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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (157008)	1/26/2005 9:14:47 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Do you see an impending post election split in the insurgency itself with some nationalists choosing to play in the new government having gained some leverage in the non-participation in the election? I have this feeling that the nationalists may end up doing/attempting a Black September on the insurgents in order to gain favor and for ultimate self protection as well. The other side of the coin is that a continued united insurgency will lead to conflict with the shiaa and their kurd allies and a bloody civil war period until they are eventually defeated even if iran participates on the shiaa side in some fashion. US/Iranian relations can warm in such a situation. Iran may feel surrounded by US forces but the biggest threat to the shiaa is ultimately from bin laden. It reminds me of nazi-soviet pact and then its horrific aftermath. It is a battle that will be engaged at some point. mike

To: Bilow who wrote (157008)	1/26/2005 9:23:56 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Carl, Eventually, I hope that we use the elections as an excuse to pull out. No such luck, IMO. The Bush admin will stay at least until 2006--Nov or Dec. Why then? Because of what happens on the first Tuesday of Nov 2006. Will have nothing to do with Iraq itself. The only thing that will make them leave before that is if the situation deteriorates so badly that even Republicans see what is going on in Iraq as a civil war rather than an "insurgency," as they characterize it now. Hagel is already starting to come to that view, I think (not there yet, but getting there). More seasoned stauch "traditional" Republicans like Lugar and Warner will have to come to agree with him. Of course if helicopters full of marines keep crashing for whatever reason (the adverse "Iraqi weather", malfunction or being shot down), it could change as well. But the Bush admin will at least try their best to hold out until after the 2006 elections, using it to rally their supporters once again, just as they did in 2002.