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To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/29/2005 10:27:41 PM
From: dave9  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Gutsy call. I don't think -we- should apologize.

I would not recommend turning over Iraq to the SA. Say; Was not every stinking terrorist on the planes Saudies?

Personally, I think we should give Iraq to the French.



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/29/2005 11:00:11 PM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
A lot of us wish it was 1966 again...



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/29/2005 11:54:00 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Email Replies to "Is it 1966"?
Here there are, every one of them (so far).
Many are interesting.
This is a huge number in such a short time.
The article was used in Whiskey & Gunpowder tonight.
Not even sure if it is posted online yet but it went out to email subscribers.
The score seems to be 17 for, 11 against, 1 unknown (correcting a factual error). Greg is the editor so many replies are to Greg not me.
Now the replies:
============================================================+
Greg

An incendiary writing. Damn right it is and I as a veteran of the Vietnam era (no, I did not go or fight, but I served) I am writing you to give kudos to the author.

You are however wrong in writing it has no bearing on markets or our financial well being. The guns and butter approach of the idiots Johnson and Nixon produced hellacious inflation, stagflation, whatever the hell one calls the effects of the Vietnam era on our finances.

For your information, this Iraqi war, just like the last one the elder Bush started was planned over a 100 years ago.
Just as there was no "Gulf of Tonkin" incident, Saddam had no WMD's, or any connection to the CIA's creation Al Queda.

Ah heck, may as well say it. No one but a devil damned idiot could believe that the twin towers were brought down(straight down like a controlled demolition to boot) by a kerosene fire, either, but Americans are so dumbed down through government schools telling them what to think, rather than, how to think, the masses barely pass for stupid and most are just imbeciles at best.

I find it quite interesting that the Bible teaches us that God would send a delusion in the end times and man would believe lies. DUH, I wonder just what time it is!
We have worse than Hitler or Saddam at the helm of this once great Republic, not democracy as the author alluded. Another lie from our great government schools. The George Bush family has murdered more Iraqs than Saddam by far.

Democracy is mob rule, but like a lot of words, meek being one of them, the words have lost their original meaning. FYI, I used meek as the western version is of a candy assed pussy, while the original meaning uses the same root word as dynamite. controlled fury is the proper renderning of meek, just like the USA was founded as a Democratic Republic, a far cry from democracy.

I said enough.
Keep writing firey things.
Heck, if when i attend church the preacher does not piss me off, I leave offended, as his job, partially is to piss off the congregation and make em think.
I for one will be offending and helping you offend in the process a lot of people, as i forward your writing to most everyone i have on my mailing list.

KEEP IT UP
many thanks

b**** b******
corpus christi, tx
==============================================================================================+
Hey Greg,

I know you'll catch a lot of flack over Mish's article on Iraq. Ignore it. He couldn't be more right.

After 9/11, our attack on Afghanistan made sense. It would have made even more sense if we'd followed through enough to nab Osama. Instead, we attacked Iraq, initiating an unnecessary war conceived by arm-chair ideologues and sold with insinuations, half truths, and outright lies. I felt that way from the beginning and marveled that so many believed.

The answer is not to throw more lives away on this sordid fiasco. As Mish said, we need to bring our people home, the sooner the better.

D** D****
==============================================================================================+
The comparison is phony. In 1966 the war in Vietnam was being run from Lyndon Johnson and McNamara lunch table. Our troops and airmen were fighting with one hand behind their back and the Soviets had full access to Hanoi to bring in artillery, SAMs, munitions, MIG-21 , tanks, etc...

Finally in 1972 Nixon had the guts to mine the North Vietnam harbors, devastate their oil and port facilities, their communications, and they came to Paris to negotiate. Of course they quickly broke the agreement. Our Democrat Senators like Frank Church and others cut off all help to our South Vietnam allies. They fought by themselves for 3 years and were overwhelmed by the Soviet supplied NVA. Millions of their people died at sea and in concentration camps.

No wonder so many people in the world stopped trusting the US as an ally. The Democrats in Congress and the Senate are at it again.

Anonymous
==============================================================================================+
Great article, well thought out and right on.

However, we’re there for the oil. No oil, no empire, no mighty military machine. And perhaps, though extreme, no western civilization.

No idea how this plays out, only that it’s likely not to be good. For anyone.

mark
==============================================================================================+
Gentlemen,

You should stick to business, economics, and investments. Your political philosophy, in addition to being wrong headed, detracts from your mission. I can get better political analysis from other sources.

G*** P****
==============================================================================================+
Way to go Mish! Some of the best ideas for getting out I've heard.
Anonymous
==============================================================================================+
MISH IS TO BE CONGRATULATED FOR DOING THE WORK TO FIND THE TRUTH AND HAVING THE GUTS TO PUBLISH IT.

N**** l*****
==============================================================================================+
You will probably be called traitors.

But I thought your article about "declare victory and leave" was pretty darn good.
I agree with Mish and think just about any proposal other than "Just get the hell out!" will be just an extension of the mess, death, and debacle we have now, and is not worth one more life expended.

- Pat
==============================================================================================+
Try 1919.

Read Lloyd George's speeches. Yes. Iraq. Syria. Lebanon. Egypt (& Oil).

Am presently listening to the CBC doing an interview with a chap who has written much about then, and now.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose...

Or "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it"
Anonymous
==============================================================================================+
You're absolutely right - this had nothing to do with the markets or any investment information. And "Mish" is out of his ****in' mind, if he thinks his "peace proposal" is worth anything at all. And by the time I got to the end of the piece (which I did read in total - in the cause of being objective, I always force myself to read or listen to things I initially find disagreeable), I was ready to unsubscribe.

However, I will refrain from doing so just yet, as you suggest, and see what the next piece is like. But if I ever get any more political horses*** from you, I -will- unsubscribe. If I wanted to read or listen to that, I'd subscribe to a political issues newsletter, not a financial one. But I don't guess you much care if I do or not, frankly.

Tom!
That's right, TOM!
==============================================================================================+
Greg,

You're damn right this is incendiary! It is also one of the biggest pack of lies I've read in a long time. Of course, I don't usually read the MoveOn.org propaganda.

As far as not canceling my subscription, let me ask you a question. Why would I want to read the ideas of someone who supposedly writes about historical events in such a way as to learn from them when he obviously didn't bother to study the history. Or didn't bother to tell it like it really happened.

The Gulf of Tonkin WAS a lie - at least a gross exaggeration. The Tet offensive, however, according to Vietnamese historians, was a last ditch effort. Instead of calling it the gross defeat for the North that it was, Cronkite labeled it as a victory. Instead of calling for a truce, the North merely waited for the US press to convince the US to leave.

That much of Mish's tirade is accurate. The press has declared this a morass, a quagmire, and "unwinnable". They have waged a tireless war against the American public, to convince us that we should apologize to Saddam, give him back his country and pay reparations. They completely ignore the facts and report only the casualties. In fact, the other day, I recall one headline - the only part that most people read - that said that 25 Iraqis died in an attack. Yep. As I recall, 20 of them were the non-native Arabs who attacked in the first place. That information was buried in the 2nd or 3rd paragraph.

The reasons the Al Qaeda attack was carried out in the first place, according to bin Laden, is that the US caved in Lebanon, did nothing about the Cole, the embassy bombings, etc., and in all cases, what he read - reported in the American press, of course - is that we can't blame these people because we are really to blame. Instead, we need to be more understanding of their problems, help them, and, most of all, forgive them.

In other words, there would be no real consequences to attacking the United States. The most they expected was a token cruise missile or two, al la Clinton.

I believe that Murtha's theory is that we are acting as a lightning rod, attracting people to attack American soldiers. I hope he's right. I'd much rather fight a war in the Middle East than in the Midwest. If we leave Iraq, now, the product of the schools of hatred in Saudi Arabia will come here instead of Iraq. They will link up with the Muslim population in the US which has also been carefully taught to hate Americans, and begin attacking us here. In fact, I'm amazed it hasn't begun already.

The real solution is to call this what it is. It's not a war against terror, it's a war against Islam! Perhaps not all of the sects, but certainly most of them. The solution, then, is to declare the practice of Islam illegal. It is not a religion, it is a hate group. For those people who claim that religious freedom is guaranteed by the Constitution, let me inform them that we do not have religious freedom in the United States, we have religious tolerance. If you don't believe me, ask Charles Manson, the Branch Davidians, the Mormons (they had to disavow polygamy or forfeit their right to pray), the so-called cults that require live sacrifices. Gee, have you attended any Aztec services, lately?

Most religions preach that they are the only true faith and if you believe, you'll go to their equivalent of Heaven, and if you don't believe, you'll go to Hell. The Muslims insist on helping the infidels get there! That sure sounds like a hate group to me. Islam = submission. Submit to the teachings of the "religion", accept slavery to those who do, or die. That's what the Mullahs say.

Why isn't that illegal?
B** B***
==============================================================================================+
I have a response to your "Is it 1966 again?" article. I have voted Republican for forty years, I'm so conservative I won't eat the left wing of a chicken, and I am one of those right-wing Christians the liberal media is continually castigating and demonizing. I believe, however, that George Bush should be impeached and tried as a war criminal. He is a blockhead, a dolt, and a puppet of the so-called neo-cons.

I appreciated your article, and I wish you would forward to members of Congress.

F**** S******
==============================================================================================+
Glad you weren't around during WWII or we'd all now be speaking German or Japanese!
In your travels---PLEASE go to Iraq so you'll know what you're talking about. Your writtings prove that you don't have a clue what's going on over there!
Read what Joe Leberman has to say in the Wall Street Jounal today----he knows what he's talking about.

Your proposals are surrender.
==============================================================================================+
One of the things I like about Whiskey and Gunpowder is that it states
opinions freely. One of the things I dislike about W&G is that
sometimes it states opinions without even a nod toward the notion that
an argument usually has multiple sides, each with a factual base.

Mish's article is a good example of bad thinking, a frothy spewing of
unsubstantiated opinions. Mish seems not to understand that 20 or 200
or 200,000 people saying the earth is flat is no proof that the earth is
flat. Alas, there is better evidence that the earth is flat than there
is to support many of Mish's assertions.
I have a new reason to hate the Vietnam war. Mish's teacher left the
classroom never to influence Mish again. Perhaps that is why Mish
displayed an inability to consider that there are differences between
facts and opinions.

Have a nice day,
Dale
==============================================================================================+
Amen.
==============================================================================================+
Greg,

I believe that Mish made a factual error in his essay about Iraq.

Mish stated: "There is not a single member in Congress with a son or daughter actively serving in Iraq."

I think Representative Todd Akin (Missouri, 2nd District) has a son serving with the Marines in Iraq.

Sincerely,
D**** S******
==============================================================================================+
Greg............
you guys have outdone yourselves once again.
incendiary doesn't come close to the feelings this article brought up.....We can laugh about how big a baboon Bush Jr is but LBJ was just a oversized redneck bully pissing on your front doorstep.
I'm Mish's age......I was in sixth grade at the time and I have to commend him for what this evoked in his heart as it gushed from his fingers.

The only difference between then and now........then we laughed at France because we "had to go in and finish their job" and Shell said there was oil there. Now Iraq has a LOT of oil and we think we rode in on a white horse and toppled a dictator that we previously paid to slug it out with Iran(who threw us out in the 70s). No Communists or Domino Theory in sight.
Oh....and lets not forget the DRAFT.

Kudos...surprised the thought police allowed it across the Internet....it appeared to have many "trigger words" attached to it.
Keep up the excellent articles.....and piss on those that don't have an open mind or a free thought for that matter.........

D**** Q*****
Concord Ca
==============================================================================================+
I congratulate Mike for writing this article. I wish more people had the courage to write about their feelings. What a colossal mistake we have made.
Our country will suffer in many ways for years to come.
E** F****
==============================================================================================+
Ask Mike Shedlock when we are going to pullout of Kosovo?
How about pulling out of the other 100+ countries we have troops in?
How about getting out of the United Nations?
How about we go back to being a Constitutional Republic and quite behaving like a democracy?
Glad you guys went ahead and sent this. Not until people feel like they can speak their mind will anything change. Of course the messenger always gets shot.

Thank You,
E** R***
==============================================================================================+
Excellent essay by Mish!
E*** C****
=============================================================================================+
Hi Mish,

Thanks for the article.
You hit a few points home for the few Americans who really care about the United States. Unfortunately that seem to be not a lot and I like to apologize upfront to all of them for the following because they are presently and will for the foreseeable future be painted with the same brush.
Since G.W. Bush was elected we had numerous discussions in different circles about him and his government. One thing we almost always agreed in all groups was that he is the best American President the W O R L D ever had. Not the United States, no, the world. Watching his performance from the outside he is a disaster for your country but the world has to thank America for electing him. During his term in office most people in the world learned why ordinary Americans outside the USA travelled with a Canadian flag somewhere tagged to their cloth or backpacks and today are even afraid leaving the US.
A growing number of people now avoid buying American products. This opens markets for other countries.
Trade restrictions imposed by the US has people searching for other markets, mostly successful, leaving the US behind in the future.
American politicians as well as high ranking officials of American Companies openly lying not only to their own people (nothing really new about that) but also to the world reduce the credibility of Americans close to zero.
The list is more or less endless and as long as the US has an electoral system based on 50% plus one vote, it is hard to imagine that the minority of good Americans ever becomes the power to change things. Only in a system that uses proportional representation this could lead to a difference. Again, this is only a view from an outsider, who’s mother tongue is not English. So, if you find any grammatical or spelling error, please take my apology.

D**** T****
Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
=============================================================================================+
Greg, It is easy to pontificate by manipulating history to back your position,to cut and run.One salient point OUR COUNTRY was not attacked by Korea or Vietnam. The Muslim Terrorist attacked the USA during Reagan,Clinton,Bush l & ll. They want to destroy everything you hold dear,KILL you, your wife,children,family,friends and subjugate the ones who capitulate. Then destroy the one thing you cherish(FREEDOM) to develop and use your God given talents to improve yourself and mankind. This unfortunately is a religious war and their last crusade to try to win, backed by the Arabian oil producing countries.Once the oil is depleted they have no support and once again become sand nomads, even though during the early crusades they excelled in the sciences but never regained their previous level due to the radical Muslim sect. WAKE UP PROTECT the FREEDOM OUR ANCESTORS came to AMERICA to LIVE and GIVE YOU...It is better to take a stand in a tyrants country to resolve this terrible War then to risk having your family et al live like our mercenary friends who have born the brunt of Terrorism for so long the people of Israel.
F*** G****
=============================================================================================+
In June, 1966, I went to Parris Island, SC for Marine Boot Camp. By 1968 I was in Viet Nam where I spent 21 months.

We lost no major fights in Viet Nam. We simply never had the political will to win. However, we did have nearly 500,000 troops in Viet Nam, most of the time. On the day our last troops were pulling out, North Vietnamese tanks were rolling into Siagon.

If we stay in Iraq (I was against the war to begin with and I am in favor of immediate pull out, not six months or six years from now) for ten years, with current troop levels, I don't believe there will ever be any peace. Many will die and we will have spent a trillion dollars, on another lost cause.

B*** F***
=============================================================================================+
No I am not going to yell or cancel. But it seems to easy for everyone
to say we made a mistake. Clearly those that do did not analyze the
situation we faced before the war was undertaken. Why is it that
intelligent people can be so thrown by popular opinion. I suggest the
team at W&G buy a copy of the book 'BOYD' (look it up on ebay or try
this link for more information)

d-n-i.net

Read it pass it around, then try to tell me that we had no reason to
invade Iraq. Granted it will take a little thought and reflection to
understand, but that is what you guys sell isn't it?

Craig
=============================================================================================+
Mish,
I like your stuff—I think. But if you are as far off base on economics as you are on geopolitics and warfare, I’ll have to quit reading you and the whole newsletter. Stick to what you know, not some wildly emotional tirade that makes you feel good but does nothing for ensuring future generations of a semblance of living in a sane and safe world.
Well, at least you present a plan. Nobody else has even tried to think about alternative options, most notably whinny Mr. Bonner in France. But the plan seems flawed. As you point out, the Arab world probably doesn’t want to get involved. They have done nothing to help the Palestinians, why would they want to do anything for Iraq? We can all speculate what the impact of turning that much oil over to terrorists would be. Think they’d keep selling it to us at spot price? Of course not. Think Taliban with money.
This isn’t just about losing face, it’s about ultimate homeland security. Those guys over there are our sworn enemies—not of just the occupying troops, but of the entire Western culture and way of life. Without some change in the Muslim world we are going to be in a constant fight here at home for many generations. Why did they make so many attacks on us at home and abroad in the first place?
How would withdrawal in Iraq cause them to suddenly decide we were no longer the enemy? Why would our embassies, and our business interests throughout the world, to say nothing of our homeland, not come under attack again? Think a bit about basic human nature. How would saying “I’m sorry about Iraq” cause them to give up making bombs in America, or Europe, or Indonesia? Would you? Have you ever dealt with a religious zealot (of any denomination)? The jihadists are not your ordinary western civilization schoolyard bullies. They feel duty bound by a higher power to simply eradicate us and our society. Maybe giving up would save a few lives in the short term, but what is the likely long term impact? Simply asking those kind of guys to please stop fighting and not attack the US any more does not seem a sound option.
And since it probably won’t be taken seriously by the politicians anyway let’s put that brain power into some good use and think about a plan that would create some long term change.
And oh, by the way, shouldn’t we also apologize to North Korea for having prevented them from over running South Korea?
Sincerely,
D*** E*****
=============================================================================================+
Greg, here is an opinion written in a very pragmatic, realistic manner by a well qualified civilian military man on your recent Iraqi subject, if you have not yet read?

Good analysis of the tragedy of Iraq. Note the credentials of Van Creveld.

Two snipped paragraphs which summarize the problem we face;
>>Welcome as a pullout might be to many Americans, it would be a hugely complex operation. Van Creveld says it would probably take several months and result in sizeable casualties. More significantly, though, it would not end the conflict.
"As the pullout proceeds," he warns, "Iraq almost certainly will sink into an all-out civil war from which it will take the country a long time to emerge - if, indeed, it can do so at all. All this is inevitable and will take place whether George W Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice like it or not."<<
And the last two paragraphs;
>>The inescapable fact is that the processes Mr Bush unleashed on March 20 2003 (and imagined he had ended with his "mission accomplished" speech six weeks later) will take a decade or more to run their course and there is little that anyone, even the US, can do now to halt them.
In his eagerness for regime change in Iraq, Mr Bush blundered into a trap from which in the short term there is no way out: the Americans will be damned if they stay and damned if they leave.<<
G. H********
=============================================================================================+
Hi Greg

I was interested in your analysis and comparison of Iraq with Vietnam. The American public has wisely been hard to persuade to go to war. A substantial threat has always been required. Pearl Harbour got America into World War 2.

Have you been studying the debate on the collapse of the World Trade Center? The argument is that the military/industrial powers wanted a new Pearl Harbour to enable a foray into the Middle East. They were delighted to find that terrorists had a plan to use planes as weapons. Barriers were put in place to prevent the field workers getting the story out. Essential assistance was given so that the planes would not be interferred with on their long roundabout journey to their targets. Explosives were placed in the buildings to create a suitable display of "shock and awe".

There is a mass of evidence that supports the complicity of some shadowy force within the government. Much of this depends on eyewitness accounts and may be disputed. The fact which I find most compelling does not depend on hearsay but on surviving evidence. The videos of the collapse of WTC2 and WTC7 are easily analysed. It can be shown that the buildings fell in a time very little longer than free fall time. It is impossible to reconcile this with the official explanation that fires weakened the steel. Such weakening could never have occurred simultaneously and symmetrically throughout the structures so there would have been slow buckling followed by sideways toppling.

The Patriot Act is reminiscent of Hitler's legislation after their parliament was burnt down. It is believed that Hitler's mob did the burning. In Mein Campf Hitler says if you tell a "big lie" it will be believed and goes on to explain the psychology.

A good summary and call for investigation is at:

conspiracyplanet.com

A thorough analysis of evidence is at:

911research.wtc7.net

If this story is true what will be the outcome? Is it totalitarian government?

Regards
F*** L****
=============================================================================================+
Sirs,
I read your article and disagree with the summation. I am 57, which put me in Viet Nam '69 & 70'. The only mental scars remaining after 35 years were inflicted by the citizens of the U.S. and the Congress, and I will take them to my grave. I do not believe that the country is ready to quit the conflict in Iraq, but the Northeast and Calif. are ready to quit. I have not been to new england since 1969, I was a 20 year old farm boy and the only thing I wanted was to experience the areas studied in history. What I got was spit on and refused service because of my hair-cut, I would not risk one of the traitor kerry's paper cut Purple Hearts for the entire Northeast. Upon returning I had the pleasure of walking the gauntlet at san fransisco international, the excretion of every body orifice was thrown on us. The welcome wagon from the government of California.
I think that if the entire country were to be poled, it would become crystal clear that the democrats and their politics do not represent anything but a minority of the country, which the last election bore out. The only way that this war will resemble Viet Nam is in our congress. Not a single representative or senator is qualified to run a war, the only one they ever did was a defeat for the military and every member of the Armed Forces.
The real atrocities of war are not to the military but to the citizens of the country it touches. We as a country are by any stretch of the imagination ready for the atrocities of a war here or the freedoms that would be forfeit as a result. 9-11 was just an small example, we are all infidels, pro war or anti-war, they will not distinguish. The loss of our freedom to congregate for shopping, sports, or just ride the trains or use the roads to commute to work. To live in fear of bombings or other acts of terrorism would paralyze the entire North American continent, just think of the ramifications and changes to our way of life. For me, I feel deep sympathy for the people of Iraq, but given the choice of fighting here or there I'm sorry but the correct place to confront terror is half a world away and then with all the tools at our disposal. God fore bid that we are forced to defend ourselves here, the country would never be the same again. We take our security and freedoms for granted, they have been earned and paid for by all the generations that have come before us and must, at all costs, be defended or our way of life will come to a painful end. Hitler and the Kaiser couldn't do this because of the resolve of the people of the U.S., now the special interests and anti government movements may accomplish what strong militaries could not.
B** N*****
=============================================================================================+
I cancelled my subscription because I support the President and our troops Mitch can eat $h*t
B*** A****
=============================================================================================+

7 more replies on my blog....

Yeah... what you said. I do think that they are in the process of figuring out how to declare victory and retreat.
just pete
=============================================================================================+
let's have a Q&A session, complete with polygraph, for Bush, Cheny, Rice, Powell, Rumsfeld...all the top brass.
=============================================================================================+
Your analysis of the situation's current state is among the most cogent I have seen......and your assessment of the probabilities of any of your options actually occurring is equally precise: exactly zero.

Best Regards,
F**** S****
=============================================================================================+
I second Mr. Scott's comments. Excellent assessment of the quagmire we're in.
J**** C****
=============================================================================================+
Wow! Great stuff. Mish for President in '08!!!
Jack
=============================================================================================+
Great blog but you are overlooking the real reason for the war. It was not WMD that Bush was after, it was the oil. Bush is over there liberating the oil and he is not going to leave without it.
Ron
=============================================================================================+
I dont think oil has nothing to do, after all they had the stupid embargo before we invaded, and I think that the us had a lot to do with that embargo. if we had wanted more oil, we should have lifted it. people were not even aware of an oil problem when this whole mess started.
lelio
=============================================================================================+
Mish



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/30/2005 12:20:45 AM
From: regli  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Decadent America must give up imperial ambitions

news.ft.com

By Anatol Lieven

Published: November 28 2005 20:20 | Last updated: November 28 2005 20:20

US global power, as presently conceived by the overwhelming majority of the US establishment, is unsustainable. To place American power on a firmer footing requires putting it on a more limited footing. Despite the lessons of Iraq, this is something that American policymakers – Democrat and Republican, civilian and military – still find extremely difficult to think about.

The basic reasons why the American empire is bust are familiar from other imperial histories. The empire can no longer raise enough taxes or soldiers, it is increasingly indebted and key vassal states are no longer reliable. In an equally classical fashion, central to what is happening is the greed and decadence of the imperial elites. Like so many of their predecessors, the US wealthy classes have gained a grip over the state that allows them to escape taxation. Mass acquiescence in this has to be bought with much smaller – but fiscally equally damaging – cuts to taxes on the middle classes.

The result is that the empire can no longer pay for enough of the professional troops it needs to fulfil its self-assumed imperial tasks. It cannot introduce conscription because of the general demilitarisation of society and also because elite youths are no longer prepared to set an example of leadership and sacrifice by serving themselves. The result is that the US is incapable of waging more wars of occupation, such as in Iraq. It can defeat other states in battle easily enough but it cannot turn them into loyal or stable allies. War therefore means simply creating more and more areas of anarchy and breeding grounds for terrorism.

It is important to note that this US weakness affects not only the ambitions of the Bush administration, but also geopolitical stances wholly shared by the Democrats. The Bush administration deserves to be savagely criticised for the timing and the conduct of the Iraq war. Future historians may, however, conclude that President Bill Clinton's strategy of the 1990s would also have made the conquest of Iraq unavoidable sooner or later; and that given the realities of Iraqi society and history, the results would not have been significantly less awful. For that matter, can present US strategy against Iran - supported by both parties - be sustained permanently without war? Indeed, given the nature of the Middle East, may it not be that any power wishing to exercise hegemony in the region would have to go to war at regular intervals in defence of its authority or its local clients?

Furthermore, the relative decline in US economic independence means that, unlike in 1917 or 1941, really serious war risks US economic disaster. Even a limited US-Chinese clash over Taiwan would be likely to produce catastrophic economic consequences for both sides.

In theory, the desirable US response to its imperial overstretch is simple and has been advocated by some leading independent US thinkers such as Professor Stephen Walt of Harvard.* It is to fall back on "offshore balancing", intended to create regional coalitions against potential aggressors and, when possible, regional consensuses in support of order and stability. Not just a direct military presence, but direct military commitments and alliances should be avoided wherever possible.

When, however, one traces what this might mean in practice in various parts of the world, it becomes clear how utterly unacceptable much of this approach would be to the entire existing US political order. In the former Soviet Union, it could mean accepting a qualified form of Russian sphere of influence. In Asia, it could mean backing Japan and other countries against any Chinese aggression, but also defusing the threat of confrontation with China by encouraging the reintegration of Taiwan into the mainland. In the Middle East, it could involve separating US goals from Israeli ones and seeking detente with Iran.

Impossible today, some at least of these moves may, however, prove inescapable in a generation's time. For it is pointless to dream of long maintaining an American empire for which most Americans will neither pay nor fight. My fear though is that, rather than as a result of carefully planned and peaceful strategy, this process may occur through disastrous defeats, in the course of which American global power will not be qualified but destroyed altogether, with potentially awful consequences for the world.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation. His latest book is America Right or Wrong: An Anatomy of American Nationalism.



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/30/2005 5:14:34 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Mish:

Excellent analysis of the Iraq disaster!

My only point of disagreement is the implicit assumption that the Bushies are serious about trying to bring democracy to Iraq. I view this as propaganda cover for a war of imperialist aggression and plunder.

The idea that the Bushies who have done so much to undermine democracy in America are fighting a war for democracy in Iraq is still another one of their big lies.



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/30/2005 7:20:30 AM
From: John Carragher  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
guess we all have opinions and some of us flip flop on them.

French Prime Minister Villepin now warns against a hasty US withdrawal from Iraq after fighting tooth and nail against the war:

Asked whether Washington should set a timetable for bringing home troops, Villepin said any withdrawal “should be coordinated with the local situation in Iraq and the regional situation.” “I think that the timetable should be a global timetable,” he said. “The real timetable is the Iraqi situation.” Villepin identified two main risks in Iraq: “the division of Iraq, which is of course a nightmare for the region, and … a growing role of terrorism.”

Let's remind our selves.. the democrats cry for withdrawal and time table is political.. they have access to all the military plans which for last year called for withdrawal as Iraq can come up in troop strength expected during 2006 as always.
so democrats figure get out in front of news releases by pentagon and it will come across as a democrat idea forced on bush adm.

there is no comparison of 1966 to Iraq. what was the expected death count on invading Iraq... I assume we expected well over 3000 dead soldiers in the first few days of the war.
was kills people. Bush adm and military and state department screwed up the occupation big time. but you do not cut and run and leave one hell of mess for terrorists to grow at will in Iraq.
us has a foot print in the mid east , saddam is not the threat he once was and things are improving, troops are drawing down and we will have bases for the next decade in the mid east to protect our interest.



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/30/2005 10:07:35 AM
From: Sawdusty  Respond to of 116555
 
Bravo Mish!!



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/30/2005 4:27:20 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Respond to of 116555
 
Boy, that was one hellaciously good article...
It's that, or be the first one on your block to have your kid come home in a box.

And it's 1, 2, 3,
What are we fighting for?
Don't ax me, I've gotta pack.
Next stop is old Iraq.

And it's 5, 6, 7
Open up them Pearly Gates.
We ain't got time
To wonder why.
Whoopee, we're all gonna die.

Mike Rat



To: mishedlo who wrote (41948)11/30/2005 4:58:33 PM
From: Incitatus  Respond to of 116555
 
That's what Nixon did, right? Declare victory and go home? Then Saigon fell.

We already "won" in early 2003. There's no reason we cannot declare victory.