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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (125639)	3/5/2004 7:41:27 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

It is far easier for countries like China and India to catch up on knowledge age technologies than to build industrial age infrastructure (which they are currently doing). The internet and ultra cheap communications make that possible. And the capital expense is trivial -- you basically need only human capital. Already companies like IBM are moving major parts of their basic research and development to China and India. China and India already graduate more engineers and scientists than the US, and their students' study and work habits are much better than those of US students. Don't be surprised if we lose our "knowldege age" advantage a lot faster than we lost our industrial age one.

To: Neocon who wrote (125639)	3/5/2004 11:04:56 AM
From: Rascal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

"You are what your measure." one of my favorite sayings. it is entirely possible we will remain the sole super power* for quite sometime, although it is not a slam dunk.* NewCon, It depends on how you "define" Super power. This article shows China's thought process about GDP. A economic concept I remember hearing in the early 80's..... China says good-bye to blind pursuit of GDP growth www.chinaview.cn 2004-03-04 21:05:40 BEIJING, March 4 (Xinhuanet) -- Faced with a growing gap between rich and poor and mounting environmental problems, the Chinese government is set to abandon its blind pursuit of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In the past 25 years, China has achieved an economic miracle with average GDP growth at above 8 percent every year. However, as GDP has become the main standard, or the only standard in some regions, to evaluate the government's performance, many local officials have turned a blind eye to development in other fields, including medical care, education, culture and environmental protection. Threatened by worsening unbalanced development, the government has proposed a scientific concept of development with more attention on rural and social development and environmental protection in a bid to correct the disparities. Premier Wen Jiabao said the scientific development concept focused on coordinated and sustainable economic and social development, while pushing forward the reform and development drive, to coordinate development in both urban and rural areas andin different regions, and achieve harmonious development between man and nature. GDP could not fully reflect the relationship between economic development and the environment, the environment and people, said Niu Wenyuan, chief scientist on sustainable development strategy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Some economic growth could bring about harmonious development of the economy, society and the environment, and some meant sacrificing the environment and wasting resources. But GDP always ignored to the difference between high-cost and low-cost outputs, said Niu. "A large part of China's GDP growth is achieved by exploiting resources and interests that should have belonged to our children," said Niu. Statistics provided by Niu indicated the official average 8.7 percent GDP growth rate from 1985 to 2000 should have been reducedto 6.5 percent if social and ecological costs were taken into account. "The cost of one US dollar in output in China is four to 11 times that of developed countries," said Niu. "If the current high-cost growth and serious pollution continues, China will face a heavily polluted environment and a serious shortage of natural resources in the near future, which would not support its future development," said Pan Yue, vice-director of the State Environmental Protection Administration. Pan said his administration was trying to include environmentalprotection as a major factor to evaluate the performance of local officials. Ma Kai, Minister of the State Development and Reform Commission, has said the government was considering slowing the country's GDP growth rate to 7 percent this year in a bid to cultivate a "scientific approach" to social development. Governments of some provincial-level regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, south China's Guangdong and east China's Zhejiang, have decided to take into account costs in environment, natural resources and social development in their reckoning of economic growth, under the new concept of "green" GDP. The booming Guangdong Province has decided to lower its GDP growth target 9 percent this year from 13.6 percent in 2003. "We have to change our mind concerning economic growth," said Jiao Yuejin, an official from central China's Henan Province. "Theshift will hopefully help the government to spend more on this society's weaker links." news.xinhuanet.com Rascal @YouAreWhatYouMeasure.com PS, If the USA were to do the GDP this way,I wonder the value of depleted uranium bombs, gay marriage, acid rain, chopping old growth forest , illiteracy, underfunded first responders?

To: Neocon who wrote (125639)	3/7/2004 9:07:03 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Neocon; Re: "However, there is a broad trend which seems likely to continue, namely, that the most advanced economies are going beyond industrialization to a "knowledge age" structure, dependent on high tech in telecommunication and computing." Our high tech jobs are rapidly leaving the country. Where are they migrating to? Places like India, which is now writing software for Microsoft: microsoft.com Michigan loses as tech jobs slip overseas detnews.com Tech Chiefs Defend Overseas Jobs ... In a report by a trade group for some leading technology companies, executives argued that moving jobs to countries such as China or India -- where labor costs are cheaper -- helps companies break into lucrative foreign markets and hire skilled and creative employees in countries where students perform far better than U.S. students in math and science. ... Intel Chief Executive Craig Barrett said the United States "now has to compete for every job going forward. That has not been on the table before. It had been assumed we had a lock on white-collar jobs and high-tech jobs. That is no longer the case." ... wired.com Slowdown sending tech jobs overseas The U.S. economy might be stalling, but at least one niche is hot: shipping technology jobs offshore. The economic slowdown is speeding up the export of jobs, experts say. As executives face smaller budgets and more pressure for profits, they find it much cheaper to send work to contractors overseas. More U.S. companies are following Silicon Valley's lead by shifting engineering and other technology-related jobs to places such as China, Ireland, India and the Philippines to cut costs. ... siliconvalley.com Re: "For that reason, emerging industrial giants like China will continue to be behind in the new configuration for the foreseeable future. Thus, it is entirely possible we will remain the sole super power for quite sometime, although it is not a slam dunk." We once produced 40% of the world's steel. Eventually the world caught up to it. Later, we produced >50% of the world's high tech (like televisions). Eventually the world caught up to it. Now, we produce a substantial percentage of the world's high tech, but you think that they're not going to catch up to it? I say that history proves otherwise. In fact, what history proves is that while it is possible for small countries to maintain superpower status for limited periods of time, over the long term, it is the larger countries that take the lead. Good examples of former superpowers now relegated to "power" status, include most of the nations of Europe. Even tiny Holland was once classified as a superpower. Our basic problem is that we are a tiny nation, with only about 5% of the world's population. China and Japan are catching up on technology just like we once caught up with Britain on technology, just like Japan once caught up with us. But while we were always a lot bigger than Japan, we're 1/3 the population of India and 1/4 the population of China. The numbers are not in our favor. We need to create a world diplomatic environment very different from the "superpower takes all" version that Bush has been working on. The numbers are not in our favor. -- Carl P.S. And by the way, our foreign policy should not be one that depends even on a "slam dunk", LOL.