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Politics : Just the Facts, Ma'am: A Compendium of Liberal Fiction -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (1091)	11/17/2003 11:11:46 AM
From: Bill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

As John Kerry said over the weekend, "Polls mean nothing."

To: American Spirit who wrote (1091)	11/17/2003 1:24:26 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 90947

Since your post was generally incoherent and failed to directly cite any verifiable fact, rather than responding to specific numbers you posted, I'll just post the recent Zogby numbers myself and see whether your claims that "now the numbers have fallen again" and "Right now most polls show Bush losing to an unnamed Democrat" are supported by zogby as you assert. When President Bush is matched against an unnamed (generic) Democratic contender, it’s a dead heat at 41% each. In September polling, Bush would have lost to a generic Democratic, 41% - 45%. Date Bush % Any Democrat % November 3 – 5, 2003 41 41 October 15 – 18, 2003 43 45 September 22-24, 2003 41 45 September 3-5, 2003 40 47 August 2003 43 43 June 2003 44 37 Seems Zogby doesn't show Bush losing to an "unnamed Democrat" after all... or even that he's losing ground lately. In fact, they show it as a toss-up and that the unnamed DEMOCRAT HAS LOST GROUND - six points over the last two months - while Bush's numbers have been essentially flat. In addition, CNN says bush's approval rating is at 52% and that this number hasn't changed in three months. Checking other sources, ABC News says: If the 2004 election were today, 48 percent of registered voters say they'd support Bush, 47 percent the Democratic nominee. But Bush will run against an actual Democrat, not a generic one, and here he fares better. He gets between 51 percent and 56 percent support among registered voters in head-to-head match-ups against any of five leading contenders for the Democratic nomination; they get anywhere from 38 percent to 43 percent support. abcnews.go.com Hmm. Against an unnamed Dem, all the sources I've checked (including those you named) say Bush has a slight margin or it's a toss-up, while against any named Dem candidate, Bush has a wide lead. Appears your "most polls show" claim is drawn from your imagination.

To: American Spirit who wrote (1091)	11/17/2003 1:42:32 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

While I was searching around various polling sources, I found this interesting tidbit from ABC News: N E W Y O R K, Nov. 4— A year from the next presidential election, the nation stands at a rare point of political parity: Across 2003 precisely equal numbers of Americans have identified themselves as Democrats, Republicans and independents, a first in 23 years of ABCNEWS polling. The year's averages — 31 percent for each group — mark an uneven but long-term rise among Republicans, to a new high, and the fewest Democrats in annual averages since 1981. All else being equal, the trends suggest continued Republican competitiveness in election politics, albeit far from the Democrats' onetime dominance in sub-presidential races. And something that's going to burn you up for sure - Gallup says VP Cheney has a 55% favorable to 33% unfavorable approval rating. How red's your face getting? Taken your blood pressure meds today? LOL. gallup.com Even more interesting - Gallup says that, at the end of October, Bush enjoyed a significantly higher approval rating among young Americans than older ones. Among 18-29-year-olds, Bush had a 63% favorable rating while the 30-plus crowd had him at 53% favorable. It also seems that young people are more trusting of the federal government in general, with 50% of the post-Vietnam age group saying they "trust the government in Washington to do what is right... just about always [or] most of the time". 36% of the 30+ group expressed that degree of trust. In another potentially shocking statistic, Gallup says significantly more young people identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, by a 30% to 24% margin. gallup.com Doesn't bode well for the angry, cynical, protest-loving, Vietnam-bred core of Democratic party support, does it? PS: As of Friday, Gallup has Bush beating Clark by 50% to 47%, Kerry, Gephart or Leiberman by 52% to 46%, and Dean by 53% to 44%. Imagine how those numbers will shift as the strong economy begins to be reflected in them. After all, one of the polls said the vast majority of voters see the economy as the #1 issue in this election.