fuckwits who dedicatedly destroy, or drive out, those in their population who have overt modern tendencies.

The heavily armed subjects of Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Hussein and Kim are not the citizens of modern states or the colonial subjects of modern states. They are the terrorized subjects of police states in which all (including the military, especially the military) are spied on, in which everyone is not only encouraged but forced to inform on all others, in which children inform on their parents, in which no one can be trusted not to betray, in which careless humour can earn jail, torture or death, in which family members, friends and neighbours mysteriously disappear, in which jail, torture and death are meted for impure thoughts - or just the possibility of impure thoughts, in which jail, torture and death are meted because family, friends and neighbours have impure thoughts....

In this kind of state, the "Principle of Responsibility", as you so airily formulate it, is indeed operative: rebellion is a once in a lifetime thing for you, your family , your friends, your suburb, and indeed, your generation. Your estimation of success better be accurate because the crushing reponse failure brings means folk probably won't be able to go against the tyranny for another ten or twenty years. Whole tribes, villages, cities and even all the best of a generation may be lost, to no good end. "It's a Choice, and they are Responsible for their Choice." Yes, indeed, they are.

This is the modern world, Jacob, these are not modern regimes and do not deserve to exist to terrorize their citizens and neighbours. There is no ethical reason to permit their continued existence and great ethical and practical reason for extrirpating them.

Something to ponder:

How do people get to this clandestine Archipelago? Hour by hour planes fly there, ships steer their course there, and trains thunder off to it ? but all with nary a mark on them to tell of their destination. And at ticket windows or at travel bureaus for Soviet or foreign tourists the employees would be astounded if you were to ask for a ticket to go there. They know nothing and they?ve never heard of the Archipelago as a whole or of any one of its innumerable islands.

Those who go to the Archipelago to administer it get there via the training schools of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Those who go there to be guards are conscripted via the military conscription centers.

And those who, like you and me, dear reader, go there to die, must get there solely and compulsorily via arrest.

Arrest! Need it be said that it is a breaking point in your life, a bolt of lightning which has scored a direct hit on you? That it is an unassimilable spiritual earthquake not every person can cope with, as a result of which people often slip into insanity?

The Universe has as many different centers as there are living beings in it. Each of us is a center of the Universe, and that Universe is shattered when they hiss at you: ?You are under arrest.?

If you are arrested, can anything else remain unshattered by this cataclysm?

But the darkened mind is incapable of embracing these displacements in our universe, and both the most sophisticated and the veriest simpleton among us, drawing on all life?s experience, can gasp out only: ?Me? What for??

And this is a question, which, though repeated millions and millions of times before, has yet to receive an answer.

Arrest is an instantaneous, shattering thrust, expulsion, somersault from one state into another.

We have been happily born ? or perhaps have unhappily dragged our weary way ? down the long and crooked streets of our lives, past all kinds of walls and fences made of rotting wood, rammed earth, brick, concrete, iron railings. We have never given a thought to what lies behind them. We have never tried to penetrate them with our vision or our understanding. But there is where the Gulag country begins, right next to us, two yards away from us. In addition, we have failed to notice an enormous number of closely fitted, well-disguised doors and gates in these fences. All those gates were prepared for us, every last one! And all of a sudden the fateful gate swings open, and four white male hands, unaccustomed to physical labor but nonetheless strong and tenacious, grab us by the leg, arm, collar, cap, ear, and drag us in like a sack, and the gate behind us, the gate to our past life, is slammed shut once and for all?

That?s what arrest is: it?s a blinding flash and a blow, which shifts the present instantly into the past and the impossible into omnipotent actuality.

Credit: Excerpted from Chapter 1 of The Gulag Archipelago 1918-1956: An Experiment in Literary Investigation I-II by Alesandr. I. Solzhenitsyn. English language translation copyright © 1973, 1974 by Harper & Row Publishers, Inc.


I should point out to you that Gulag Archipelago excerpts were first published in Russia in 1989 in Novy Mir. The people came into the streets after that. They came into the streets when the old terrorist regime was already a walking corpse trying to make a comeback. Remember also the army was the former prisoner of the old regime and that it finally was free and saw no reason to do its bidding. Your parallel between the Soviet Union of the 1980s and Saddam's Iraq or Kim's Korea is an error.



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (117319)10/22/2003 1:47:22 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Respond to of 281500
 
We need to establish a list of unacceptable actions, and a procedure for Shunning nation-states that break the rules. Exile from the Global Village, total non-cooperation, is (theoretically) a powerful deterrent. Embargoes would work if we could get all the major trading nations of the world, to agree ahead of time, to stop all trade of all kind, with any nation that (for instance) uses chemical weapons or does ethnic cleansing.

"Collective Security and The League!"