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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Trader who wrote (29456)	5/7/2004 3:32:43 PM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

The so called respected Bank Credit Analyst is stating the same thing as Business Week and a host of others, conventional thinking. The mantra is picked up and repeated ad nauseam by all the other commentators who get on the business TV shows. I think they will get caught out. China still has Olympics to build for, then maybe this is what the market is saying, no Olympics in 2008.

To: Night Trader who wrote (29456)	5/7/2004 3:41:56 PM
From: Fishfinder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<<<<The respected macro economic advisor BCA disagrees:>>>> Is this guy not blowing into the wind? Inventories are going down down down. I really don't think that when there is no metals left in stock as everyone else predicts, that you will see copper selling at a buck. I hold with the fact that China, India, Mexico, and many other developing nations are all on the ( I want a car, I want a paved driveway to park it in, and I want a computer, and aTV and DVD, etc etc band wagon. China's for one has built a ton of infrastructure to accommodate this. I doubt they can let all this new machinery sit idle. IAnd I doubt they will, cause as we all know , the gas is running out and I think the rush is on. For What?? That I really don't know. scott

To: Night Trader who wrote (29456)	5/7/2004 5:47:59 PM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 39344

Inventories go down, but under certain conditions, demand may slide too, or prices may fall with strong demand. It is unusual, but it happens. However looking at the Asian boom, it is pretty hard to stop building once you have started. And China has a lot going on. India, with its 8% growth rate is stagnant by comparison. There are 40 billion dollar housing projects in India. China makes that look puny. Given that, demand is not likely to slow any time soon, even with a cooling of demand "imposed" by the Chinese government. Canada is relatively stagnant and has been since the 1980's. I say this despite the strong 90's housing market, which, although it continues is very brittle, and I believe more an echo from the tech boom, despite the low interest rate fuel. The US is more or less stagnant, not even doing the maintenance, but this is from the late 1980's. When I say stagnant, it is only comparative to China/India who are full-bore boom crazy. Who should be in full boom mode is Eastern Europe, but you are not hearing much out of them these days. Much of what we hear from Europe/England about lack of metal demand is horse-puckey. At a conference in London, some bank analysts were saying Indian gold demand was falling off. But in India the Indians were saying demand was good and the business booming in gold. When the Brits want to short gold, they first set the stage and trot out the Geobbels-speak. I trust what the Indians had to say. Bill Murphy corrected the Brits. I believe Murphy is right. Not that there is much one can do about it, but fundamentally he is right, about the LBMA. EC<:-}