Tsunamis may be unifying event
By Daniel Altman International Herald Tribune
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
As coastal residents in southern and southeastern Asia sort through the remains of their homes and businesses, experts gauging the long-term effects of the tsunamis say they may not all be negative, especially where political and economic factors intersect.
In Sri Lanka, for example, the challenge posed by a natural disaster could conceivably help create common ground between the government and the Tamil rebels who control much of the northern part of the country.
"This has affected a very narrow strip all the way around the coast," said Alessandro Pio, the country director for the Asian Development Bank in Colombo. "It's a disaster that affects both the north and the south, both of the parties in the civil war."
As a result, Pio said, cooperation between the two sides may be logical or even necessary from a logistical standpoint.
The effects of such cooperation could be far-reaching. Five years ago, earthquakes in Greece and Turkey began a political thaw that has arguably culminated in Turkey's candidacy for the European Union.
In Indonesia, the government this week lifted a ban on international aid to Aceh, where separatists have been fighting a guerrilla war for a quarter-century.
"I'm hoping that this will generate a certain feeling of national unity in trying to respond together to this adversity," Pio said of Sri Lanka's tragedy. "That's really one of the pivot factors in terms of the economy taking off on a higher growth path."
In India, despite the fact that the tsunamis were the first for decades, they may become part of an ongoing learning process for dealing with natural catastrophes. In particular, they present an opportunity for the government to show that it is serious about preparing homes, businesses, public buildings and other infrastructure for future disasters.
"In general, the approach to disaster management in India has changed considerably," said G Padmanabhan, an emergency analyst at the United Nations Development Program in Delhi. He said that building laws and regulations had been modified to require disaster-proof construction, but that more officials needed training in enforcement and engineering techniques.
"The government has recently started programs to train people," he said. "I hope in the reconstruction process they will enforce these, so we don't recreate this vulnerability."
An early implementation of the new laws came in the state of Gujarat, which experienced a severe earthquake almost four years ago. "There was a big hospital completely destroyed by the earthquake in 2001," Padmanabhan said. "The new hospital constructed in the same site is fully earthquake resistant."
In addition, Padmanabhan said, the government is creating a system to monitor potential tsunamis. "That would be a useful thing, because we don't know if it could happen again," he said. He added that while lasting effects on the Indian economy might be few, the tsunamis would become part of a learning experience that began with floods and earthquakes in recent years.
The chance that tsunamis will return, perhaps as a result of aftershocks from this week's earthquake, could also affect rebuilding decisions, said Claire Rubin, senior research scientist at the Institute for Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management at George Washington University in Washington.
"You would have this dilemma of where to rebuild your ports, or where you keep your fishing fleet," she said. "You have to rebuild next to the water, but you're likely to have it go out again." Some choices could even affect an economy's long-run earning potential. In cases where the destruction has been particularly thorough, "they may decide that place is not going to be rebuilt."
In the United States, Rubin said, rebuilding decisions have depended on a balance of risks. After a tsunami swept through Valdez, Alaska, in 1964, the state supported rebuilding at a higher elevation. Yet after Hurricane Iniki destroyed hotels overlooking beaches in Hawaii in 1992, just 10 years after Hurricane Iwa devastated the area, the owners rebuilt in exactly the same spots. "They put things right back, with their scenic ocean view," Rubin said. "They made a certain calculation."
For local economies that depend entirely on tourism, these are momentous decisions. "The question is, how long will it take for them to rebuild the infrastructure in order to prevent people from moving away from these regions and looking for new employment prospects?" said Simon Quijano-Evans, a senior emerging markets analyst at HVB Group in Vienna.
Given the differences between the countries hit by the tsunamis, the size of these effects is likely to vary. Because of the rarity of tsunamis in Sri Lanka, Pio said, he did not expect problems with tourism beyond this season. "People will remember this, but it's not something that you'd think will be recurring fairly frequently," he said.
Longer-lasting effects could occur in the insurance industry, but Pio warned that it was too early to tell whether the brunt of claims would affect domestic rather than international backers. So far, major global insurers have predicted fairly modest liabilities. Munich Re, the biggest of the reinsurers, on Tuesday forecast claims of less than €100 million, or $136 million.
Governments and outside organizations are just beginning to assess the extent of the damage to their economies. In Thailand, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said repairs could total 20 billion baht, or more than $500 million. Almost as much may be spent by India, according to an estimate from ICRA, a rating agency there. The governments' finances are solid enough to prevent problems in international markets, Quijano-Evans of HVB Group said.
iht.com |
