Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (57151)	12/12/2004 6:41:02 AM
From: twmoore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Where were articles like this when the price of oil was running from $30 to $55? Be prepared to see more articles about a glut in oil supplies.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (57151)	12/12/2004 7:24:19 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Thanks Mq, Those were a couple of interesting charts. Re: so has-beens can still be growing while it's time to dump them as investment opportunities. Oil at only 40% of primary energy production is not ruling the roost. If reserves are growing and the peak in production is not at hand, as you've previously stated, why would you say that it's time to dump oil investments as has-beens? Your twin positions seem utterly contradictory.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (57151)	12/13/2004 1:53:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<It's a bit like I've been calling GSM a has-been while GSM has continued to maintain overwhelming dominance over CDMA. From an investing point of view it's important to be ahead of the game, so has-beens can still be growing while it's time to dump them as investment opportunities.> Ray, various oil investments will no doubt be excellent. But at $50 a barrel, oil prices are sure to fall and at $40 they are still high. I just meant that like GSM, which is still growing and ascendant, bigger investment returns are likely to be in the developing technologies rather than the declining ones [like oil and horseshoes are still profitable but cars have earned a lot more money over the past century]. But as Warren Buffett showed, there's a lot of money to be made in boring old stuff if bought at the right price. There's plenty of money to be lost in the exciting new things which don't sell [Globalstar for example, and Eurotunnel]. Mqurice