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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (25651)	12/7/2004 12:49:09 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

In the final analysis though, if this Spring does prove to be the top, most of those those who purchased after 6/16/2001 will certainly end up in a loss position.

To: ild who wrote (25651)	12/7/2004 1:21:27 AM
From: damainman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

"They are 100% they will make good $$$ on it" That's what strikes me the most too about the speculators. Tops are too hard to call tho- remember the days when stock investors bought every dip thinking it was temporary? I suspect the real estate bubble will go through the same thing until the "bargain hunters" who buy on the dip get waxed. As for the homebuilding stocks, the high short interest and put/call ratios combined with the relatively low floats virtually guarantee that they will continue to go up. Bzh is a lock to split and cause more pain for its crowd of shorts.

To: ild who wrote (25651)	12/7/2004 8:46:38 AM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 306849

Bubbles can and do last longer than anyone expects. As an example Patron started this RE Crash thread on 6/16/2001 and he thought that RE crash was imminent. How little did he know about RE bubbles. -g- My guess is that coming spring will show if RE prices can still significantly advance one aspect of the rise of RE as investment that i do not recall being discussed here has been the weakening of the USD europeans especially have been buying up (bidding up) property on the coasts because of the 20 to 25% 'discount' due to the currency exchange rate (hot money has also flowed into RE in china, where the currency is pegged to the dollar) of course wrt residential RE, these investors basically drive prices on the margins, not being the principal demand source....however as we have seen in previous bubbles...that marginal demand once it exits can have a profound effect on prices a strengthening dollar in 2005 may just be the needle that pricks the bubble (where there is one...like politics, all RE is 'local')

To: ild who wrote (25651)	12/7/2004 6:22:59 PM
From: David Jones	Respond to of 306849

>>>>..taking out HELOC to buy a house...<<<< Yes and I think the 9% may be conservative. Last week I went to see my accountant and discuss selling the unit I'm in sense it will be two years come Feb 17th. My question to him was where are his high end clients "he has a bunch" putting cash and with a grin he said real estate. I'm leaving a rental open for myself come February and I'm running in circles trying to make up my mind. Now this is not a complaint I'm grateful to have such problems but I am frustrated with my indecision.