Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (5280)	1/16/2004 4:45:43 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<Gold COTS> Next week will be the important one, as it will pick up the sell-off activity from the last several days. I doubt if that many specs are gone yet though. On shorts, one would think the 1Q (and even the 4Q) is going to be brutal for these companies involved in finished products. How does a Boeing, or the car companies absorb and pass on these crude and intermediate good input costs increases? Alcoa's call will be interesting next week. It's happening very fast. For instance, for food companies about 20% of their input costs are raw commodities. The fine print of the PPI yesterday was shocking in my book. The key might be to identify who can't increase prices to their consumers. Big squeeze I would say. I have seen very little on this subject as yet, which surprises me. Has anybody? I'd like to see some good articles posted on this impact. About the only way to offset these input costs is to accelerate the process of jettisoning American labor, and getting labor costs overseas.

To: ild who wrote (5280)	1/16/2004 5:23:08 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

You might want to use this site, as it give the futures WITH options in a nice clean format: commitmentsoftraders.com The specs increased their long in gold to a record 193,079 (that's as of Tues. 1/13). My God, no wonder gold finally broke. They added another 8,000 crude oil contracts to 129,299, that's a record. In the grain subtotal the specs are long 386,614 contracts. That's what this one percent FF does, encourages speculation in everything from JNPR to corn to big bets against the USD. I think it's very destabilizing, and just don't see how they unravel it without a lot of brain matter splattered against the wall? The item that stood out to me were the commercials going long 221,440 ED contracts. They doubled their exposure after the jobs number. The large spec/hedge fund community is really long EDs now.