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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (16934)	11/27/2004 1:06:02 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

Wonder why so many Americans borrow<g>?--"ACNielsen Finds U.S. Consumers Short on Cash As Important Holiday Selling Period Begins" Twenty-Eight Market Study Shows U.S. Consumers Most Strapped 24 November 2004 Schaumburg, IL Many U.S. consumers say they are strapped for cash this holiday season, a development that could point to a moderate holiday selling period, according to a new study from ACNielsen, a leading provider of consumer and marketplace information. In fact, of the 28 markets around the world surveyed by ACNielsen, the U.S. had the highest percentage of consumers (28%) who say they have no extra money to spend. Among U.S. consumers who do have spare cash, their first priority for that money is debt repayment. As indicated in the chart below, the percentage of U.S. consumers choosing debt repayment (33%) was significantly higher than that of consumers in either of the other two major regions studied. Overall, the U.S. ranked seventh for debt repayment among the 28 markets included in the survey. Once you have covered your essential living expenses, which of the following statements best describes how you normally spend your spare cash? U.S. //Total European Region //Total Asia-Pacific Region I have no spare cash 28% 12% 8% Pay off debts, credit cards, loans 33% 25% 29% Out of home entertainment 29% 37% 32% Savings/deposit account 23% 34% 49% New clothes 21% 33% 28% Home improvements, decorating 20% 33% 17% New technology 10% 24% 26% Short holiday locally 10% 16% 20% Stock/mutual fund 5% 8% 14% International holidays 2% 22% 14% Source: ACNielsen "When it comes to spending money, you can never count U.S. consumers out; their willingness to take on debt is legendary,” said Tom Markert, ACNielsen’s chief marketing and client service officer. “However, this study adds to a considerable body of research indicating that U.S. consumers are nearing a financial breaking point, pointing to at least a moderate holiday selling season this year.” In the U.S., women were more likely than men (30% vs. 22%) to say that they have no spare cash, while men were more likely than women (36% vs. 32%) to say that they use such money to pay off debts. As for specific purchases people make with spare cash, U.S. men were much more likely than women to indicate that they spend it on new technology (20% vs. 8%). There were differences by age as well, with older respondents more likely to say that they have no spare cash and younger respondents more likely to say that they spend extra money on debt repayment. Respondents on both ends of the age spectrum were more likely than those in the middle to build savings with spare cash. Younger people were more likely to spend it on out of home entertainment, clothing, and technology. While savings was the third-highest-ranking choice (at 23%) for U.S. consumers who have extra funds, the U.S. tied with Portugal as having the lowest overall percentage of consumers who put such money into savings. Globally, here is the number one market for each of the spending options and a look at where the U.S. ranks among the 28 markets surveyed: No spare cash: the U.S. – 28% (Portugal ranked second at 18%) Out of home entertainment: Spain – 60% (U.S. ranked tied for 19th) New clothes: Netherlands – 51% (U.S. ranked tied for 21st) New technology: China – 52% (U.S. ranked 25th) Home improvements/decorating: Denmark – 46% (U.S. ranked tied for 16th) Short holidays locally: China – 35% (U.S. ranked 25th) International holidays: Singapore – 33% (U.S. ranked 27th) Paying off debts/credit cards/loans: Tie between Malaysia and the Philippines – 45% (U.S. tied for 7th) Savings/deposit account: Indonesia – 59% (U.S. tied for last) Stock/mutual fund: Taiwan – 32% (U.S. ranked 23rd) The ACNielsen research was conducted in October via the Internet* among 14,000 consumers in 28 markets across Asia Pacific, Europe and the U.S. To see an overview of the entire ACNielsen Global Consumer Confidence & Opinions Survey please visit acnielsen.com. *In Vietnam, the survey was conducted in person. us.acnielsen.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (16934)	11/27/2004 1:25:08 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Not sure how you go from my reference to "resource crisis" to "labor shortage", or what the confusion is, but I see my point as quite clear. China has far outstripped it's input and support capacity. I would describe it as "turning out the lights". gasandoil.com Check out your longer term prospects too. 340 GWE of installed electric generation base, except consumption in 2004 was up 16% (much covered by using distillates for power generation, as coal is maxing out). The big hydro projects are expected to come on line at end of decade (if they can find the steel and copper) and will add only 34 GWE, nuclear by 2020 will bring on 36 GWE. So that's about 2% output growth a year. The only way China can support even 4% GDP growth from this level are big petroleum imports, and from where? world-nuclear.org