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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 2:57:24 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Bond Strategists: Top Forecaster Sees Recession on the Horizon

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. bond market's most accurate forecaster, who plies his trade 500 miles from Wall Street on Tobacco Road, says yields are sending ominous signs about the economy.

While economists at the biggest bond-trading firms wrongly predicted that the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield would end last year at 5 percent, a professor at the University of North Carolina came a lot closer to getting it right.

``It was luck, partly,'' said James F. Smith, 67, who teaches finance at the school's Chapel Hill branch. ``The other reason is the anticipation that inflation would be contained and that continued rate increases from the Federal Reserve would keep longer-maturity investors enthused about their returns.''

Smith turned out to be the top forecaster in Bloomberg's January survey of 66 economists. He predicted the benchmark 10- year yield would end the year at 4.49 percent. At the time, the yield was about 4.27 percent and the median estimate was for it to climb to 5.04 percent by Dec. 31. It finished 2005 at 4.39 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

``Those Wall Street gurus have bigger expense accounts than I have total income,'' Smith said.

Smith edged out three others who were forecasting 4.5 percent: Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist; Jeff Speakes, chief economist of Countrywide Financial Corp.; and Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors, which has $642 million under management.

Ominous Signs

For 2006, Smith predicts the 10-year yield will climb to 4.53 percent. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, ``remains under control,'' he said, tempering any rise in yields. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's fixed payments. The median estimate in the last Bloomberg survey is again 5 percent.

Beyond 2006, Smith said the bond market is waving a caution flag on the economy. Two-year Treasury yields last week rose above those on 10-year notes, creating a so-called inverted yield curve for the first time since December 2000. An inversion preceded the last four U.S. recessions.

``When the curve inverts, run for the exits,'' said Smith, who served as an economist for the Fed from 1975 to 1977. ``It will stay that way until the Fed realizes it caused a recession in 2007. Investors should start planning for a recession.''

Smith is a professor at the Kenan-Flagler Business School at UNC. He received his bachelor's, master's and doctorate degrees in economics from Southern Methodist University in Dallas, making him the only person to graduate from the school with all three degrees, according to Smith.

Fed Outlook

Smith expects the Fed to raise its target rate for overnight loans between banks three more times to 5 percent from 4.25 percent. The U.S. central bank has raised rates by a quarter- percentage point at every meeting since June 2004, when the target was at a 46-year low of 1 percent.

``That's three more times than we need,'' said Smith, who has also served as the chief economist for the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors since July 2002.

In the January survey, Smith expected the Fed to only raise rates to 3 percent last year, compared with the median estimate of 3.50 percent.

Prices for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy rose 1.8 percent in November from a year earlier, down from 1.9 percent in October, the government said on Dec. 22. The Fed uses the PCE index in making its semi-annual forecasts. In July, the central bank said it expected the core rate to rise 1.75 percent to 2 percent last year.

Lower Yields

David Berson, chief economist at Fannie Mae, the biggest U.S. mortgage finance company, isn't surprised that Smith ended the year as the top forecaster.

The two, who worked together at the consulting firm Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates in 1986 and 1987, both serve on the National Business Economic Issues Council.

``Jim has done well,'' said Berson. ``Jim's basic view on interest rates is that they will remain low as inflation remains low. Given that rates have remained low for the last five years, his forecasts have worked out well.''

Ten-year Treasury yields have dropped 29 basis points, or 0.29 percentage point, since reaching a seven-month high of 4.68 percent on Nov. 4 amid speculation inflation is in check.

None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a recession this year, or two consecutive quarters of a decline in gross domestic product. The economy will likely grow by 3.4 percent in 2006, based on the median of 71 forecasts in a survey conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 8. Smith's forecast from last month is for the economy to expand 3.8 percent.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Nov. 3 that the yield curve ``used to be one of the most accurate measures we used to have to indicate when a recession was about to occur,'' though ``it's lost its capability of doing so in recent years.''

Last year was the fifth in a row that 10-year yields finished below economists' year-end forecasts from the start of the year, making Smith's prediction even more noteworthy.

quote.bloomberg.com



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 3:23:33 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Brave New World Or Bust
Louis-Vincent Gave and Marc Faber Face Off On
Outlook For '06 & Beyond

weedenco.com

Half of this is one of the dumbest things you will hear.
Mish

BTW there was an enormous contradiction that Faber forgot to clobber him on.
In one argument it was argued that targeting asset prices is a huge mistake and will cause a deflationary depression yet a bit later an argument was proposed that central bankers have no control over asset prices.



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 10:43:25 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
UK Q3 mortgage equity withdrawal drops to 8.3 bln stg from 10.0 bln in Q2 UPDATE
Tuesday, January 3, 2006 10:40:43 AM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - UK mortgage equity withdrawal fell to 8.3 bln stg in the third quarter of 2005 from a revised 10.0 bln in the second, figures from the Bank of England revealed

The second-quarter figure was revised up to 10.0 bln stg from the previous estimate of 8.7 bln stg

In addition, the central bank said mortgage equity withdrawal -- when homeowners release cash from the value of their properties -- accounted for 3.9 pct of post-tax income in the third quarter, down from the 4.8 pct recorded in the previous quarter

The BoE's estimate of mortgage equity withdrawal is intended to measure the part of borrowing secured on property but not invested in the housing market

Global Insight analyst Howard Archer said the fall in MEW in the third quarter suggests that the significant pick-up in the second quarter was not the beginning of a renewed upward trend

"The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004," he said, adding that he expects consumer spending to "remain relatively muted" over the coming months

He noted that at 3.9 pct of post-tax income, mortgage equity withdrawal in the third quarter of 2005 was at its second lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2001 and less than half of the 9.0 pct peak seen in the fourth quarter of 2003



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 11:23:24 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Owners' Web Gives Realtors Run for Money

By JEFF BAILEY
Published: January 3, 2006

MADISON, Wis. - Across the country, the National Association of Realtors and the 6 percent commission that most of its members charge to sell a house are under assault by government officials, consumer advocates, lawyers and ambitious entrepreneurs. But the most effective challenge so far emanates from a spare bedroom in the modest home here of Christie Miller.

Animated map of listings on fsbomadison.com over time
research.bus.wisc.edu

Ms. Miller, 38, a former social worker who favors fuzzy slippers, and her cousin, Mary Clare Murphy, 51, operate what real estate professionals believe to be the largest for-sale-by-owner Web site in the country.

They have turned Madison, a city of 208,000 known for its liberal politics, into one of the most active for-sale-by-owner markets in the country. And their success suggests that, in challenging the Realtor association's dominance of home sales, they may have hit on a winning formula that has eluded many other upstarts. Their site, FsboMadison.com fsbomadison.com (pronounced FIZZ-boh) holds a nearly 20 percent share of the Dane County market for residential real estate listings.

The site, which charges just $150 to list a home and throws in a teal blue yard sign, draws more Internet traffic than the traditional multiple listing service controlled by real estate agents.

Madison is home to the University of Wisconsin and a city where the percentage of residents who graduated from college is twice the national level. It is also a hotbed of antibusiness sentiment, which turns out to be the perfect place for a free-market real estate revolution. Bucking the system is a civic pastime here.

"It may be an extension of the 1960's, when we stuck it to the man by protesting the war," said Mayor David J. Cieslewicz, who notices all the FsboMadison signs around town. "These days we stick it to the man by selling our own home - and pocketing the 6 percent."

Elsewhere, the Justice Department, free-market scholars, plaintiffs' lawyers and countless entrepreneurs are vowing to make real estate more competitive and to bring down sales commissions. To do that, they advocate forcing the Realtors' association to share control of its established listing services. Those critics seem to view the listings as an unassailable monopoly.

And who can blame them? Those 800-plus local listing services, controlled by local branches of the Realtors' association, help dole out about $60 billion a year in commissions to real estate agents and the firms that employ them. Despite numerous attacks, the association has been remarkably successful to date at protecting its turf. Through lobbying, litigation and legislation, the Realtors' group has managed to keep control of the crucial listings.

Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy, however, built a separate and alternative listing service - a parallel market, much like the Nasdaq, which rose in recent decades to challenge the New York Stock Exchange's dominance and sparked competition that eventually reduced transaction costs for all stock investors.

The price competition is startling. FsboMadison listed about 2,000 homes in 2005 and said that about 72 percent of its listings sell. If those 1,440 houses averaged $200,000 per sale, the real estate commissions under the 6 percent system would have been about $17.3 million. Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy collected about $300,000.

"They don't care - they're not profit-driven," said François Ortalo-Magné, an associate professor of real estate at the University of Wisconsin who has studied residential sales in Europe and the United States.

That lack of profit motive - big profit, anyway - may be the reason FsboMadison is succeeding. Most entrepreneurs want to quickly grab a piece of that $60 billion in commissions by offering a price lower than what most real estate agents charge to attract consumers. Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy, working patiently, are focused on providing a place for buyers and sellers to meet and exchange information.

"I don't think we've done anything unusual," Ms. Murphy said. "We are not out to take over the market, to eliminate the real estate world. We're just here to offer this service."

For hardship cases, divorces mostly, they waive the $150 fee. They refuse to accept referral fees from real estate agents, lawyers or others. Advertising on their Web site costs $150 a year - $250 with a corporate logo. And payment for listings is by personal check only, an anachronism in today's world of immediate credit card transactions. The policy is aimed at keeping people from listing their house on a whim. "Some people are impulsive; they're not ready," Ms. Murphy said.

In 1997 Ms. Murphy and her husband bought a house together and she decided to sell her place without a real estate agent. But it was a bother. "You'd have to guess. Do we put a $120 ad in the paper this weekend?"

Her husband suggested she start a Web site. At a play date with their year-old daughters, Ms. Murphy, a former nurse, bounced the idea off her cousin, Ms. Miller, who told her husband about it that night. "We both laughed about Mary Clare's stupid idea," Ms. Miller said.

But it grew on them. The cousins contacted for-sale-by-owner sellers in the local newspaper, about 25 of them, and offered a free listing on a Web site. Ms. Miller's husband paid $50 for a used power saw at a garage sale to make yard signs. They checked out library books on making a Web site. With eight listings, including Ms. Murphy's, FsboMadison went live Feb. 28, 1998.

A young couple found the site and bought Ms. Murphy's house. "We sat there and had a glass of wine," Ms. Murphy recalled. "And they said, 'Hey, there's that crack in the basement wall.' And we said, 'No problem. We'll take care of it.' "

Dealing directly with each other seemed so civilized, she said. "I keep coming back to that."

With the yard signs, some newspaper advertising and people finding it on the Web, the site took off: 333 listings in 1998; 777 in 1999; about 2,000 each of the last three years.

Briefly stay-at-home moms after their daughters were born, the cousins became busy home-based entrepreneurs. Among the first words spoken by Ms. Miller's daughter, Tatum, "was FSBO, and we were so proud of her," Ms. Miller said.

To real estate agents, "for sale by owner" conjures up some cranky tightwad trying to sell an overpriced, ramshackle house. Agents utter FSBO as if there was something foul stuck to the bottom of their shoe. "It's a commission-avoidance scheme," said Sheridan Glen, manager of the downtown Madison office for Wisconsin's biggest real estate broker, the First Weber Group.

Mr. Glen ticks off the tasks that real estate agents handle: using market expertise to price a house; advertising and showing it; negotiating an offer; organizing the paperwork for closing. "We do a good job," he said. "We deserve 6 or 7 percent."

The Justice Department sued the Realtors association in September, claiming that its rules for listings unfairly disadvantage online brokers who might stimulate price competition in the business.

Agents take comfort by reminding themselves that FSBO and other alternative sales methods blossom in an up market and tend to wither in market downturns. The market is slowing now. And they note that owner sales, which have been around as long as property rights, have always accounted for something less than 20 percent of home sales.

Kevin King, executive vice president of the local Realtors' association, runs the multiple listing service but says he pays no attention to FsboMadison. "It's not important; I don't follow it," he said. "I don't even know the people."

But times have changed. Most consumers are now accustomed to executing large transactions, including airline tickets and investments, over the Internet with little or no assistance. Buyers and sellers are now far more comfortable dealing with each other through Web sites like eBay. And it is far easier to find the FSBO offerings on a single Web site with photographs and property descriptions, not unlike the official multiple listing service. Do-it-yourselfers were hard to find among the classified ads and makeshift yard signs.

A robust for-sale-by-owner operation has also helped open the Madison market for other alternatives to real estate agents. Jason A. Greller, a lawyer, charges a flat fee of $600 to help a buyer or seller on a house transaction and handles about 200 a year. Many of his clients find a house on FsboMadison and also see his advertisement on the site.

Stuart and Sheri Meland, both 28, put their graduate studies on hold in 2002 and started a business that offers sellers a spot on the traditional multiple listing service, plus a yard sign, for a flat fee of $399. Most sellers agree to pay a buyer's agent a 3 percent commission, show the home themselves and either negotiate on their own or hire a lawyer.

William A. Black, a lawyer for the Wisconsin Department of Regulation and Licensing, says he does not think consumers who bypass real estate agents are missing much. "The majority of residential transactions are very simple: 99 percent can be done without a broker. And the 1 percent screwed up - the broker couldn't have prevented it."

Alternative listing services would need to reach a combined 50 percent to 60 percent of a market to topple a multiple listing service, Steve Murray, an industry consultant, guessed.

That is what David B. Zwiefelhofer, Webmaster for FsboMadison, would like to see, and he constantly encourages Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy to expand. "I think this is the one place in the country where FSBO could overtake" the multiple listing service, he said.

His clients, not surprisingly for a social worker and a nurse, are embarrassed by their success, Mr. Zwiefelhofer said. "It bugs me to no end," he said. "The Web site still looks like it was designed by some high school student five years ago."

True, there are no FsboMadison business cards. The filing system is a stack of paper in the bedroom closet. The 2006 business plan, Ms. Miller said, is to "keep going." But FsboMadison does have its first part-time employee, someone to relieve Ms. Miller's husband of sign-installing duty. Ms. Miller hired a man who was her middle school gym teacher.

nytimes.com



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 11:40:25 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Chirac confirms France will cut 2006 budget deficit to under 3 pct of GDP
Tuesday, January 3, 2006 10:37:44 AM
afxpress.com

PARIS (AFX) - French President Jacques Chirac said the country will meet its target of reducing the public budget deficit to 2.9 pct of GDP next year, confirming a target set out late last year, and bringing the deficit just below the 3 pct limit set by the euro zone's Stability and Growth pact

At a New Year's presentation to his cabinet, Chirac also called for the creation of a special committee that would be responsible for ensuring public finances do not exceed budget previsions

He told government ministers that France will meet "its European commitments for the public deficit." "But faced with a vicious circle of debt, faced with the risk of seeing operational costs crowd out spending for the future, the state must again find new margins for manoeuvre," mainly by keeping spending in check, Chirac said

France's 2006 deficit target is based on a growth forecast of 2.25 pct, but several economists consider this rate of economic growth unlikely, and the International Monetary Fund estimated in November that the country's public budget deficit will rise to 3.3 pct by the end of this year



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 12:12:48 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Independence To End Flights On Thursday
Financially Troubled Flyi Can't Find Buyer, Decides to Cease Operations

By Bill Brubaker and Sholnn Freeman
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, January 3, 2006; Page A01

Flyi Inc., parent of Dulles-based low-fare airline Independence Air, said yesterday it will discontinue flights after Thursday evening because it cannot find a buyer for its financially troubled operation.

The demise of Independence Air, whose blue and white jets have become a familiar sight in the skies around Washington Dulles International Airport, will leave 2,700 employees, including 2,300 in the Dulles area, out of work, and thousands of passengers scrambling to find alternate flights and secure refunds. The shutdown also will cut competition in the 37 markets Independence serves, probably leading to higher fares at Dulles Airport.

In the latest piece of bad news for the U.S. airline industry, Flyi will vanish two months after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, complaining of high fuel costs and intense competition, and almost 19 months after it launched service at Dulles Airport, promising low fares and coast-to-coast service.

Flyi is the largest airline to go out of business since 1991, when both Eastern Air Lines Inc. and Midway Air Lines Inc. folded, industry consultant Darryl Jenkins said. Seven other airlines are operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to reorganize their operations, including major carriers United Airlines parent UAL Corp., Delta Air Lines Inc. and Northwest Airlines Corp.

"The financial pressures in the industry have prevailed. We have run out of time," Flyi's Web site said in a letter to passengers.

As news of the shutdown spread, the lines at the Independence Air ticket counter at Dulles Airport started to build yesterday afternoon. Worried customers, including Bill and Ruth Tanker of Rockville, started streaming in. The Tankers had electronic tickets they bought online for a trip to Florida on Jan. 21 and were trying to determine if they would get their money back.

Flyi said customers who used credit cards to pay for tickets on flights scheduled to depart after Thursday night should call the credit card companies and request refunds. Flyi said it will seek approval Thursday from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware to issue automatic refunds to all customers ticketed to depart after 7 p.m. that day. The airline's frequent-flier miles will become worthless at that time.

Under federal law, after Independence shuts down, travelers booked on its flights must be accommodated on a standby basis by other airlines serving the same route at a cost of $50 per passenger. The provision was part of a statute created by Congress to protect consumers after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Flyi said passengers must book these alternative flights within 60 days after the carrier goes out of business.

Independence said its last flight Thursday will leave White Plains, N.Y., bound for Dulles Airport. Flyi said it will continue selling tickets on its remaining flights, some at its characteristically low prices. Cost of a one-way ticket for this afternoon from Dulles to Savannah, Ga., was $59. Independence's low fares were seen as a key reason why ticket prices at Dulles Airport have been falling while those nationwide have been rising.

"I'm sad to see [Independence] go," Adam Thrasher, 26, an admissions officer at Boston College, said as he waited in the Independence check-in line at Dulles Airport yesterday. "When Independence came on the scene, fares became lower."

Kevin and Kristen Decker of St. Augustine, Fla., who were in the check-in line preparing to fly home, said they had spent $500 for two round-trip tickets on Independence, about $200 less than the cost of flying on a competitor. They said they expect the prices for flights out of Dulles to rise, something analysts also predicted, although competitors yesterday said they had no immediate plans to increase fares.

"We still have to be competitive with everybody else out of Dulles," United Air Lines spokesman Jeff Green said.

United is Flyi's former partner and biggest competitor. United's parent is preparing to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February.

Flyi's predecessor, Atlantic Coast Airlines Holding Corp., operated as a regional feeder carrier for United from 1989 to 2004. Many Wall Street analysts fault Flyi for rejecting an offer in 2003 to remain with UAL, the second-largest U.S. airline company. The offer would have cut the fixed payments United paid to Atlantic Coast to operate some of its regional flights.

Flyi instead decided in 2004 to form an independent carrier that flooded the market with short-hop, low-fare flights, most on 50-seat regional jets that are expensive to operate.

Flyi chief executive Kerry B. Skeen said in an interview yesterday there was no guarantee the company, employees or shareholders would have fared better if Atlantic Coast had stayed with United. "It's much easier in hindsight to say what didn't work," he said. "But the jury may still be out on those paths as to how well they may have worked."

Flyi suffered from rising jet fuel costs and the aggressive response of competitors, led by United and US Airways. They matched Independence's fares, added flights and sweetened frequent-flier perks. Flyi sold more than 8 million tickets, but many were at money-losing fares, including $29 one way from Dulles Airport to cities such as Newark.

The airline leases 37 airplane parking positions in Dulles's Concourse A, used for regional jets, and it shares eight slots in Concourse B, used for larger jets, from the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, which runs the Dulles and Reagan National airports. The fate of those slots will be sorted out in bankruptcy court, Flyi spokesman Rick DeLisi said.

A spokeswoman for the airports authority, Courtney Prebich, declined comment on the financial impact of Independence's shutdown on Dulles.

Betsy Snyder, an analyst for Standard & Poor's Corp., the New York credit ratings agency, said she expected JetBlue, which already flies out of Dulles Airport and recently bought new aircraft, to be among the bidders for Independence's slots. She said United also has been ramping up service from Dulles.

Flyi warned as early as last winter that it might have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if it could not successfully restructure its operations. All last year, though, the airline publicly held out hope that a solution to its financial problems could be found.

Flyi declared in its bankruptcy filing Nov. 7 that it would shut down if it could not find a buyer by Jan. 7. Flyi said in the filing that it had $378.5 million in assets, $455.4 million in liabilities and $24 million in unrestricted cash on Sept. 30.

On Dec. 23, Flyi sent a letter to employees warning that the airline would cease operations Saturday if it was unable to find a major investor. At least two airline companies, UAL and Mesa Air Group Inc., have expressed interest in bidding for Flyi's assets. Mesa, a Phoenix-based regional carrier, tried to acquire Flyi two years ago.

"While we've been clear in reminding everyone that this was a possibility, we remained optimistic that there would be a way to avoid reaching this juncture," Skeen said in a statement yesterday. "To date there has not been a firm offer put forward that meets the financial criteria necessary to continue operations as is."



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 12:18:59 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Windows PCs face ‘huge’ virus threat
By Kevin Allison in San Francisco
Published: January 2 2006 18:18 | Last updated: January 3 2006 12:01

Computer security experts were grappling with the threat of a new weakness in Microsoft’s Windows operating system that could put hundreds of millions of PCs at risk of infection by spyware or viruses.

The news marks the latest security setback for Microsoft, the world’s biggest software company, whose Windows operating system is a favourite target for hackers.

“The potential [security threat] is huge,” said Mikko Hyppönen, chief research officer at F-Secure, an antivirus company. “It’s probably bigger than for any other vulnerability we’ve seen. Any version of Windows is vulnerable right now.”

The flaw, which allows hackers to infect computers using programs maliciously inserted into seemingly innocuous image files, was first discovered last week. But the potential for damaging attacks increased dramatically at the weekend after a group of computer hackers published the source code they used to exploit it. Unlike most attacks, which require victims to download or execute a suspect file, the new vulnerability makes it possible for users to infect their computers with spyware or a virus simply by viewing a web page, e-mail or instant message that contains a contaminated image.

“We haven’t seen anything that bad yet, but multiple individuals and groups are exploiting this vulnerability,” Mr Hyppönen said. He said that every Windows system shipped since 1990 contained the flaw.

Microsoft said in a security bulletin on its website that it was aware that the vulnerability was being actively exploited. However an official patch to correct the flaw was not expected to be released until January 10.

In the meantime, Microsoft said it was urging customers to be careful opening e-mail or following web links from untrusted sources, and provided instructions for a “workaround” that would reduce the likelihood of attacks.

Meanwhile, some security experts were urging system administrators to take the unusual step of installing an unofficial patch created at the weekend by Ilfak Guilfanov, a Russian computer programmer.

Concerns remain that without an official patch, many corporate information technology systems could remain vulnerable as employees trickle back to work after the holiday weekend.

“We’ve received many e-mails from people saying that no one in a corporate environment will find using an unofficial patch acceptable,” wrote Tom Liston, a researcher at the Internet Storm Center, an antivirus research group. Both ISC and F-Secure have endorsed the unofficial fix.

In its security bulletin, Microsoft made a general recommendation against unofficial patches, saying it was “best practice to utilise security updates for software vulnerabilities from the original vendor of the software”.

Microsoft routinely identifies or receives reports of security weaknesses but most such vulnerabilities are limited to a particular version of the Windows operating system or other piece of Microsoft software. In recent weeks, the company has been touting its progress in combating security threats.

The company could not be reached on Monday for comment.
news.ft.com



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 12:24:22 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
ECONOMIC FUTURES
By Michael Mandel
[I am amazed by those predicting a crash in housing that will not affect the stock market - the other half says housing will not crash at all but just slowdown - is there anyone bearish on stocks? - Mish]

Fasten Your Seat Belts in '06
Housing prices look like tech stocks at the height of the dot-com boom, so expect a nasty slump. Meanwhile, bet on tech to soar
Forecasting is a fool's game. The economy has enough unpredictable twists and turns to make anyone look stupid. But in the spirit of the New Year, I'm going to give in to temptation and offer up not one, but two predictions: 2006 will be a terrible year for housing. However, it will be a great one for technology. (Take notes out there, all you home buyers and stock market investors.)

Let's look at the facts:

Fact #1: The housing bubble is now officially bigger than the tech bubble ever was. At the peak of the frenzy in 2000, consumer and business spending on tech software and hardware absorbed 6% of economic output. Today, residential construction takes 6.1% of output -- that's the biggest share of the economy devoted to housing since 1955. And remember, that was smack-dab in the middle of the postwar baby boom. (For a chart, see my blog.)

Fact #2: The share of the economy going to technology, at 5%, is no higher today than it was in 1997, before the Internet boom really got going. To put it a different way, in the midst of a technological revolution of historic proportions, spending on tech has grown no faster than the overall economy. It's hard for me to believe that this pattern will continue.

Fact #3: Home-building stocks have quadrupled in price since 2001. That's almost as great as the runup in tech stocks from 1997 to the peak in 2000. Haven't we learned anything?

Fact #4: Tech stocks overall are no higher than they were at the beginning of 2004. The same is true for telecom stocks.

I put this all together and draw several conclusions. The housing bubble could well trace the same path as the tech bubble: A big rise that convinces even the skeptics to invest -- this time in real estate -- followed by a sharp decline that exceeds even the worst of fears.

Just as the overspending on tech and telecom in the late 1990s set the stage for the big tech bust, the rapid pace of residential construction suggests that we could easily end up with a nationwide oversupply of housing, even if mortgage rates don't rise much.

BUYING SPREE. And don't listen to people who tell you that because everyone needs a place to live, housing is more bust-resistant than technology. In 2000 and 2001, the conventional wisdom said that technology spending was recession-proof because companies couldn't afford to cut back.

In fact, businesses suddenly realized that they were spending more on info tech than they needed, even as the tech industry was assuming that the 1990s buying spree would continue and expanded its capacity. Oversupply met reluctant demand, and the bust followed.

This time, the result of oversupply will be equally grim: Home prices will fall sharply in many areas, not just go flat. I even expect the national price for homes to decline by a bit. Construction and mortgage lending will slow sharply, and the whole psychology of the real estate market will change. Homebuilding stocks will give back most if not all of their astonishing gains. This will not be pretty.

ON THE UPSWING. On the other side of the ledger, there's a good chance the tech sector will finally snap out of its post-bust funk. Here are some encouraging signs: Telecom is actually adding jobs, on a year-over-year basis, for the first time since 2001. Computer systems design firms are expanding as well, and wages for programmers are apparently on the upswing, especially in Silicon Valley.

Online advertising is projected to rise by more than 30% in 2006. And there's a sense of excitement that hasn't been present since the boom years, as companies like Google (GOOG ) and Apple (AAPL ) dominate the headlines. The end result should be a rise in tech and telecom stocks -- not of biblical proportions but certainly enough to be enjoyable for investors.

What will this mean for the whole economy? Overall, growth should continue and the stock market should rise. But when a bubble bursts, the turbulence hits everyone. Hold on tight for a rough ride.



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 1:23:05 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Pakistan in talks to buy Chinese reactors
By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad
Published: January 2 2006 21:52 | Last updated: January 3 2006 05:58

Pakistan is negotiating the purchase of between six and eight nuclear power reactors from China during the next decade in the most ambitious expansion yet of the country’s nuclear energy capability.

The deal could cost $7bn-$10bn and would involve adding 3,600-4,800 megawatts of capacity using a series of 600MW reactors. The plants are expected to be completed by 2025, with construction starting by 2015, a senior Pakistani official told the Financial Times.

The installation of Chinese nuclear power reactors would take Pakistan a long way towards meeting government targets of raising its nuclear power generation capacity to 8,800MW by 2030, up from a current capacity of 425MW.

Disclosure of negotiations with China follows the formal start of construction last week of a Chinese-supplied nuclear plant at Chashma in Punjab province.

The new Chashma-2 plant is expected to be completed during the next five years and is to be built beside the existing 300MW Chashma-1, also supplied by China. Pakistan also operates a 125MW Canadian-supplied reactor in the southern port city of Karachi.

Pakistan’s increasing reliance on China as main supplier of its nuclear reactors is likely to raise concerns within the anti-nuclear proliferation lobby in the west.

China has been suspected of assisting Pakistan with development of its nuclear weapons programme, which led to the country’s first nuclear tests in 1998.

Pakistan emerged at the centre of global concerns about nuclear proliferation in 20004 when it was revealed that AQ Khan, father of its nuclear bomb project, sold nuclear expertise and technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Mr Khan, a national hero and iconic figure in Pakistan, was forced to appear on public television and admit he had made a mistake by selling nuclear technology. He has lived effectively under house arrest since. In an apparent attempt to pacify western concerns about proliferation, Shaukat Aziz, Pakistan’s prime minister, stressed last week that the country’s nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes.

“We have established an effective command-and-control authority to ensure the safety and security of our strategic assets. We have also adopted wide-ranging controls to prevent leakage of nuclear materials”, he said.

A senior western diplomat in Islamabad said Pakistan’s increasing reliance on China may be a reaction to a US offer to sell reactors to India, its neighbour and nuclear rival. “This could be meant to tell Washington that Pakistan has other options,” he said.

But Lieutenant General [retired] Talat Masood, a Pakistani commentator on security affairs, said discussions with China had been going on for some time:

“Pakistan has a long-term relationship with China and there is a great trust factor,” he said.

news.ft.com



To: regli who wrote (43760)1/3/2006 1:37:24 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Should The Dow Ditch General Motors?
GM's troubles are skewing the index and battering investors who bet on it

When Charles H. Dow created the Dow Jones industrial average in 1896, he likened it to a stick jammed into the sand at the beach -- a steady reference point for observers to measure the ebb and flow of the U.S. stock market.

Judging from the index' recent performance, the wooden stick might need some repositioning. General Motors Corp. (GM ), one of only 30 "blue-chip" stocks that make up the Dow, plunged in 2005 to a 23-year low -- costing the index nearly 200 points. As a result, through Dec. 23, the Dow lagged behind the other widely followed market gauge, the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, significantly: The S&P 500 was up 6.5%, while the Dow was up less than 1%. (Standard & Poor's, like BusinessWeek, is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies.)

The poor performance wouldn't matter if the Dow were merely a statistic cited in newspapers. But beginning in 1998, investors have been able to "buy" the index via the Diamonds Trust, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks it. Almost $7.5 billion sits in the Diamonds Trust. Since spring, when GM began to slump, investors who bought the ETF based on the S&P 500 have handily beaten those who bought the Dow.

Almost no one would describe General Motors as a blue-chip stock these days. So why, ask some Wall Street veterans, is GM still in the Dow? "They long ago ceased being a barometer of the U.S. economy," says Jeffrey N. Kleintop, chief investment strategist at PNC Advisors in Philadelphia. Only General Electric Co. (GE ) has a longer tenure in the index than GM, which joined in 1915. Long gone are ghosts of industries past like U.S. Steel and National Lead.

GM is still a huge company, with annual sales of almost $200 billion. But the company's share of the global auto market has fallen from a peak of 51% in 1962 to 26% today, and Toyota Motor Corp. (TM ) could surpass it in 2006 to become No. 1 worldwide. Worse, GM has massive pension obligations, and it gushed $3.8 billion of red ink in the first three quarters of 2005. Credit-rating agencies are bandying about the "B" word: bankruptcy. "This isn't a farfetched possibility if the kind of deterioration in results we've seen over the past few quarters should continue," said S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen during a Dec. 12 conference call with reporters and analysts. S&P on that day cut GM's corporate credit rating to B, five steps below investment grade. (GM declined to comment on its status as a member of the Dow.)

Some of GM's major shareholders are dumping the stock. Capital Research & Management Co., which runs American Funds, sold 15.5 million shares in the third quarter. More recently, Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp., which took a big stake earlier in the year, disclosed on Dec. 20 that it had sold 12 million shares.

General Motors has been a drag on many stock market indexes this year, but its effect on the Dow has been especially pronounced. The Wilshire 5000 and the S&P 500 weigh stocks by their market value. But the Dow has always weighed each company according to its share price. That makes GM, at just below $19 a share, almost as important as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT ), which trades around $26 a share but has a market value 25 times greater. If GM shares were to fall to zero, S&P 500 investors would lose less than one-tenth of 1% . Dow investors would lose more than 15 times that. The Dow "is so strange as an index that it's just scary as an investment," says Tulane University finance professor Peter Ricchiuti.

Few expect Dow Jones & Co. (DJ ) to make a change unless GM takes a turn for the worse. The index is chosen by the editors of The Wall Street Journal -- who, over the years, have been cautious about altering the index. Famously, Dow Jones added Microsoft, Intel (INTC ), and SBC Communications (T ) in November, 1999, at the height of the technology bubble. John Prestbo, executive director of Dow Jones Indexes, says he's watching the situation now. "I look in the paper everyday for news about GM," he says. Lately, there has been plenty to read.

businessweek.com