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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33584)	7/13/2005 11:45:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Increased Tax Receipts Reduce Deficit The biggest jump was not from taxes withheld from salaries but from quarterly payments on investment gains and business earnings, which were up 20 percent this year. That was similar, though much smaller than a sharp rise in tax revenue during the stock market boom of the late 1990's, which was followed by plunges in revenue when the market bubble burst. nytimes.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33584)	7/13/2005 11:52:54 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

US trade gap unexpectedly shrinks 2.7 pct news.yahoo.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33584)	7/13/2005 11:58:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Energy Department´s U.S. inventories data Wednesday, July 13, 2005 3:30:02 PM afxpress.com Energy Department's U.S. inventories data A MarketWatch bulletin e-mailed to subscribers at 10:33 a.m. Eastern time July 13 incorrectly reported that distillates supplies had declined along with weekly crude-oil and gasoline inventories. Distillates inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels, according to the U.S. Department of Energy

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33584)	7/13/2005 12:02:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. trade deficit slims unexpectedly on record exports - Wednesday, July 13, 2005 2:18:20 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Stronger demand for U.S. products overseas and lower energy costs at home helped to reduce the trade deficit in May, the Commerce Department said Wednesday The trade deficit narrowed 2.8% in May to $55.3 billion, and was below the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of $57.0 billion. The deficit has stabilized after setting a record of $60.1 billion in February As a result, economists expect net exports to start contributing positively to gross domestic product in the second quarter. The trade gap subtracted 0.6 of a percentage point from first-quarter GDP growth Jay Feldman, economist at Credit Suisse First Boston, said the trade report caused him to raise his second-quarter growth estimate to 3.8% from his earlier estimate of 3.2% The Commerce Department also revised the trade deficit for April slightly lower, to $56.9 billion from an initial estimate of $57 billion May's exports reached a new record, while imports slipped. In particular, exports rose 0.2% to $106.9 billion, with imports falling 0.9% to $162.2 billion Exports of agricultural products, consumer goods and industrial supplies increased in May The increase in exports is impressive in part because it came despite a drop in exports of civilian aircraft. Exports in this volatile sector fell 28.4% to $2.3 billion Imports of goods alone fell 1.2% to $135.3 billion. The decline in imports was led by industrial supplies, primarily crude oil, and by capital goods Imports of consumer goods remained strong in May, rising 0.7% to $34.0 billion Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics, said the sluggish trend in imports could be a bad sign, implying weak domestic demand Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said imports ex-oil and aircraft have stalled since January. "Only part of this can be blamed on softer domestic demand; the rest is a bit of a mystery," Shepherdson said Mixed energy picture The nation's petroleum deficit narrowed 8.7% to $15.8 billion, the lowest level since January. Some of this may be due to lower prices for imported oil last month: The average price per barrel of oil fell to $43.08 in May from a record $44.76 in April The U.S. imported 318.6 million barrels of crude oil in May, equating to 10.3 million barrels per day, up from 313.8 million in April The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $15.8 billion in May compared with $14.7 billion in April and $12.2 billion in May 2004 Some analysts weren't impressed by the narrowing deficit. They noted that much of the improvement in May was due to the lower cost of oil, which would only be a temporary cure Indeed, in a separate report, the Labor Department said import prices rose in June on a rebound in crude-oil prices

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33584)	7/13/2005 12:07:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Tough for OPEC to Boost Output When Extra Oil Unwanted slb.com Archived Story by Karen Matusic Mon, Jul 11, 2005 21:06 GMT WASHINGTON - OPEC will have a tough time making good on its pledge to boost production to cool off prices when refiners are reluctant to boost already-ample inventories as long as prices stay high. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer and the only member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with any significant unused production capacity, told contract customers in Europe and the U.S. at the weekend to expect similar volumes in August as those they received in July. A Saudi oil industry source says the kingdom has kept its production unchanged for months at about 9.5 million barrels a day because of a lack of buying interest for the 1.5 million b/d of Saudi high-sulfur crude left in reserve. "It is hard for us to do anything about the high prices when our offers for more crude are turned down," the Saudi source said. He echoed comments made repeatedly by Saudi oil Minister Ali Naimi that prices are high because of a lack of refining capacity to process the heavy, high sulfur crude the Saudis and other OPEC members from the Persian Gulf have left. U.S. oil prices soared above $60 a barrel last week amid concerns that Hurricane Dennis, the first hurricane to hit the U.S. during July - early in the Atlantic hurricane season - in the last 150 years, would hit key oil and gas installations along the U.S. Gulf Coast. But prices slipped to below $59/bbl on Monday after Dennis turned out to have no lasting impact on supplies. Though OPEC has pledged to boost its production ceiling by 500,000 b/d if global oil prices remain high, OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad Fahad Al Sabah cast doubts on Saturday that the group would actually put more barrels on a market he says is already getting nearly 1 million b/d more than it is consuming. "If the market needs it, which I doubt, we will directly increase our production," said Al Sabah, who is also Kuwait's oil minister, as he announced plans to resume talks with fellow OPEC ministers about possible output increases. Analyst Ken Miller of Houston-based Purvin and Gertz says Naimi and the other OPEC ministers have a point about refining constraints. He said the kind of conversion capacity needed to enable refiners to make Saudi high-sulfur crude into cleaner-burning refined products is limited, especially in refineries outside the U.S. "Conversion capacity is full and everything is balanced out in relation to what refiners are running in terms of crude," Miller said. "The cokers are already full, and they won't be able to produce the light products they need because they do not have the spare conversion capacity, so the heavier crudes are a detriment." But traders at some of the big lifters of Saudi crude in the U.S. say they could run more Saudi oil -- at the right price. "The Saudis did make some adjustments to their contract prices but not enough to make us ask for a lot more oil," a trader at a major U.S. oil company said. "We are happy with the Saudi oil we have now and we can pick up more on the spot market from Africa or Latin America or even the domestic U.S. crude." After drawing criticism in the U.S. for raising its contract prices steeply over the past two months, state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (SOI.YY), or Aramco, last week deepened the discount it will charge U.S. refiners in August by as much as $1 a barrel under July levels. Aramco slashed the August price of Arab Heavy to the U.S. by $1 from July contract levels, but traders with refiners regularly buying Saudi crude point out that the move doesn't wipe out Aramco's steep price hikes over the past couple of months. Those increases took Arab Heavy to $9.45 under WTI in July from $13.55 under WTI in May. At the same time, the price of WTI has risen more than $5 since Aramco last set its monthly contract prices. Saudi crude grades exported to the U.S. are priced at a differential to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate. WTI is a light, sweet domestic crude that has less sulfur than oil pumped by Saudi Arabia and other Mideast Gulf producers and is more valuable in terms of its yield of refined products like gasoline, jet fuel and middle distillate. Saudi Oil Minister Naimi made it clear last month that there wasn't a market right now for the extra oil and that the kingdom wouldn't pump oil it can't sell. Crude inventories in all three major refining regions are comfortable, physical markets are well supplied and demand has held steady for months. After averaging about 1.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2004, Saudi shipments to the U.S. rose to about 1.57 million b/d in the first quarter but have been drifting lower since, according to U.S. government data. U.S. refiners' demand for crude oil peaks this time of year, easing off in the autumn and rising to lower heights in the winter.