Hello David, <<Buffett … owns a healthy position in PTR … Did you follow him on that trade?>>
No, of course not, ACF Mike most certainly did not follow Buffett on that trade in early 2003, and he definitely did fail to anticipate the obvious trade that Buffett would/should/could have made … [EDIT: gold and cash were also unusual vocations back in November of 2000 :0) ]
Message 14760610
<<November 8th, 2000
… I have retreated to 9% equity and short a bunch of NEM and SWC puts … I had newly bought some Sinopec (386.hk) and PetroChina (857.hk) shares …
… Cash is not king. Cash will be everything.>>
… and again
Message 18163858
<<October 27th, 2002>>
… and here is the rest of the pessimistic script, except for the part about selling :0) …
Message 18882108
<<April 25th, 2003
… Today I doubled my LTBH position in PetroChina @ HKD 1.64/shr.
The way the position was built up is as follows:
(a) Bought a dollop on October 30th, 2000, at HKD 1.66/shr
(b) Shorted 4 dollops of PTR March strike 20 puts on October 9th, 2002, at USD 1.30/shr
(c) Bought another dollop on November 27th, 2002, at HKD 1.50
(d) Sold a dollop on January 8th, 2003, at HKD 1.55
(e) 4 dollops of PTR March puts expired worthless, allowing me to recognize premium proceeds as earned income.
(f) Collected HKD 0.24/shr of dividends since October 30th, 2000
So, the new aggregate average cost is HKD 1.30, with the older lot having a cost basis of HKD 0.95/shr.
I doubled my PetroChina bet not because I know what is going on through diligent micro research, but because my original macro-view that enabled my starting stake has been validated by interim dividend of 15% in 28 months, and now, confirmed by Mr. Omaha Message 18881372 .
Chugs, Jay
References: …
… and here is the sordid sell epilog
Message 19221008
<<August 18th, 2003
… PetroChina/857 at 2.35 (bought at HKD 1.64/shr Message 18882108 April 25th, 2003)>>
… and then, an encore, a sort of kiss before the heave ho :0)
Message 19596639
<<December 14th, 2003
bought … Petro China finance.yahoo.com at HKD 3.475/shr
… added more …
Message 19601413
December 16th, 2003
Petro China finance.yahoo.com at HKD 3.40/shr
My reasoning is again simple, commodity inflation is on full steam in China, and now, an added reason, because the city-slicker HK crowds do not yet understand ;0) >>
… the ‘heave ho’ post script …
Message 19634464
<<December 29th, 2003
I unloaded much of my China shares on the market.
I am not sure exactly why, although I can make a lot of excuses based on fundamentals (SARS, Taiwan, N.Korea, China breaking economy, etc). Since they are just excuses, I will not bother. The thing about excuses is that it is better to use them before others do.
I am not able to decipher the technical to make any sense, and so I will not try.
I guess I am just feeling uncomfortable even though I believe the fundamental values of the shares are still good (P/E, dividend).
I simply am happy with my latest refill on China profit, and I do not wish to be holding these shares while I abscond into the sunny hemisphere for vacation.
I doubt I will enjoy my vacation much if I have to stay glued to the CNBC channel and trying to stay up during happy napping hour because I need to save my dollops from trials by fire. We are playing with real moolah, and not chestnuts ;0)
I also do not wish to be holding these shares through the usually slap-happy first quarter since 2004 first quarter may not turn out to be a usual one.
And, I guess another reason is I do not want to be holding these chips again until, oh, say sometime during the summer?
Here is the tally:
… I unloaded my three dollops of Petro China finance.yahoo.com at HKD 3.95/shr, accumulated at an average cost of HKD 3.24/shr, taking home a gain of 21.9% via an weighted average holding period of 20 days>>
Petro China sits at HKD 4.15 now. Not a lot of moolah was left on the table, and when compared to the stuffing gorged down, mere scraps.
I adore ACF Mike and appreciate his occasional presence. He makes SI even more fun than it already is :0)
Chugs, Jay |
