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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (156946)	4/19/2005 4:39:36 PM
From: I_Banker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

From the press release, it all looks good for Intel. A bit of a problem for AMD may be the success of Centrino, though that is a high class problem. Let's wait and see what is revealed on the conference call.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (156946)	4/19/2005 4:56:00 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin Cap spending increase for 65nm? I would think that intel got enough capacity not rush.... Otherwise it's good -AK

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (156946)	4/19/2005 6:46:38 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"Well, I don't really see anything bad in Intel's report. Anyone see anything bad? Well for one thing INTC's YOY revenues are up 17% vs. 31% for AMD's CPG division and down 2% sequentially vs. +1% for AMD's CPG division. (I doubt that flash no's included in INTC's revenues, if taken out would change these percentage comparisons given that flash is about 5.1% of Q1/05 revenues) Let's not forget that INTC has 1 additional week of revenues in this year's no's. Conclusion: 1. AMD is gaining revenue market share in the CPG sector. AMD's gain in unit share in percentage terms is probably twice as great as its revenue share increase, inasmuch as AMD's ASP's are about 1/2 of INTC's. 2. INTC's Q2 GM is expected to be 56% down from Q1's 59.3% as Q2 revenues are expected to decline another 2% sequentially. Looks like INTC is anticipating strengthening AMD CPG competition.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (156946)	4/19/2005 8:10:47 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

"Anyone see anything bad? What really stands out for me is that INTC's net PP&E is a whopping $16.32B compared to AMD's $4.3B and yet AMD is going to have 100M unit/annum capacity when Fab 36 comes on stream to compete in the 180M unit market, of which AMD's current capacity is approx. 35M units/annum. That's right, once Fab 36 comes on stream AMD's $4.3B PP&E will have capacity to provide 50% of the market's annual unit consumption. Raises the question: In a relative sense, aren't INTC's fabs about $12B overvalued in their financials? (If so, perhaps that may explain how INTC can manufacture stable earnings over time.) Additionally, INTC is sitting with $3.7B in Goodwill (is that the JFTC goodwill? :)on its balance sheet vs. AMD's Goodwill of $0. Summing up then, AMD will be able to supply 50% of the market with superior product when Fab 36 comes on stream for around $5B. Currently INTC requires a whopping PP&E of $16.32B to supply 80% of the CPG market and supply its chipsets. Drop out $1.3B for chipsets, leaving $15B PP&E to supply its 80% of the CPG market. Pro-rating, that's implies about $10B of INTC PP&E to supply 50% of the CPG market, or about twice the cost/unit as AMD. Imagine if these seemingly overinflated PP&E INTC assets had to be written down, not to mention the $3.7B goodwill. Dunno, about you guys, but on a comparative basis I'd say INTC's PP&E assets are overstated by $5B and the (JFTC?) Goodwill by $3.7B. In total, from an AMD comparative viewpoint, INTC is currently showing assets overstated by $8B to $10B. That $9B in unexpensed asset, then, represents an awful lot of overstated profit over the past few quarters. Nice that it's legal though.