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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (135012)	5/30/2004 8:07:14 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi quehubo; Re: "Bilow, you do not understand the situation at all. ..." It's not just me, LOL. That article you linked to provided not a shred of evidence in favor of any "massive coalition" invading Saudi Arabia and taking over their oil fields, LOL. You're lost in fantasyland without a link to support you but all you can do is tell me that I don't understand the situation, LOL. Re: "When Islamofascists make a significant successful strike on oil exports their will be a physical shortage that may take many quarters to restore, not days. ... economic dislocation will be as severe as the price shocks sent by OPEC through the 1970's." Try to get keep your fantasy straight. On the one hand you're suggesting that a loss of Saudi oil in the 1970s was restored in "days", which is not true, but on the the other, you're admitting that the price shocks lasted "through the 1970s". Re: "This time we have no way out other than fighting. in the 1970's we still had Alaska and the North Sea." Alaska and the North Sea didn't open up until long after 1973. Hell, the TransAlaska pipeline didn't complete until 1977. US oil production, including Alaska, was 9,441 thousand barrels per day in 1972, before the oil shock of 1973. In no year after 1973 was US oil production ever higher than 9,208, it's 1973 figure. Here's the figures from the DOE, where the inadequacy of the Alaska production is clear: eia.doe.gov As far as the North Sea, the first oil from it came ashore in 1975, two years after the oil shock of 1973. Re: "The military can be much bigger, after a large strike on oil supplies the people of many countries will be more than adequately motivated to do what is needed to protect oil supplies." This is just more fantasy logic. Iraq has already proved to us that it is impossible for us to remove oil by force. The actions of insurgents will not only prevent us from stealing Saudi Arabia's oil, they will probably shut down production in the other Arab territories. All we would get from such a military adventure is what we've already obtained from Iraq: body bags, and higher oil prices. Already the adventure in Iraq has reduced the amount of oil available on the market. It would require complete idiots to amplify the situation in the presence of the lesson of Iraq. Hey, if we hadn't gone into Iraq, and Saudi Arabia had gone nuts, you could make a case that we would go into Saudi Arabia, but it's too late now. First, we don't have the troops, but more importantly, we're no longer as naive as we once were. -- Carl

To: quehubo who wrote (135012)	5/30/2004 9:37:55 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Que, that's silly. <This time we have no way out other than fighting. in the 1970's we still had Alaska and the North Sea. The military can be much bigger, after a large strike on oil supplies the people of many countries will be more than adequately motivated to do what is needed to protect oil supplies. > The better way out is to raise prices, share SUVs, buy little cars, insulation, move closer to work, wear some wool. I know it's a novel concept, but in some free countries we have what is called a market, where people set prices according to supply and demand. When things are in short supply, the prices are bid up. When there's lots of something and production cost is low, the price is lower. We don't go and shoot the tomato farmer and steal his tomatoes because there is a poor season and prices go up, or somebody carelessly sprayed a large area with a herbicide instead of a pesticide. What we do is bid for the available tomatoes and the highest bidder gets the fruit. The same novel principle can be applied to crude oil. In the event that Saudi Arabian oil is stopped, the remaining supplies from around the world would be bid for and the highest bidders would get the oil. The rest of us would ride a bicycle, catch a bus, buy a Segway, walk, do the job in cyberspace, turn down the thermostat and put on some insulation, turn off the air-conditioner, share a lift to work, buy a small car, buy a wind turbine or photovoltaic panels, grow ethanol crops and so on. No problem. There is no need to go shooting and bombing another swarm of people and still get nowhere. Having a lot of dead people and no oil is even worse than just adjusting to the shortage of supply. I should patent that supply/demand/price auction idea. Mqurice