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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45550)2/3/2004 12:34:46 PM
From: Dr. Voodoo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
It looked like for a while in the 1980's that Japan was going to take over the world. Somehow, they seemed to have hit some kind of ceiling. From what I have read and heard, most people are blaming it on the Japanize government's monetary or fiscal policies. Without having that kind of education, I can't really understand those arguments.

In my humble opinion (I have lot to be humble about), the Japanese do not have the modern day language structure and the advanced educational system, that could take Japan into the lead. They could catch up (because they are very smart and are willing to work very hard), but they can not take the lead.


1.) I would argue that in the last 10 years Japanese R&D and education are on a pace to be of the same caliber of the US(although a smaller market) within 5 years. In the area of chemistry and pharmaceutical the competition is already fierce. Some of the brightest minds in chemistry are in Japan right now.

2.) The smaller market and ceiling you refer to has part to do with scarcity of resources and labor pool IMO. Eg it's hard to brain drain english speakers. With that said, one of the things that is important to take into account from both sides of this discussion is the simple fact that once you are in the lead, it's WAY harder to stay in the lead. The closer you get to leading the way, the easier it is to fall off the mountain a little too.

3.) I think one of the points that Jay makes that is important to consider is the dichotomy between manufacturing and innovation. A round of innovation in the US would afford us another growth spurt that would again put us in the lead. But, the juggernaut that is Asian economic development has all the tools and resources at their disposal to overtake, should the proper selection pressure evolve. I happen to think it will. Chinese are much more about keeping up with the Jone's than America has been in the last 20 years.

4.) On the subject of outsourcing innovation: I don't have references that are free off the top of my head. I can PM you the whole articles if you want them. I don't consider this work to be the most innovative, but I do feel as though it is innovative in that it is developmental in providing the capital for future innovative growth. Bear in mind that these folks have none of the EPA and labor considerations we have here to slow them down. Labor costs are about 1/10th, that means I could hire 10 guys and sit around and point all day. I tend to think I could be more productive in this environment than with one guy who really knew what he was doing. Especially when part of discovery research is a simple numbers game.

pubs.acs.org

Merck Embraces Offshore Outsourcing

MICHAEL MCCOY

In the world of chemistry research outsourcing, everyone seems to know Steven M. Hutchins. Hutchins is director of outsourcing at Merck & Co. and is regarded as a savvy arranger of research help for Merck's medicinal chemists.

In May, Hutchins struck a multiyear agreement with WuXi PharmaTech that helped put the young Chinese firm on the map.

pubs.acs.org

THE FUTURE OF JOBS?
Entrepreneurship could be a key to the growth of the U.S. chemical industry at home
BY ALEXANDER H. TULLO
In Asia, the driver has been the exponential expansion of industry in China, which is attracting chemical makers that want to be closer to their future markets.

This shift is not only hitting manufacturing workers; many C&EN readers are also facing cheaper labor competition overseas. Raymond W. LeBoeuf, CEO of PPG Industries, told the Pittsburgh Technology Council last month that PPG would outsource more of its research outside the U.S. to cut costs. “The former Soviet Union is filled with world-class scientists who are happy to work for $300 a month,” he said. “The same conditions exist in China and India, and we’re actively recruiting these talented individuals in the pursuit of new products.”

Former General Electric CEO Jack F. Welch has coined the 70:70:70 rule, according to the Indian publication Business World. The rule calls for outsourcing 70% of GE’s workload, 70% of which would be offshore, and 70% of that offshore work would be done in India.

With its new John F. Welch Technology Centre in Bangalore, India, GE Plastics has been able to double its worldwide research staff to 400 while only increasing its total budget by 40%. GE says India is teeming with qualified scientists, many of them trained in the developed world.

pubs.acs.org

BUSINESS
ASIA-PACIFIC
October 22, 2001
Volume 79, Number 43
CENEAR 79 43 p. 27
ISSN 0009-2347
[Previous Story] [Next Story]
CHEMICAL FIRMS SIGN ON FOR SHANGHAI SITE
Multinational producers set plans for large-scale projects, including petrochemicals and fine chemicals

PATRICIA SHORT

For Ruan Yan Hua, president of Shanghai Chemical Industry Park (SCIP), the fields are open and the vision is clear: to build one of the world's largest chemical complexes at Caojing. The industry park is a vast greenfield site on the southernmost edge of China's largest city, on the north coast of Hangzhou Bay about 8 miles north of a China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) refinery.


December 1, 2003
Volume 81, Number 48
CENEAR 81 48 pp. 15-23
ISSN 0009-2347


pubs.acs.org

TAPPING FOREIGN BRAINS FOR PROFIT
Globalization allows drug firms to stretch their R&D budgets, possibly at expense of U.S. chemists
MICHAEL MCCOY, C&EN NORTHEAST NEWS BUREAU
JEAN-FRANÇOIS TREMBLAY, C&EN HONG KONG

In April, Discovery Partners International (DPI) announced that it would close a chemistry laboratory in Tucson, Ariz., and set up a new, lower cost facility in a developing country, later revealed to be India. The Tucson facility employed more than 40 scientists plus other support staff. Only about half of them ended up with jobs in DPI's other U.S. labs in South San Francisco and San Diego.



Voodoo



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45550)2/3/2004 1:50:52 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
You make me laugh. You make yourself such an expert even if you do NOT know anything about it. China does NOT need to develop an alphabet, China has been using an alphabet system to teach Chinese pronounciation ever since 1950! It is called HanYuPinYin.

We can easily communicate using HanYuPinYin on the Internet. Although in real life, since Chinese characters have so much essence of the Chinese culture in it, so Chinese still prefer to use Chinese characters to communicate.

And BTW, apparently, you have NO idea that using a regular computer keyboard, an average English speaker can input somewhere around 70-80 words a minute. While an average Chinese can input 200-300 words a minute. Chinese is the most efficient language, even if you disagree. And one only needs 5 basic symbols to write a Chinese character while English has to have 26 letters to spell!



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45550)2/3/2004 3:47:56 PM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Mary Cluney,
Your post is very interesting. I agree 100%, Japan's halt is not due to governments lending too much or too little, doing this or that to the yen. They are stuck because the political system is corrupt and the education system is rotten. There is a triumvirate of the Liberal Democratic Party politicians, the gangsters and real-estate/construction capitalists. Talk about cronies! These three overlap and are lifetime buddies. So why don't the Japanese people wake up? Well the education system teaches them to obey not to question, to memorize rather than to analyze to agree rather than to oppose. The science education from the bottom to the graduate schools is scandalously underfunded. Japanese university graduates widely believe that the blood types A,B,AB,O are closely related to personality. All of this all, stems from the fact that they never really had a revolution so the individuals are not used to any rights or power or effectiveness. The education system is rotten because it is feudal. Your typical high school graduate has never I mean NEVER participated in a debate. Obedience pays off. If you want something made perfectly don't go to the US or China or India or etc. Go to Japan and the obedient perfectionists will make sure that you get what you want, if possible with even more precision than you need. Some of my dearest friends are in Japan; I really feel sorry for their plight. The Chinese I know are noticeably more inventive than the Japanese, with the same characters in the written language. Chinese used to say the sky is high and the emperor is far away. In other words the emperor is not that relevant, In contrast, Japanese used to say that the emperor is God.
If the economic progress of China comes to a halt it will be because of corruption, not the language. JMHO.
Malcolm



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45550)2/3/2004 4:49:05 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Mary, ignore Yiwu. Here are court typists recording english who do 280 words per minute ilcra.org with 200 being boringly normal. Scroll down a bit to see the speeds they mention.

Yiwu is correct that 70 words per minute for normal QWERTY typing is what run of the mill typists do, but some can do 120 words per minute. The record would be faster than that.

Wubi seems to be the best chinese character input method [fastest] sciencedaily.com

But look at this new thing. One-handed input at over 100 words per minute. wangma.com.cn And easy to learn, though skill in typing would take some time to develop.

So chinese is easily input and at a better speed than the old QWERTY method. The QWERTY method needs a revamp. Maybe english needs a revamp too - it's still in its medieval form.

But from what people tell me, chinese lacks a few things which english has in the way of grammatical forms which enable more precise description.

Chinese aren't putting in 200 words per minute. 180 seems to be about the normal sort of maximum, but 100 words per minute is more normal for people who are good at it. Which is still better than the average cyberspacoid hacking away in QWERTY at maybe 50 words per minute or 30 words per minute using hunt and peck technique instead of touch typing.

Japan was in bubble mode in the 1980s, same as the USA was in bubble mode entering Y2K. Jay and co say the USA is still in bubble mode and there is going to be a Big Bubble Burst as described in Booms Bust and Recoveries [aka the Great Financial Collapse of 2001, which has notably not happened ... snicker... doomsters waiting on the top of a mountain for the second coming].

I didn't know there were such good chinese input methods. With swanky little CDMA2000 powered 1xEV-DO and GSM1x phragmented photon cyberphones, Chinese will be enjoying a much better mobile cyberspace experience than english users who will have trouble getting letters into the gadgets. That one-handed chinese input method looks good.

Mqurice



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45550)2/3/2004 8:09:59 PM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Here is the great America that used to be and many still dream of:

"Americans are innately superior to the people of other countries and that therefore they have a high destiny to fulfill in the leadership of the world's forces for peace, freedom, democracy, and --not to be forgotten-- private corporate investment and profitability."

TRIPLESPEAK
During the take-off toward a more perfect capitalism, the debasement of the language moved no slower than the abasement of the currency through creeping inflation. The myths of the cold war gave us the imagery of a "free world" that included many tyrannical regimes on one side and the "worldwide communist conspiracy" to describe the other. The "end of ideology" ideologies gave us the myth of all-powerful knowledge elites to flatter the egos of intellectuals and scientists in the service of a divided Establishment. The accelerating rise of scientific and pseudoscientific jargon fragmented social and natural scientists into small ingroups that concentrated more and more on small slices of reality, separating them more than ever before from the presumably unsophisticated (although functionally literate) working-buying classes.

In the early days of this process, George Orwell envisioned a future society in which the oligarchs of 1984 would use linguistic debasement as a conscious method of control. Hence the Party Leaders imposed doublethink on the population and set up a long-term program for developing newspeak. If Orwell were alive today, I think he would see that many of his ideas are now being incorporated in something just as sophisticated and equally fearful. I am referring to the new triplespeak: a three-tiered language of myth, jargon, and confidential straight talk.

Unlike Orwell's doublethink and newspeak, triplespeak is not part of any overall plan. It merely develops as a logical outcome of the Establishment's maturation, an essential element in the tightening of oligarchic control at the highest levels of the Golden International. Without myths, the rulers and their aides cannot maintain support at the lower levels of the major establishments, and the might itself --as well as the legitimacy of empire-- may decay. Jargon is required to spell out the accumulating complexities of military, technological, economic, political, and cultural power. Straight talk is needed to illuminate the secret processes of high decision making and confidential bargaining and to escape the traps created by myth and jargon.

Herein lie many difficulties. With so much indirection and manipulation in the structure of transnational power, there is no longer any place for the pomp and ceremony that helped foster the effulgent myths surrounding past empires --no imperial purple, no unifying queen, king, or imperial council, no mass religion or ideology to fire the emotions of dependent masses. Hence the symbolic trappings of past empires must be replaced by smaller mystifications that at least have the merit of helping maintain the self-respect and motivations of the elites at the middle and lower levels of the national Establishments. Thus the operating rules of modern capitalist empire require ascending rhetoric about economic and social development, human rights, and the self-effacing role of transnational corporations in the promotion of progress and prosperity. The more lies are told, the more important it becomes for the liars to justify themselves by deep moral commitments to high-sounding objectives that mask the pursuit of money and power. The more a country like the United States imports its prosperity from the rest of the world, the more its leaders must dedicate themselves to the sacred ideal of exporting abundance, technology, and civilization to everyone else. The further this myth may be from reality, the more significant it becomes --and the greater the need for academic notables to document its validity by bold assertion and self-styled statistical demonstration. "The might that makes right must be a different right from that of the right arm," the political scientist, Charles Merriam, stated many years ago. "It must be a might deep rooted in emotion, embedded in feelings and aspirations, in morality, in sage maxims, in forms of rationalization . . ."

Thus, in 1975 and 1976, while the long right arm of the American presidency was supporting bloody dictatorships in Chile, Brazil, Indochina, and Iran (to mention but a few), Daniel P. Moynihan, the U.S. ambassador at the United Nations, wrapped himself in the flag of liberty and human rights. His eloquent rhetoric --deeply rooted in emotion and embedded in feelings and aspirations-- set a high standard of creative myth-making. At that time, his superiors in Washington failed to realize that Moynihan's approach was, in Walter Laqueur's terms, "not a lofty and impractical endeavor, divorced from the harsh realities of world endeavor, but itself a kind of Realpolitik." Within two years, however, the next president, Jimmy Carter, seized the torch from Moynihan's hand and, without thanks or attribution, set a still higher standard by clothing the might of his cruise missile and neutron bomb in human-rights rhetoric even more deeply rooted in morality, sage maxims, and forms of rationalization.

Domestic myths are the daily bread of the restructured Radical Right and the old-style and new-style conservatives. Many of the ideologies discussed in the last section of this chapter serve not only as cover-ups for concentrated oligarchic power. They provide code words for the more unspoken, mundane myths that define unemployed people as lazy or unemployable, women, blacks and Hispanics as congenitally inferior to other people. Presidential candidates invariably propagate the myth that Americans are innately superior to the people of other countries and that therefore they have a high destiny to fulfill in the leadership of the world's forces for peace, freedom, democracy, and --not to be forgotten-- private corporate investment and profitability. Trying to flatter the voting public as a whole, they ascribe most of America's difficulties to foreign enemies or a few individuals at home --like Richard Nixon-- who have betrayed the national goodness. Not so long ago, General Westmoreland went much further when, to reassure the more naive members of the American officer corps, he soberly declared that "Despite the final failure of the South Vietnamese, the record of the American military of never having lost a war is still intact." With the arrival of [Judeo]fascism, myths like these would no longer be greeted, at least not publicly, with the degree of skepticism they still provoke. Instead, the Establishment would agree that the domestic tranquility afforded by these convenient reassurances qualified them, in contrast to more critical, less comforting diagnoses, as "responsible." As old myths get worn out or new myths punctured, still newer ones (shall we call them "myths of the month"?) are brought into being.

The momentum of jargon would not abate in a [Judeo]fascist society but move steadily ahead with the ever-increasing specialization and subspecialization in every field. New towers of Babel are, and would be, continuously erected throughout the middle and lower levels of the Establishment. Communication among the different towers, however, becomes increasingly difficult. One of the most interesting examples is the accumulation of complex, overlapping, and mystifying jargons devised by the experts in various subdivisions of communications itself (semiotics, semantics, linguistics, content analysis, information theory, telematics, computer programming, etc.), none of whom can communicate very well with all the others. In military affairs, jargon wraps otherwise unpleasant realities in a cloak of scientific objectivity. Thus, "surgical strike," "nuclear exchange," and even the colloquial "nukes" all hide the horrors of atomic warfare. The term "clean bomb" for the new neutron bomb hides the fact that although it may not send much radioactive material into the atmosphere it would kill all human life through radiation in a somewhat limited area; this makes it the dirtiest of all bombs. Similarly, in global economics the jargon of exchange rates and IMF conditions facilitates, while also concealing, the application of transnational corporate power on Third World countries. The jargon of domestic economics, as I have already shown, hides the crude realities of corporate aggrandizement, inflation, and unemployment behind a dazzling array of technical terms that develop an esprit de corps which unites the various sectors of Establishment economics.

Rising above the major portion of jargon and myth is straight talk, the blunt and unadorned language of who gets what, when and how. If money talks, as it is said, then power whispers. The language of both power and money is spoken in hushed whispers at tax-deductible luncheons or drinking hours at the plushest clubs and bars or in the well-shrouded secrecy of executive suites and boardrooms. Straight talk is never again to be recorded on Nixon-style tapes or in any memoranda that are not soon routed to the paper shredders.

As one myth succeeds another and as new forms of jargon are invented, straight talk becomes increasingly important. Particularly at the higher levels of the Establishment it is essential to deal frankly with the genuine nature of imperial alternatives and specific challenges. But the emerging precondition for imperial straight talk is secrecy. Back in 1955, Henry Kissinger might publicly refer to "our primary task of dividing the USSR and China." By the time the American presidency was making progress in this task, not only Kissinger but the bulk of foreign affairs specialists had learned the virtues of prior restraint and had carefully refrained from dealing with the subject so openly. It may be presumed that after the publication of The Crisis Democracy, Samuel Huntington learned a similar lesson and that consultants to the Trilateral Commission will never again break the Establishment's taboos by publicly calling for less democracy. Nor is it likely that in discussing human rights the American president will talk openly on the rights and privileges of American-based transnationals in other countries. Nor am I at all sure that realists like Irving Kristol, Raymond Aron, George Liska, and James Burnham will continue to be appreciated if they persist in writing boldly about the new American empire and its responsibilities. Although their "empire" is diligently distinguished from "imperialism," it will never be allowed to enter official discourse.

For imperial straight talk to mature, communication must be thoroughly protected from public scrutiny. Top elites must not only meet together frequently; they must have opportunities to work, play, and relax together for long periods of time.

Also, people from other countries must be brought into this process; otherwise there is no way to avoid the obvious misunderstandings that develop when people from different cultural backgrounds engage in efforts at genuine communication. If the elites of other countries must learn English (as they have long been doing), it is also imperative for American elites to become much more fluent in other tongues than they have ever been in the past. In any language there are niceties of expression --particularly with respect to money and power-- that are always lost or diluted if translated into another language. With or without the help of interpreters, it will be essential that serious analysis, confidential exchanges, and secret understandings be multilingual. Thus, whether American leadership matures or obsolesces, expands or contracts, English can no longer be the lingua franca of modern empire. The control of "Fortress America" would require reasonable fluency in Spanish by many top elites (although not necessarily by presidents and first ladies). Trilateral Empire, in turn, imposes more challenging --but not insuperable-- linguistic burdens.
[...]

thirdworldtraveler.com.

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