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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: glenn_a who wrote (15334)	6/16/2004 5:21:21 AM
From: glenn_a	Respond to of 110194

Re: Endgame ... I think lambeth-place's post a few days back echoes (probably much better) what I am starting to feel: Message 20217646 Sorry, been away for a few days. Just catching up. glenn

To: glenn_a who wrote (15334)	6/16/2004 8:11:16 AM
From: David Zgodzinski	Respond to of 110194

the current economical mantra, repeated just yesterday by Greenspan with a Mona Lisa smile, is that the economy has momentum. The implication is that it's got the kinetic energy to withstand a rate hike or three and still keep growing. Add to that the demand from faster growing nations and you have a background for demand driven inflation, which the Fed continues to fuel. But if the Fed starts increasing rates just as the credit boom is peaking, and the housing market flattens and groans under the weight of higher mortgage rates and gasoline charges ignite credit card bills, and consumers get cold feet all of a sudden, then you get that moment - looking over the canyon..... you're Evil (Allan) Kneivel. Have you got enough momentum? How will you react?

To: glenn_a who wrote (15334)	6/16/2004 10:30:54 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

<So (a) what's the endgame here? And (b) what's the likely timeframe for the "end game" scenario to unravel?> You have two drivers: 1. full scale money printing, 2 shortages, that to me points to severe F3IP (fully funded fed inflation program) price rationing in key commodities. I think you key on just a few indicators and try and ignore MoP noise. Indicators are the regularly inventory reports on copper, lead, nickel, tin, kitcometals.com nat gas, and oil, and secondly the ACTIONS (not talk) of the Fed. Actions are not so much the rates that everybody is focused on, but debt monetization, federalreserve.gov and permanent and temporary market activities. ny.frb.org bullandbearwise.com Thirdly keep an eye on spec positions, commitmentsoftraders.com as you need to be somewhat careful of "offside trades", where everybody is already in the water. Then just strap on a seat belt.