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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (13471)	2/22/2004 5:47:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95657

RtS, True, the SOX is not doing as well as we would like, and a big problem within the SOX since mid January has been the 4 semi-equips within the SOX. As shown in Message 19833943 the SOX is down 8 percent in the past 5 weeks. Going through the math, out of the 18 stocks in the index, the 4 semi-equips have been responsible for 50 percent of the decline in the SOX over this 5 week period. This weakness in the semi-equips in the SOX extends to the semi-equips in the sector as well shown by: Message 19833966 where the Group is down by 14 percent over this same 5 week period. There have been many posts written over the past several weeks that get at the issue of why the semi-equips are "taking it in the shorts". We know that several brokerages are saying that the "up cycle" in the semi-equips is going to peak in the first half of this year, with no "meaningful" further order input in the last half of this year, and a "falloff" in orders in 2005. Based on other brokerage analysis that says semi-equip stocks prices peak 6 months before order input peaks, they are recommending to sell, or at least "lighten up" on semi-equip stocks. We also know that at least one institution has sold all of their semi-equips in January(probably starting around 16 Jan) because they would rather be "early than 1 day late" in selling their semi-equips during this cycle. In other words, many entities have decided that we have come to the point in the "up cycle" of semi-equips where it is time to sell and get out - presumably to wait for the next cycle. The question is - how long is this kind of a "drag" on the SOX going to continue? I can't answer my own question, but I do think, as I posted to Cary on the AMAT thread today Message 19835644 that the CMOS CEO has it right about this cycle, ie, we have just started the upcycle during this past quarter and have a long way to go(the CMOS CEO thinks maybe another 10 quarters to go before it peaks). If this is the case, how long, in the short term, is it going to take until the entities who presently think the up cycle is coming to a close, the error of their ways, and start supporting the sector again? In other words, tell me all mighty Sultan - when will the unwashed masses come to their senses again?;) Don