Hello retired, Yes, I am concerned about the <<loonie>> as I am concerned about all of my non-USD currencies, but I refuse to be lured into the USD/HKD-space, my accounting base currency, however ‘risk-free’ it may seem at this juncture, because the US administration’s budget of 2.4 trillion is a number from the science of astronomy, not a number commonly seen in budgets. I also suspect that the budget is just a starting number and will grow as we progress. I do not believe there will be a regime change in November, and even if there is a change, no budget changes of consequence will be possible. Greensputin and Bush have set the course of the US, and it is full speed ahead, whatever the consequences.
Canada exports mostly to the US, and a good portion is energy. Australia exports mostly to Asia, and a good portion are minerals. US will slow, and Asia will follow. All economies will weaken when the US J6P is finally tapped out and put in a box. The question then becomes which economies will fall the hardest. I do not know the answer; I am even not certain I want to guess, and so I am at this point like a sailboat, becalmed and rudderless, with a broken engine and have no fuel. I do not know which way to go.
I sold my Canadian wheat play and added to my Canadian energy wager, favoring a dividend distributor over a capital gainer, but taking the capital gains anyway Message 19743755 <<January 28th, 2004>>.
I have sold off some Australian minerals Message 19758528 <<February 2nd, 2004>>. I will be adding to my Australian energy and wheat. Again, I do not know why, just shuffling, like regular army troops in a Mesopotamia alleyway, just trying to keep moving and not get hit.
I exchanged some CAD for AUD even though AUD has a growing trade deficit and a frothy financial and housing market, and I turned some CAD, DKK, NOK, and HKD into YEN
Message 19745044 <<January 28th, 2004>> even though the YEN is very ill, supposedly. I simply see a beauty contest of the uglies, and am trying to avoid winning a date with ugly destiny.
I am dancing around the big elephant (mind-bendingly large position relative to the rest of holdings) in the middle of my living room, Lumacom Message 18336343 <<December 14th, 2002>>, my outsized equity position that is a 10 bagger, plus or minus. I need to harvest some serious gains on this position so that I do not puke my breakfast, lunch, dinner, and stomach acid foam bubbles when the equity markets around the globe ‘corrects’. The position is of a size that, relative to prudent daily volume, it would take me many sessions to get rid of the lot. I have held off my trigger finger for an eternity, sweating all the while. This has my attention pinned.
I think, in comparison to the USD, the YEN is pretty healthy. They are manufacturing, exporting, and their (S2B) Sake2Bottles’ balance sheet is pretty robust even after all these many years of recession and deflation. Deflation in fact seemed to have been good for S2B’s financial circumstances, although it has not been great for the Japanese government balance sheet and the banks are still ill. I may add to my YEN, in the long term chart, the YEN has appreciated from 380 to the current 105, and I see no particular reason why the YEN cannot rise further, to 85 (I am not ambitious).
<<Cameco>>? I bought it here, watched it rise, was distracted and forgot to sell, and watched it come back down to a point slightly above my purchase price Message 19452670 <<October 31st, 2003>>. I bought for my metal collecting program … platinum, gold, nickel, iron, palladium, copper, silver, and uranium, or for my energy accumulation, oil, gas, coal, wind, uranium. I am OK with holding it, because I do not know.
J |
