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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mjuarez who wrote (138362)	11/1/2004 1:31:00 AM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Marcos I have to agree with you here. AMD over-promised at that time. Remember, this was almost 2 years ago, when Jerry was still running the show. Hector, however, has characterized himself for under-promising and over-delivering. I agree. AMD investors should rejoice that Jerry is gone. I know I do. The projections were overly optimistic and I don't really put that much emphasis on it. I just bring it up from time to time to remind investors to not believe everything they hear. Even with this 1.5 year slip (I believe Fab30 will be practically 100% 90nm by June of next year), AMD is way ahead of Intel, in both performance, power dissipation and price-performance, in the desktop arena. Intel is still ahead in the mobile space, but AMD is gaining rapidly with Sempron and Athlon64. I don't place much emphasis on this either. The quantities AMD can deliver are pretty small so owning the benchmark crown is much more show that anything else. I'm thinking that mobile is where the volume is heading and there Intel still has a significant advantage and it's not just show. They can deliver limitless quantities.

To: mjuarez who wrote (138362)	11/1/2004 1:54:16 AM
From: KeithDust2000	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

mjuarez, Even with this 1.5 year slip (I believe Fab30 will be practically 100% 90nm by June of next year) No, the conversion is going much slower than that. Only 50% of wafer outs is supposed to be 90nm by that time. This is what Hector said: Physically, we should be able to ramp totally to factory by the end of next year, to be totally converted to 90-nanometers. If there is not total conversion, it will be mostly because there might be some remnants of products that cannot be transitioned from a few customers. AMD´s 90nm conversion seems very slow and should trail INTEL´s by about 12 months (while being about 8 months behind with first market availability). That´s why I think, with INTEL´s accelerated (and intended to be aggressive) dual-core desktop schedule, plus AMD being the only one with dual-core server chips in 2005, plus all the other factors I mentioned earlier, it might make sense for AMD to tap IBM now for additional 90nm K8 shipments already in H1 next year. They might blow a unique opportunity if they don´t. But of course that´s just imho.