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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (1428)	3/6/2004 10:03:07 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, Congratulations on a Red Hot Thread this weekend. A wonderful quantity and quality of stimulating and useful material! Best, Roebear

To: mishedlo who wrote (1428)	3/7/2004 2:16:08 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

mish, another great post from Splotto. I have a few comments: Splotto's remarks in italics: So lets assume 2.8 million people a year get added to the population. Right now we are building 1.8 million homes per year. So at 68.6%, that means that 1.235 million new homes last year were occupied by the owners. To be clear, the 1.862 million units are privately owned "housing units" and include homes and multi-unit buildings. The Census Dept. estimates that in 2002 there are on average 2.6 people per household. 2.8 million new people/2.6 people per house = 1.077 homes needed per year, on average to keep up with population. This should mean the total number of housing units needed is 1.077, not New Homes (the 2.6 people per household number includes apartments). Last year 1.8+ million units were built and only 1.077 million were needed! This shows up in the following document (referenced by Splotto): census.gov On page 3, we discover that the total number of units increased by 1.54 million (why this doesn't match the 1.8 million, I don't know - 0.26 million demolished?) Of these 1.54 million units, 747,000 were owner occupied (far below the 1+ million we expected), and the remainder went vacant. Since another 229 thousand rental units were vacated in 2003 (as vacancies went up), this means the number of units vacant went up by over 1 million from 2002 to 2003!