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To: stock bull who wrote (174710)	4/15/2005 9:39:28 PM
From: Patrick E.McDaniel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176388

A friend who was close to retirement gave up and sold everything at the bottom in 1987. This resulted in a much poorer retirement. If he had kept his cool the market would have bounced back 40% in days and 100% in 6 months. A Black Monday works for me. I don't desire it nor do I expect it but if it happens I'll move in when all hope is lost. Sometimes it pays to swim upstream.

To: stock bull who wrote (174710)	4/15/2005 10:43:14 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

<< I came across a very interesting observation. The performance of the market this week, especially the last three days, matches the performance of the market that preceded "Black Monday" in August 1987. On "Black Monday" the Dow went down 22.61%. >> Nice reminder. Its my opinion that this market can move very swiftly and probably down cause I cant see any reason to go up. Like an overloaded passenger liner, where people rush from side to side and cause it to sink. Like the Titanic, no, lets forget that one . But I was there on black monday, with 3 buy orders in of which 2 got filled, Ford and AIR. So it might be useful to put in a few low-down limit buys. Sig

To: stock bull who wrote (174710)	4/16/2005 5:17:40 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176388

.<<Those interested in reading stock market charts should check out the Dow's chart for 1987. Study a Bar Chart and look closely at the week preceding "Black Monday".>> Thats a very astute observation, a possible parallel to Black Monday Similarities I find are these. (although the market is 4 times high, I multiplied the 1987 changes only by 2, and not by 4. Figures are approximate. 1987........ 2005 October......April, Dow changes 6 +187.....+28 7 +24......+61 12-22......-23 13+74......+51 14 -192...-103 15 -114...-125 16 -219...-196 19 -1016 ... ??? Eerie, to say the least Other oommonalties are that before the crash of 1987 the market was flat for 8 months, today it has been flat for 7 months This could indicate that people were undecided and thus very responsive to a new indicated market direction,which applies today In addition , October 1987 was the beginning of a new earnings season, and so is April of 2005 And earnings may not have been looking good then, and IBM says this season is not looking so good either. So thats the bad news, The good news is that the odds of a repeat of Black Monday on any particular day is less than 1/3,650. Sig