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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4665)	1/9/2004 2:57:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

EVERYBODY HATES US TREASURYS. Not Tippett and not me. M

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4665)	1/9/2004 3:04:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

"NEW YORK - U.S. health care costs are rising so fast that not only do they outstrip the prior year, they even exceed forecasters' ability to project them In mid-2002, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services projected that national health expenditures would reach $2.8 trillion in 2011--an estimate based on a mean annual growth rate of 7.3%. Since then, the growth rate has increased significantly to 9.3%--to the point where health spending is already at nearly 15% of GDP, according to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), a unit of HHS." the rest here: forbes.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4665)	1/9/2004 3:13:01 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

There are research papers floating around predicting 1.40 EUR to the USD. It reminds me of last summer were the prediction were of 1.23 and 2 months later the EUR was 1.08. Even the ECB in it's calculation valued the EUR at around 1.17 for 2004. Would agree with you that the USD is at the end of it's move more or less. Shorting the USD was a free ride since September and now it is talked about every were . even my maid wants now to switch from USD to EUR ..... like the NAZ around 5,000

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4665)	1/9/2004 4:53:55 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

<EVERYBODY LOVES> Commodities and currencies are clearly set up for a counter-reaction, but it will be a rate increase that will cause it. I think I'm supported by the COTs on this. The "everybody loves" speculators are heavily LONG, not short Eurodollars, and they are LONG, not short 5UST. But you are right about the rest, the "everybody" crowd is way too long the Yen, gold and other commodity currencies like the Aussie and Loonie. commitmentsoftraders.com So I think this supports where I've been heading of late. It will be Prof Plum (the Fed and other CBs), with a lead pipe (surprise rate increase), in the kitchen (to support the USD, and cool off input inflation). This will cause a brief, but possibly impressive countertrend rally in the USD, and a correction in everything else that "everybody loves" (especially stocks in general). I would consider this a buying opportunity once the dancing competition clears out money.cnn.com for what I love (currencies, commodities, and gold) especially if the CB effort is half assed (likely). The shorter dated UST will not be spared, although possibly the long dated will (at least for the time being).

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4665)	1/9/2004 5:12:25 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

US$ safehaven.com For now though, the oversold dollar levels and overbought gold levels in Relativity terms are troubling. The US Dollar Index really looks like a major countertrend rally is imminent and due. And if a bear-market rally in the dollar launches, for any reason, odds are that gold is going to get hit over the short-term. Get ready! The contrarian bet today is not to run with the popular short-term media prognostications of dollar doom, but to anticipate a near-term countertrend 200dma convergence for the mighty US dollar.