Hello CB, an update on Russia and China ... (looks like Rice and Rumsfeld succeeding in achieving what Mao and Breznev could not, namely an alliance of Russian energy and Chinese enthusiasm, and a collaboration of Russian technology and Chinese manufacturing, leading to ... what is that word I used to mumble? ... oh, yes, TeoTwawKi :0) ...
Russia, China: Is a Strategic Alliance Finally Forming?
Feb 15, 2005
stratfor.biz
Summary
Russia and China have agreed to greatly increase Russian oil delivery to China and to create a mechanism for bilateral security consultation at the highest level. These two moves could help create a nightmare scenario for Washington, which up to now has considered a Moscow-Beijing alliance only talk.
Analysis
Since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, a formal alliance between Russia and China has been a theoretical ideal. Although both countries have talked about it for years, neither has taken any practical steps toward a strategic partnership -- at least, not until now. In February, Moscow and Beijing began taking what could be the first steps toward making a Sino-Russian alliance a reality.
First, Russia decided to significantly increase oil deliveries to China and to do so immediately, not even waiting for a pipeline to be built. Though China still will have to struggle to get oil from other sources, a large ingestion of Russian oil will help nourish the energy-hungry Asian giant. Second, Moscow and Beijing have decided to form a high-level mechanism for bilateral security talks. This arrangement between Russia's Security Council and the Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo will coordinate both countries' responses to common strategic threats, with U.S. actions foremost in mind.
If these moves are followed by others in the next few months, a genuine Moscow-Beijing alliance could come into being. If these steps prove to be isolated -- an example of occasional collaboration -- a formal alliance between Russia and China will remain mainly on paper.
Both Moscow and Beijing feel threatened by the growing dominance of the United States, now the world's only superpower. In their minds, U.S. dominance leaves no room for China to emerge as a world leader or for Russia to resume its former superpower role. Russia and China both know that, separately, neither country will be able to challenge Washington in the foreseeable future. There always has been the idea of forging an alliance -- an idea that has proven easier said than done. Fearing betrayal from the other, and both wanting to maintain good relations with Washington, Russia and China have never been able to get beyond the talking stage.
The times, however, are changing. With the deep U.S.-led Western penetration into the former Soviet Union -- in particular Ukraine -- Russian President Vladimir Putin is backed into a corner. He must choose whether to continue on the pro-U.S. path, which could lead his country to geopolitical oblivion, or try to revive Russia's former glory. Putin knows that, if he chooses the latter course, Russia would be too weak to travel it alone. Although there are still certain areas of mistrust between Russia and China, and Russia would enter an alliance today in a relatively weakened state, Putin probably has no choice but to seek China's cooperation.
The strategic purpose of the arrangement between Russia's Security Council and the Chinese Politburo's Military Commission is for these two decision-making bodies to discuss, agree on and implement joint or coordinated actions -- political and military -- to protect the countries' joint interests. Sources close to Russia's Security Council say recommending countermeasures to check the U.S. geopolitical "offensive" in Eurasia will be perhaps the forum's most important job.
Russia and China also are planning to conduct their first joint military training exercises. The maneuvers, which might involve naval war games, are scheduled to be held in August in China's Liaodong Peninsula, Russian military sources say.
On the energy front, while the media frenzy focuses on where the Chinese money that paid for the oil will end up, the most important fact is overlooked: Chinese and Russians are finally cooperating on energy supplies. Without a pipeline between the two countries, Russia is upgrading its Transbaikal railway, which should allow it to increase its oil exports to China five-fold by 2006.
In addition, Russia is likely to announce in May the decision to build a branch off its Pacific pipeline from East Siberia southward to deliver oil to China. The Russian government plans to have the line completed by 2009.
Other Russian infrastructure improvements designed to facilitate the flow of oil to China include doubling the capacity of Zabaikalsk, a border railway station on the way to China, so it can handle 30 cargo trains in one direction by 2010. In addition, the 217-mile route from Krymskaya to Zabaikalsk will be fully electrified by 2007. There is an agreement that this project will be financed by Russian private banks with their returns covered by oil transportation fees. The Russians also are starting to build an oil terminal at Krymskaya, which would make it easier to load oil trains.
Through these measures, Russia plans to sharply increase its oil exports to China from the current 3 million to 15 million tons per year by 2006 and to continue with sharp increases in the following years.
Of course, these measures alone are not enough to indicate a strategic partnership in the making. New, bolder, more dramatic steps must follow for the world to see a genuine alliance between Russia and China. And Washington, most certainly, will not be sitting idly by.
Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.
Reprint Rights:
Articles from Stratfor may not be reproduced in multiple copies, in either print or electronic form, without the express written permission of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. For mass reprint permission or content licensing, please e-mail marketing@stratfor.com for more information.
|
