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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13634)	2/29/2004 7:05:24 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

Don, thanks for the kind words but what I am most proud of is the not the posting of fundamental data or technical insight from Briefing.com. It is the growth that I have made in my own usage of technical and indicator analysis. Remember my suggesting that we would see a top for the SOX in January? Message 19676337 Granted I was overly cautious throughout most of this bull run but I have been making money for the most part in spite of that caution. Trouble is now that the major indices seem to be forming nice cup and handle formations from which they may possibly break out higher the SOX/SMH is showing more and more signs of a head and shoulder breakdown. I know it's not popular to be bearish when most of those who read and post here invest only on the long side but consider for a moment a few facts. Lets start with me. I am not short anything. I don't benefit in the least from writing these words. My only intent is to get everyone to spend a little extra time on the potential reality of the future for our favorite stocks. Looking at the technical situation. The most important fact is that volume on down days is much higher on up days for the SOX/SMH. It has been for 6 weeks just like your tables show. What really concerns me is that if the SOX/SMH really does undergo a head and shoulders breakdown then a lot of pressure will be put on these stocks if the SMH fails to hold at 40. Amateur Investor puts this information in chart form much better than I can do: amateur-investors.com My indicators are mixed but not good for an advance of the SOX/SMH just yet. The VIX/VXO look like they hit a minor bottom on Friday as they stretched 10% below their 10 day sma's. This along with 2 months of closes of the put to call ratio would suggest to me the the market is at risk for further profit taking even if it can manage to consolidate or even rise a bit for now. I am still concerned that we have not seen a true bear market bottom in this market. Things could get a lot uglier if I am right. Of course I know I have called 5 of the last three tops. So what do I know? JMHO, RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13634)	2/29/2004 7:15:49 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

Since 1/16, the earnings estimates have increased very substantlly at the bottom line while most stocks have decreased in value over this same period. The table below looks at each individual stock in the Group. The first 2 columns are the sum of earnings for "this year" and "next year" as they were on 1/16 and then as of today. The 3rd column shows the change in earnings estimates between the 2 dates. Note that only ASYT and DPMI had negative numbers. The last 3 columns are the prices on the 2 dates and the percent difference between the two. - DATA FROM FIRST CALL - 1/16/04 2/27/04 1/16/04 2/27/04 - 2 YEAR 2 YEAR EARNS CLOSE CLOSE PCT SYMBOL EARNS EARNS DIFF PRICE PRICE CHG AMAT* 1.47 1.94 0.47 24.41 21.25 -13 ASML 0.12 1.59 1.47 21.76 18.26 -16 ASYT -0.45 -0.95 -0.50 18.59 9.93 -47 ATMI 0.27 1.88 1.61 28.37 27.15 -4 BRKS 1.29 1.77 0.48 25.95 21.17 -18 CMOS 0.57 1.17 0.60 15.96 11.36 -29 COHU 0.58 1.79 1.21 22.22 18.93 -15 CYMI 0.65 3.79 3.14 49.30 38.46 -22 DPMI -2.09 -2.79 -0.70 23.90 22.22 -7 EGLS -2.89 -1.15 1.74 5.60 5.30 -5 FSII 0.16 0.16 7.92 7.95 0 HELX 0.37 2.18 1.81 24.93 25.81 4 KLAC* 2.79 3.48 0.69 62.10 52.71 -15 KLIC 2.23 2.56 0.33 15.20 12.45 -18 LRCX 1.44 1.84 0.40 34.24 25.57 -25 LTXX 0.49 0.97 0.48 19.12 15.49 -19 MTSN -0.05 1.40 1.45 14.26 11.91 -16 NVLS* 1.05 2.41 1.36 42.44 32.15 -24 PHTN 1.95 2.24 0.29 43.91 35.71 -19 PLAB 1.65 1.74 0.09 20.87 17.37 -17 SMTL 0.93 1.29 0.36 12.52 12.48 0 TER* -0.05 2.37 2.42 30.30 24.65 -19 UTEK 0.96 1.99 1.03 32.99 24.81 -25 VECO 0.77 2.24 1.47 32.83 29.17 -11 WFR 1.11 1.49 0.38 11.00 9.49 -14 TOTALS 15.32 37.40 22.08 640.69 531.75 -17 SOX-X 557.15 502.26 -10 COMPQX 2140.46 2029.82 -5 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX