I don't see how demand can outstrip supply.
Lots can demand; we can't always get what we want. Somebody, without money, won't see their demands met... until there is demand destruction.
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Peak Oil, taking down nations one at a time.
Saturday, September 24, 2005
If you think 3$ gasoline is expensive, think again.
The calculations indicate that oil would have to go to US$129 per barrel before Japan suffered a shock comparable to the 1979 second oil price shock. By contrast, the US and EU were far more vulnerable, as prices would only have to go to US$81 or US$77, respectively, before they suffered damage on the scale of 1979 and afterwards. Before prices went to those latter levels, the EU and the US would presumably do their utmost to bring them down. Japan could thus count on its western allies to act as tripwires and mobilize on oil prices long before it was forced to. Source: Global Public Media
Those prices will come to reality sooner than most people think, possibly during winter 2005. The latest would be at the start of the driving season next summer. What I know is that 2006 will determine the energy and economic future of the entire planet. You probably have remarked that I talk a lot about the United States in my blog. You should know that peak oil is hurting the United States just a little bit right now. For every economic disaster in history, the first nations touched are always the poorest. Let's see the economic situation in Zimbabwe, Africa.
Just to make my point clear, the situation in Zimbabwe is not typical. They have made many mistakes in the past years that have led to economic chaos in that country.
They are currently paying 36$ a gallon for gasoline.
that's right, 36$ a gallon. For those running a 36 MPG vehicle, that's 1$ a mile. If you run a SUV, that's a leg a mile.
By last week, nearly all buses and commuter taxis in the capitol, Harare , had stopped running, forcing tens of thousands to walk to work. While there are still a lot of private cars on the road, they are being fueled with $36 a gallon black market gasoline. Municipal services have stopped. There are no trash collections, no ambulances, or operating public works vehicles. Only one fire truck has any fuel left. The police immediately commandeer any fuel they come across. Clean water and electricity are available sporadically. Hospitals are out of supplies and the staff is fleeing. What was once one of the cleanest, most modern cities in Africa is nearly finished.
more...
Message 21754739
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Sunday, July 24, 2005
Fuel Riots - coming soon to a town near you
Yemen has been the latest country to have to endure fuel riots. Also living through the sharp edge of the onset of peak oil are Nicaragua and Indonesia. If we combine that with the unrest in Bolivia over the sale of natural gas assets, throw in The Nigerian delta for good measure, and of course Iraq, we are up to 6 hotspots in the fire-front of oil depletion.
Out of interest, while finding the hyperlinks above I typed 'fuel riots' into Google. Many of the stories were about Yemen, but there were also stories about Iraq, Nigeria and others from the last 7 years. when do we expect to see Los Angeles, or London.
Message 21575302
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Pre KatrinaRitaWilma...
Below the radar of even the most attentive newspaper readers, however, the first stirrings of peak oil reality are starting to trickle in. Not surprisingly, most of these reports come from the poorer parts of the world where $60 oil is simply too much for fragile economies.
Here are a few of the items:
• Last week the BBC reported that dozens were killed in fuel RIOTS across Yemen when the government withdrew subsidies resulting in dramatic price increases.
• All across Indonesia people were lining up at gas stations in response to developing fuel shortages. In one city, half the public transport was inoperable due to a lack of fuel.
• In Zimbabwe , the government has moved to deregulate fuel procurement in the face of severe shortages: waits of hours for buses, gas lines that are blocks long, and a bread shortage. The black market price for gasoline is now ten times the official rate.
• Nearly all the poorer countries make their electricity using diesel generators. Nicaragua , one of the poorest countries in Central America , recently started blacking out the poorer districts between 7 and 10 p.m. , the hours of peak usage.
• Tanzania , with the highest gasoline taxes in East Africa and a chaotic oil marketing system, is seeing its plans for economic growth "suffocated" by high-priced oil. Tanzania also handles fuel for the landlocked states of Malawi , Rwanda , the Eastern Congo , Burundi and Uganda .
• And closer to home, Maxjet put off plans to offer cheap flights from Baltimore to London until spring when the company hopes fuel prices will be cheaper.
At mid-summer, the supply-demand situation remains about the same. OPEC is supposed to be increasing its daily output by some 500K barrels a day and there is evidence from increased tanker charters that this indeed may be happening. In the meantime, production in the non-OPEC countries seems to have dropped by a collective 1.2 million barrels a day below the IEA forecasts for the first half.
Message 21560454 |
