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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (8550)	2/24/2004 11:15:06 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ - I have been building a position in RYJUX. It's one of the more straightforward ways I can think of to respond to the scenario you have described but am open to other suggestions. Paul

To: russwinter who wrote (8550)	2/24/2004 11:18:21 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<<<strategy for playing a bear rout of the 5 year UST>>> There are IEF - Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund and TLT - Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund. Options are available on both.

To: russwinter who wrote (8550)	2/24/2004 11:28:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Anybody have a strategy for playing a bear rout of the 5 year UST? That's where the big commercial short is. Well the strategy would be to short treasury futures. I think you will get your ass handed to you. However, since you think the move will be enormous, I would recommend puts (for your theory, not an actual recommendation to buy puts). M

To: russwinter who wrote (8550)	2/24/2004 11:45:31 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I agree 100% on an upcoming inflation shock, but am not sure when this will hit bonds. The bond market is levitating because of unprecedented CB intervention and may not go down hard until the CBs have used up their ammo. But the longer the bond market is kept artificially inflated -- the bigger the inevitable reversal IMHO.

To: russwinter who wrote (8550)	2/24/2004 12:39:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

the TNX chart still holds that rate bullish Head&Shoulders stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G if your theory holds, and I find real credence to it, then the 4.0% level will be the launching pad it has 50MA support in addition however, since August, this longterm bullish chart also shows a nearterm bearish triangle since August I stick with my most recently stated position huge upcoming volatility, pulling up rates, and pushing down rates / jim