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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (24363)	2/25/2005 10:15:24 AM
From: Chispas	Respond to of 116555

Rear View Economics - George Ure ... .. .. .. ... ... ... .... ```````````````````````````````````````````````````````` We noticed this morning that a report is out saying the economy did better than expected during the fourth quarter of 2004. LINK. While it's nice to know that the government has a rosy picture, it's equally important to realize that such reports, by their very nature, are what I call "rearview economics." Meaning: They may tell you what went on some period in what are now historical times, but they are both old and therefore have diminishing predictive value. Such reports are always fascinating to watch, however, because they bring into focus one of the great lies about investors. The "lie:" is that "stock markets look out a year or more into the future, assess the conditions that are most likely then based on efficient market theory, and deliver a perfect price in today's dollars. If you believe this, you'd better be sprucing up for the Easter Bunny, because the facts don't support the conclusion. When the market here's good news about recent history, it is almost sure to rally (at least early today) and do so in the face of scarier, more recent reports. Like the drops in leading indicators and confidence which are more recent and more on point. So it is that the people's economist offers you a chance to watch the behavior of the markets and ask yourself: "Gee, is the market looking at the future in a reasonable way, or are the markets really future oriented only as far as next week's economic report?" I'd suggest the latter because the market is not about judgment (old Alan Greenspan's favorite synonym for "guess"). Rather, it's about short term greed and the quest for the "greater fools" who would buy stocks when the future is cloudy and the outcome unclear. Our view continues to be that inflation - the kind that makes rear holes in your family's checkbook - will be much higher than "official reports" and that at least for now, our expectation is for much higher inflation ahead and with it, a decline in the real standard of living. That's what the market wants to forget when "rear view reports" come out. It's the difference between ahead of the pack, or under it. We're still down 30 points from last week's close at today's open, so you know what the hype will be. urbansurvival.com

To: Chispas who wrote (24363)	2/25/2005 10:17:54 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (10) \| Respond to of 116555

Rio Tinto and CRVD (RIO) raised prices of iron ore sold to Japan by 71.5% this year. The Chinese warned them that this was good in the short term, but could hurt markets longer term. In other words, the Chinese don't want to pay the market price. They would find other alternatives. Methinks they are full of crap on this one. Please pay up and keep making me rich. <G> BTW, in no way is this inflationary.

To: Chispas who wrote (24363)	2/25/2005 10:58:09 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

>>Between 2005 and 2050, population growth in eight countries - India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States, Ethiopia and China - is likely to make up half the world's increase, the report said.<< Put China and India in the same group is sort of misleading. China's pop. will be topped in 2025 at 1.44 billion or so, and will decrease to 1.39 billion or so by 2050. By comparison, India's pop. will increase all the way, and will surpass China's by 2030 (5 years earlier than previously projected), and will reach to nearly 1.6 billion population. So my bet is that those who are so bullish on India and screaming India's economic growth will surpass China will likely be disappointed<g>