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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (30232)	8/11/2004 3:11:01 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<there doesn't appear to be a T. Boone Pickens,> must be somebody out there

To: russwinter who wrote (30232)	8/11/2004 4:05:32 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

< think it's a perfect prescription for even worsen shortages for years to come. > Exactly. The bull market in commodities in its in infancy, I think. So is the Asian economic boom. I look for the 2005-2012 period to be the most profitable ever for those participating in the sector. Thanks to China and India. As for why the market doesn't recognize this... I think the current crop of analysts belongs to the tech bull market of of 1982-2000 and has not yet waken up. Miners?? well there are very few metals bug in there I think. And most don't believe metals have something special going. This sentiment is changing slowly.

To: russwinter who wrote (30232)	8/11/2004 5:40:04 PM
From: alburk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Russ If a US economic downturn is in the works, a significant downturn, could that explain this lack of concern about diminishing resource supply/inventories. If the US consumer hits the wall, what happens to China? If China has excess capacity, isn't there a double whammy--less demand for resources for 1) exported goods and 2) to expand the Chinese infrastructure. And, if the US consumer drops out, who steps in to replace it? You have said (paraphrasing) that it would take a major slowdown to avoid severe shortages. Could this "double whammy" effect do it in the intermediate term? Granted, in the short run shortages may occur, but if the shortages are perceived as temporary due to an oncoming and significant reduction in demand, the development plays would garner little respect. The commodity prices would spike, but the development plays may not respond until the market is convinced that intermediate remains in tact. Any thoughts? Just trying to come up with a plausible explanation here. Andy