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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (118381)	11/3/2003 11:01:39 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi NC, Havent been around much but I am beginning to see parallels in iraq to israels experience in lebanon and frances experience in algeria rather than ours in vietnam. So perhaps some new ideas below that i have just started to entertain. I think we can win this thing in the north and south but if we dont deal with the Triangle in decisive terms, that cancer may indeed spread out. Fall back position could be the acceptance of an iran/southern iraq relationship to secure the southern areas to as far north as they can go. Perhaps some population movement out of the triangle for shiites who wish to save their arses. In the north, kurds/turks rapprochement under auspices of Wahington who has influence with both. Perhaps, kurdistan including turkish part as a separate state within turkey? Please keep in mind that i am thinking outloud here about a fall back position. I am hoping that we can gain control of the situation in the Sunni triangle but after seeing the dancing saddamite kids at the downing of the chinook and imagining the dancing fundamentalists, I am far less confident than i was when i stopped posting several months ago. If there is a three way split, the big question becomes how to contain the new Baath controlled rump state after the US and GB pull out--imo that should fall to Turkey and Iran. I am a believer in an evolving iran, so ten years down the road things may not be as bad as we imagine under this scenario. Again this is a first stab at an alternate reality so be patient with the thinking process behind it. Mike PS Also it becomes very important to me that the dems offer an acceptable candidate because the reality here is that bush can lose. I like Gephardt and have gotten over his miserable failure remarks about bush. It would have been better for him to say that his policies were miserable failures. In any case, he is a decent fellow and i judge him to be a realist on fp. I cant stand Dr. Dean probably because he seems to reflect the arrogance of so many in that profession in an earlier time. Those doctors ultimately brought us the trial lawyers and the hmo's because they wouldnt give up their exorbitant fees and their penchant for wednesday golf. And he has done a 180 on his libertarian views he ran on as the pro-gun, anti drug law guy in vt. I am interested in the responses from this crew.

To: Neocon who wrote (118381)	11/3/2003 4:48:23 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 281500

There is certainly no reason to portray Chirac's position as somehow purer than Blair's, Oh, I think we're going to discover that their is far more behind the French and Russian intransigence than is currently known. Here's a sample of a well-written Post article on the information Tarik Aziz is providing: washingtonpost.com Aziz has told interrogators that French and Russian intermediaries repeatedly assured Hussein during late 2002 and early this year that they would block a U.S.-led war through delays and vetoes at the U.N. Security Council. Later, according to Aziz, Hussein concluded after private talks with French and Russian contacts that the United States would probably wage a long air war first, as it had done in previous conflicts. By hunkering down and putting up a stiff defense, he might buy enough time to win a cease-fire brokered by Paris and Moscow. Aziz's account, while provocative, has not been corroborated by other sources, said U.S. officials involved in the interrogations. They said they were aware that Aziz might be trying to pander to his American captors' anger at French and Russian conduct before the war. If they find corroborating evidence (which NSA might already have), this could be a tremendous amount of leverage to hang over the French and Russian governments. Btw, apparently another article mentioned that "Doc-Ex" intel experts in Iraq have uncovered an archive of intelligence related records and documents that rival that of the Stasi (East Germany).. Apparently those documents were something like 9 1/2 miles high (if put in a stack). Going likely be a tremendous amount of intelligence windfall derived from that. And lots of people are going to have some explaining to do. Hawk