To: Sam Citron who wrote (10836 ) 11/11/2003 10:40:48 PM From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11057 >> WDC STX and MXO down 6, 7, and 11% respectively. Anybody know why? I think this info re Alps is very positive for WD. It implies that WD's head making op is ramping up much faster than anyone (including other head suppliers) expected. Well, faster than the naysayers expected, anyway.finance.messages.yahoo.com The following is an excerpt from a Goldman report on ALPS (dated November 7, 2003) and the problems relating to a drop in head orders from WDC as RDRT ramps up: "Alps GMR head trends and implications for TDK: According to management, it incurred a 40% mom decline in October GMR head orders from problems at a certain customer (compatibility issues between the head and media in HDD assembly). Furthermore, it is unclear whether November orders are back on track or when this might happen. This is a separate issue from WDC internal production and unique to Alps and its customer. The WDC impact, meanwhile, is starting to show up from the October-December quarter, and the company's January-March 2004 shipment plans assume a 50% reduction. While Alps suggested at the July 28 1H plan briefing that the WDC impact was unlikely to appear for the next six months, our impression from a recent WDC conference call is the impact will be coming earlier than expected. TDK, on the other hand, is still projecting a gradual impact from the second half of the January-March 2004 quarter in contrast to Alps. We think this stems from differences in GMR heads supplied to WDC. TDK will ultimately feel the impact when WDC moves to 80GB/platter production next year. With Y110/US$ forex rate assumptions, it is questionable whether Alps and TDK can maintain FY2003 sales and operating profit levels for their GMR head operations in FY2004. A key point for issue evaluation therefore is whether the companies have potential for significant earnings improvement in businesses other than GMR heads in FY2004. From this perspective, we reiterate our existing stance of selecting TDK over Alps."