Republican Unity Frays as Lawmakers Brace for Election Fights
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- When Republican U.S. Representative John Sweeney ran for re-election in 2004, President George W. Bush was on his way to winning a second term and Sweeney enjoyed a huge money edge over his Democratic opponent, raising $1.39 million to her $22,823.
As he looks to 2006, the New York lawmaker can't breathe so easily. Bush's record-low approval ratings, along with mounting questions about the war in Iraq, have bolstered the Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the House next November. Sweeney faces a challenger, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand, who has raised $120,000 so far, more than the combined total of his three previous opponents.
``For the first time since he was elected, he has a race that he has to pay attention to,'' said Amy Walter, House editor of the Washington-based Cook Political Report, which analyzes congressional races.
Political analysts and activists say Sweeney is among about a dozen Republicans, mostly from states that went Democratic in 2004, who may face closer races next year than they have in the past. Those elections are a key reason that House Republican leaders are having a tougher time holding their party together.
Sweeney joined 13 other Republican lawmakers last week to vote against a deficit-reduction measure backed by Bush that cuts $50 billion from Medicaid and other benefits programs. It barely squeaked by on a 217-215 vote.
Hours earlier, 22 Republicans helped defeat a $142.5 billion spending plan for the departments of Labor, Education and Health and Human Services. The legislation, rejected on a 224-209 vote, would have cut $1.4 billion from last year's funding level and stripped about $1 billion in pet projects that benefit lawmakers' districts.
`Toss-Up' Races
Republicans who voted against the cuts included Representatives Heather Wilson of New Mexico and Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, whose races are both rated ``toss-up'' by the Cook report.
Brian Riedl, a budget analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said the Republicans who oppose benefit cuts may make it difficult for the House and Senate to negotiate a final spending-cut package, and may complicate efforts to unify the party behind Bush's spending-cut agenda next year. The cuts are the cornerstone of Bush's drive to narrow the deficit, which was $319 billion last year. In 2000, the year before Bush took office, the U.S. had a surplus of $236 billion.
``Typically, election years see more spending increases than non-election years,'' said Riedl. ``If anything, this year was the most likely to see conservative budget reforms.''
Loss of DeLay
The tough competition for these incumbents only adds to party-discipline challenges for Republican leaders after the loss, at least for now, of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, an enforcer of party unity. Republican defeats in this month's New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and Bush's low approval ratings - - 37 percent, according to a Nov. 11-13 Gallup poll -- only add to the likelihood of defections, said John Berthoud, president of the National Taxpayers Union.
``To the extent that Bush has been weakened, it's limited his clout and ability to enforce discipline,'' said Berthoud, whose Alexandria, Virginia, group backs smaller government.
Sweeney said policy, not politics, drove his decision to vote against the budget cuts. He said that many constituents in his upstate New York district receive Medicaid benefits, and he wasn't able to negotiate enough changes to the measure to allow him to support it.
``I think we frankly just ran out of time to do what I need to do to protect the citizens I represent,'' said Sweeney, who won his last election with 66 percent of the vote. Bush carried his district in 2000 and 2004.
New Mexico Incumbent
Wilson, a former Air Force officer and the first female military veteran to serve in Congress, has never won an election with more than 55 percent of the vote in her five terms. Democrats have recruited New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, who is Hispanic, to run against her in a district where about half of the voters are Latino. Wilson voted against the benefits-cut and Labor-HHS measures.
``It's her toughest opponent in what may be her toughest political climate ever,'' Walter said.
Another lawmaker who voted against both measures, Representative Rob Simmons, a Connecticut Republican, faces former State Senator Joe Courtney, his challenger in 2002, when Simmons won with 54 percent of the vote. The district gave Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry 54 percent of its vote in 2004.
Bob Ney
Even some lawmakers in heavily Republican districts defected. Representative Bob Ney, an Ohio Republican, voted against the spending cuts. Ney, who will likely face Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer in 2006, received a subpoena for records earlier this month from the Justice Department, which is probing his ties with Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff. His legal jeopardy increased on Nov. 21 when Abramoff's ex-partner, Michael Scanlon, pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors. Ney has denied any wrongdoing.
Walter said Ney faces a ``very volatile'' situation because of the probe, Bush's low approval ratings and a rare-coin investment scandal that has dogged Republican Governor Robert Taft.
Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the Republican defections on votes show that the Democrats' efforts to recruit strong candidates for 2006 races are paying off. Democrats hold 202 of the House's 435 seats and are working to expand the number of competitive races in hopes of picking up the 218 seats needed to control the chamber.
`Rubber Stamp'
``These guys have been a rubber stamp for the president and his policies,'' Emanuel said of Republican lawmakers. ``They face tougher races.''
Still, Republicans and some analysts say Democrats face significant hurdles, because congressional redistricting after the 2000 Census decreased the number of competitive districts. The Cook report so far lists just 27 House races as potentially competitive in 2006. Walter said Democrats will need to increase that number to at least 50 to regain a House majority, which they lost in 1994.
Representative Tom Reynolds of New York, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that while there are about four dozen competitive races today, he believes that will narrow to about three dozen by Election Day as voters become familiar with candidates.
``We're going to be in the majority,'' Reynolds told reporters Friday. ``I just can't tell you how many.''
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