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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/5/2004 10:00:34 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Saturday Report: It is usual that I should have a report to you on a Saturday, a day normally reserved for contemplation and fun as opposed to work and registration of undeserved gain or unforgivable loss. I just received a FedEx package on this lovely day containing one certificate representing a mind-bending wallop (six tranches!) of shares in very thinly traded China Wireless uk.finance.yahoo.com in return for no moolah and nil sweat! I will take these costless tranches onto my MS Money ledger and offset it with an equivalent but imaginary short position entry in same, so as to not count these ‘China’ and ‘Wireless’ eggs until they hatch into spend-able bread. The name ‘China Wireless’ chimes a tone? You are right: Message 19341602 <<September 25th, 2003 … On the way home, some of the troops once again got side tracked, and raided a position in China Wireless uk.finance.yahoo.com at an average cost of USD 0.85/shr … … I know absolutely nothing about China Wireless, other than the fact that its name has ‘China’ and ‘Wireless’ in it, sort of like ‘DotCom’, ‘bio’, ‘gene’, ‘tronics’ of old, and that some whisper-er is trying to do me a favor to redeem himself for a past mistake. Sounds like a good recipe for another disaster. Easy come, easy go. We shall see. ... why don't you bid up CWLC so I can get out in good form ;0) >> … and … Message 19397121 <<October 13th, 2003 … I sold my China Wireless Communications Message 19341602 <<September 25th, 2003>> at a 28% loss ;0/ The position was thankfully a small one, about 30% of the rest of the positions due to its illiquidity at time of entry. The trade was done on a worthless tip from an unsavory human slug>> I am gifted these shares by a wonderful person of strong integrity who I maligned in the earlier post as ‘human slug’. The beautifully honorable human being sent me the gift as an apology/thank for an unrelated private equity deal of his that I supported in the go-go year of 1999. The deal had gone bad and was written off long ago. I in fact wrote off the investment even before I signed the check ;0) Ah, those enticingly bubblicious days and frothy nights of 1999. If I try to dump these CWLC shares after delivering the certificate to the broker, I will have to post a few days of ‘I sold more of the unmentionable stock’ to you. I will hold them until it is time. In the mean time, as I suggested before, why don't you take a look at the beautiful company that I know nothing about, and perhaps favor it with some needed buy orders, making sure always bidding it up :0) Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/10/2004 12:04:16 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Sorry Story: I sold all of these Yanzhou Coal purchases at HKD 8.50, a 6.6% loss: Message 19875921 Message 19876006 I did so for no particular reason to do with Yanzhou or coal, but because of the attraction of cash. Chugs, Jay BTW, a coincidence I am sure :0) I saw this post on the Aussie-based chitchat room (Lumacom thread): ozestock.com.au <<Mar 8 2004 1:01:31:717PM Have a look at the 10 day 15 minute chart. Stock already shows a double bottom followed by uptrend to .38 - holding at .34 Suggest a trading range between .34 and .38 will develop. One particularly troublesome seller finished selling on 27 February, but has done a lot of damage to confidence. Firmly believe stock deserves to recover.>> I too finished selling on that date :0) Message 19854585 <<February 27th, 2004>> Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/10/2004 11:11:58 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Last Night's Report: I bought QQQ 2006 January LEAP Puts strike 35 @ USD 4.30/share (this adds to my existing QQQ 2006 January LEAP Puts strike 37 done earlier Message 19748281 <<January 29th, 2004>> and Message 19849155 <<February 25th, 2004>> I also bought a LEAP Put that I am not prepared to reveal at this juncture, but I bought it for USD 10.3/shr. Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/11/2004 4:17:02 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: I had lunch with someone who may be able to buy and sell me while taking a rest from walking their dog, if that, and a few other folks whose job is to make money from money. The words spoken at the table are, "Sell Everything, Now, for USD". I will leave you to think about how to arrange those ominous words into a neat coherent sentence. I floundered around a bit after lunch, but managed to sell the only equity I have left in HK, HK Stock Exchange, at HKD 20.40, thankful that I bought it here Message 19817983 <<February 17th, 2004>> at ( finance.yahoo.com ) HKD 20.45/shr. Its story is still good, but the environment in which the story is told has turned, oops, there is that word again, 'ominous'. Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/11/2004 11:26:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Tonight’s Report: Sold: BG Group (BRG) at USD 29.79 Message 19620430 <<December 22nd, 2003>>, win 18%; GTM at USD 40.59 Message 19565624 <<December 5th, 2003>>, win nothing; KMP at USD 44.16-17 Message 19565624 <<December 5th, 2003>>, win nothing after accounting for dividend; Co Vale Do Rio (RIO) at USD 51.80/shr Message 19598704 <<December 15th, 2003>>, losing 7%; Bought to close: INCO (N) July Call strike 45 at USD 0.50/shr Message 19638622 <<December 30th, 2003>> which were shorted at USD 2.50/shr; Phelps Dodge (PD) July Call strike 85 at USD 6.10/shr Message 19638622 <<December 30th, 2003>> which were shorted at USD 5.00/shr, losing USD 1/shr, but Sold: Phelps Dodge (PD) at USD 80.8/shr Message 19578803 <<December 9th, 2003>> which were bought at USD 68.94, winning USD 11.86/shr Also sold off a mish-mesh of leftovers and residuals: AIG, Merck, Pfizer, and Pharma Holders. Do you perhaps detect a common theme or a script in the above movements :0? Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/12/2004 1:49:13 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today’s Report: I purchased sixteen dollops (5.33 tranches - in for a penny in for a pound) of Travelsky at HKD 5.80-6.20 finance.yahoo.com . It tanked 22+% today. I had earlier traded this airline ticketing system equity Message 19508614 <<November 16th, 2003>> for an 11.72% gain over a 10-days holding period. This round trip time? I hope to complete the trip within the next week, earlier the better. Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/12/2004 8:22:52 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Last Night’s Report: I sold my tranche of Cameco, the Canadian uranium mine, for USD 46.02/sh, netting 6.6% gain off this Message 19452670 <<October 31st, 2003>>. No big gain, just continuing to rush towards cash. Do not get more alarmed ;0) I have some quick thoughts: (a) Remember the nature of the beast that is the market achamchen.com . It just reamed the folks who were betting on high gasoline prices that should be this summer, and handed them a surprise cbs.marketwatch.com *“Oil futures fell Friday to take their total loss for the week to more than $1 per barrel after the U.S. Senate moved to cancel a hefty delivery of crude oil to the nation's oil reserve.”. (b) The beast also threw up all over the gold bugs, sending USD up and gold down (DUGD), when, by all except perhaps two logics (i.e. genuine sustainable recovery, or just a trade for the pranksters), it should be GUDD. (c) The ugly untruth that ”Europe has slow growth”* is once again making the rounds, all dressed up in the same rumpled clothing, paraded about the dance floor of the Titanic, panicking the crowds who were all on one side boat to rush towards the other, away from fondling Euro and into the embrace of the Dollar. Why untruth? Untruth because higher GDP growth in the absence of productive employment gain is a faster appointment to economic hell. (d) The more leveraged the gambler, the larger the loss from last night’s dance. (e) I am anxiously waiting for the result of a not-smart wager, one where I took an outsized gamble on a dramatic and quick recovery of Travelsky, the Chinese ticketing system company, that got hammered this past Friday in Hong Kong. I want out, one way or another, win or lose, in the first few days of the coming week. The HK market on Friday was tanking from the NYSE close on Thursday, the Hang Seng index went minus 1-2% (held up by the 40% weighting of the largest shares that are actually not HK companies in the strictest sense, ie. HSBC, Petro China, China Mobile, PICC, China Life, Hutchison, etc) and the rest of the shares were punished for minus 5-6% intraday. In the case of Travelsky Message 19908422 , the market punished the company by minus 22%, thinking that 1.3 billion folks in China will stop milling around because of a terror attack in Spain. Friday close in HK, Travelsky finance.yahoo.com down 18.54%, at HKD 6.15, (equivalent to USD 0.79) Friday close in NY, Travelsky uk.finance.yahoo.com with no trade, at USD 0.94 (equivalent to HKD 7.33), the post Madrid Thursday closing price with merely 5,000 shares traded. No liquidity and therefore no indication. We cannot draw interim conclusion until Hong Kong’s Monday trading. J

To: pezz who wrote (47034)	3/15/2004 10:12:20 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: I ordered my troops camped at Travelsky Message 19911658 to put on civilian clothing, then run for their lives, or put out white flag and surrender, or act stupid and shoot themselves. I sold out my Travelsky position at HKD 5.83 average price, netting a loss of 3.5%. I simply do not have time to wait under the increasingly dire circumstances, amazingly unrealistic valuations and incredibly nonsensical interest rates. I figured it is time to admit to stupidity rather than die a financial death of a thousand cuts. In other words, I fear it is time again for terrible days after horrible nights of ever decreasing share prices. My equity is now down to 13.2% of gross asset, of which 7% (700 basis pts) is in energy and energy royalty, 410 basis points in mines of all flavors, 120 basis pts in real estate shares, and 90 basis points in this and that); 31% of equity holdings is in theory hedged via ownership of LEAP Puts (I can see this number go up to 100% in the next few days); and Cash is up to 47.9% of gross asset, of which 19.1% (1910 basis points) is non-USD. I am afraid that either US assets will drop 75% (i.e. DJIA to 3,000) or USD itself will drop 75% from this moment forward before all is well again. The buying opportunities are coming ;0) J