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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (13483)	10/16/2004 8:12:22 AM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish. Really enjoyed your Minyanville post. Certainly resonates with my current sense of things. Where is the Minyanville forum if I may ask? Could you provide a link? Thanks and regards, Glenn

To: mishedlo who wrote (13483)	10/16/2004 8:33:42 AM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

So we have deflation and then inflation-I had thought it was going to be just the opposite

To: mishedlo who wrote (13483)	10/16/2004 9:43:35 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

Mike, Fantastic post, couldn't agree more. If inflation were really imminent, we would see gold prices moving $50 per day. Rather, smart money is accumulating for protection against a US Dollar devaluation which will be proceeded by inflation perhaps in 2006/07 or even later. But that's down the road, first we need to get a nasty traditional recession out of the way. I fully expect US T-bonds to be the best performing investment over the next two years. This will be the time to buy a house at a low rate (if you can get the loan). Those who are hoarding cash (like myself) should reap the dividends soon enough.

To: mishedlo who wrote (13483)	10/18/2004 1:52:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Email Reply From Heinz on my Minyanville post. Hi Mike, thanks & very good - i fully agree of course. my only doubts concern one point - namely that the 1.75% FF rate means rates have been normalized. i'm inclined to believe they're already way ahead of the curve, i.e. too tight. as an aside, i'm convinced the housing/mortgage credit bubble is teetering on the brink right here and now. the collapse should finally begin, accelerate in '05, and stand in full bloom in '06. the signs are unmistakable. the deflationists have ecome lone voices - which raises my confidence that they will be correct. btw., even the most eloquent inflationists who present the most cogent and convincing arguments (e.g. Saville, Bugos) trip over the issue of the housing boom. for their theory to be consistent they can't admit that this boom will end and result in falling prices. it's their achilles heel. btw., Japanese land prices have declined the 13th year in a row, by 5.2% - lower than the 5.6% decline of the previous year. whip out a calculator and check what 5.5% price declines compounded over 13 years mean. it's a truly breath-taking collapse. in '89 it was conventional wisdom that land prices in Japan would NEVER decline, due to the 'shortage of land'. regards, hb PS: the inflationistas obviously don't see that rising commodity prices are ultimately deflationary in a deflationary era. imo the rise in the crude oil price will hasten the arrival of DEflation, not inflation.