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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14720)	5/2/2005 9:55:38 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Carl, I am sure you saw this by now: Chip Sales Soared in Q1 The worldwide semiconductor business reported an increase of 13.2 percent in sales. redherring.com “The unexpected strength of semiconductor sales is a good sign for the industry,” said SIA President George Scalise. Semiconductor sales were stronger than expected. The first quarter is traditionally a slow one because it follows the holiday season. But the industry reported a 0.4 percent increase in revenue from $55.1 billion for the fourth quarter last year. To the best of my knowledge, the analysts were not expecting such a good showing in Q1. PC shipment growth is a smaller(and shrinking) part of IC sales, as I am sure you are aware.....this sector is no longer wholly dependent on the growth rate of PC's. Re: on this thread have less information at their fingertips than they do. And, even if you have the data, I suspect they are much better at interpreting it. I have listened to the questions on many CC's posed by these analysts, and quite honestly much of the time what they ask is not only NOT insightful, but was already covered or is a known issue that will not be disclosed by management. In short, I think many here could (and would) pose more insightful questions. The analysts have proven, time and again(ON THE RECORD), that they are woefully behind the curve. You can play the part of apologist for them if you want, but someone as intelligent as yourself should probably not want to. JMHO. And on the subject of analyst insight, please see: home.comcast.net Do insightful people upgrade on the peaks and downgrade in the valleys?;-) Their record is open for all to see....and it AIN'T pretty. Re: Have you ever talked to one of the analysts? I don't think I need to....the above chart speaks volumes. Brian

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14720)	5/2/2005 10:40:50 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Could it be that companies are delaying their purchases of PC/Servers until the dual core- 64 bit-Longhorn operating system get launched in full? If so we could expect a lull even though the replacement cycle from the Y2K purchases are due? Rich

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14720)	5/2/2005 10:53:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

HI Carl, I don't know what you think I don't get. PC sales were estimated to drop(sales rate) in Q1 and they surprised to the upside(sales rate). SIA now says they may have been too negative -duh It's all spin - in a growth market that is inevitable. I don't listen to sell side analysts as their conflicts are obvious and times track record shows them to be corrupt. If you want to invest on their "best calls" go ahead - but don't be throwin down on my long term experience of not listening to these liars and contortionists of the english language. These are the brains that extrapolated wealth forever in March of 2000. They now call a decline in rate of growth the same as a reduction in bottom line profit - at least the inference of the headlines is negative when the stockholders equity has in fact gone up - most directly from the result of growing cash hordes. Sooner or later these declining market scenarios will result in cash exceeding the price of the underlining stock. If you don't get that - listen to your buds. It a sure one way ticket to the BK house. These guys are clueless.They were in 98 just before the best turnaround in history - they still are. Me I'm just a conservative guy who likes to invest in growth markets where the companies have no debt and are building asset wealth. It may be long term and it may be boring - but when the next 2-3 bagger hits this sector - It will be once again obvious and if you are listening to those with the blinders on - it will be way TOO LATE. No skin off me if you like their advice - hope you profit from it. My bet is I'll be selling to you. Bob

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14720)	5/2/2005 10:57:23 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

>> The growth rate is slowing. That bothers the market. Everyone in the industry knows this. Why is it so difficult to grasp? Hi Carl, That is hard to grasp because it means that growth will continue (to be positive), but people should be disappointed about it. If my retail store was selling $40k/month in '03. Then $50k/month in '04, then $60k/month in 05, is that a reason to be disappointed ? For sure the growth rate is slowing. But so what ? Especially if my '05 profit is higher than my '04. >> If I interpret it correctly he said, "PC shipments will be higher." How's that for a forecast? << It is far better than the BS of analysts forecasting 60% increase, then downgrading everything because the actual increase was less. >> PC growth was projected to be higher - 60% higher than the current rate. Yes, the growth rate for the Q1 is positive but it was originally expected to be 17%. In fact, we had this discussion weeks ago. These kind of forecasts are misleading. i.e if PC sales were 30m units in Q1 '04, and I forecast 30,000,003 units in Q1 of 05, but the actual sales were 30,000,001, then the growth rate "slowdown" is 60%. But how is that meaningful for anyone's profits ? The further fallacy in these growth rate forecasts is that nothing can grow at the projected rates indefinitely. These rates are set up to bring on disappointment. What we want from analysts is to make a considered forecast of a company's earnings and competitive position. (not just regurgitate the CC "guidance"). If the uncertainties are too much for that, then they should stick to what they are sure about. Such as "PC shipments will be higher in Q2 than Q1". Sarmad

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14720)	5/4/2005 3:35:02 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

>> The growth rate is slowing. That bothers the market. Everyone in the industry knows this. Why is it so difficult to grasp? Back in January Bears Sterns cut IC growth projections for 2005 (based on percent) because the baseline 2004 came in stronger than expected (of course by that time nobody really gave rat's ass that 2004 actually exceeded). A higher baseline (2004) combined with "slow" growth could lead to the same figure compared to a weaker baseline with "faster" growthrate. So ironically by not having a crash the chance to re - accelerate (combined with buzzword "growth") is eliminated. It appears that the growth pattern for IC sales is changing; global IC sales consist of many different segments compared to the past when memory requirements and CPU were the key driver; home.comcast.net