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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (128611)	4/7/2004 5:38:29 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

<<With various alliances springing up to defend their interests and align with allies in Iraq, it looks like the positioning before WWI. Now we just need the archduke to be assassinated [maybe that Sadr guy] and it'll be all on.>>> Sadr's short realm is ending. His time would have run out at the June deadline anyway. He was forced to do something before then. So he bit the tiger in the ass and will be punished.Jail time at a minimum. After June such religious rebellions in Iraq will be legally banned and quelled with force. The Kurds have been strangely quiet over this action. But they have a "bye" for the first round of participation in the new government, and if they demand too much independence, perhaps Sadr will provide an example. As far as having enough firepower in Iraq to suppress rebellions,we have that out the wazoo, its just that too many fighting troops are being used for routine patrols, police work and training. Our relations with Saudi Arabia seem little changed, if anthing may have improved. Moving our military out kept them from being condemned by other Arabs for directly supporting the US. They still have their billions invested in US equities and we now have expanded facilities in the ME to defend them if called upon. We repected Turkeys wishes, that we not move troops across their land. And we offered to pay for improvements to their airfields. WW3?. If it happens would be over in a jiffy. ME weapons have proven almost worthless -Saddam had 800,000 tons of ammo,tanks , artillery, rockets,400k troops, and an air force (buried) for safety. He lasted 21 days. And we have 5 more carriers besides those that were moved to the Gulf. If the leaders of Iran or Syria, or Turkey, or Egypt were to interfere with Iraq, or start a war, they should sign their wills first. Big stuff we can handle, its all the wannabe dictators and religious power brokers that are being a pain. Meanwhile, as everyone knows, we got problems. Saddam turned all the prisoners loose. Baath party members still on the loose have to fear they are on a war crimes list and might be prosecuted under new Iraqi laws. Saddams soldiers now without jobs feel they may have nothing to lose. Not a good local picture. Keep it local, confined to Iraq. Sig

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (128611)	4/7/2004 10:33:03 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

I don't imagine the USA would want total conflagration across the vast oil producing areas of the region, so in the grand scheme of things, I suspect the current disturbances in Iraq are too small to cause serious disruption to continuing Cow activities in conjunction with Iraqi political development. Exactly. The disturbances are not a big deal in the big Iraqi pacification picture. They are the last kicks of a drowning crew of Baathists, extremists, and outsiders who have a vested interest in preventing a democratic government from being established by 6/30. If you wonder why Bush is so stubborn in his determination to hand over Iraq to Iraqis by 6/30, consider the fact that it is far better to draw out the enemies of such a government now, eliminate them immediately while they are relatively weak, rather than wait for them to get outside support, gather strength, etc. Kill them off now, while they're young and small. C2@moooo.com