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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (49535)	1/12/2006 10:42:45 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I agree it should be getting worse. But why are the Bank America's and Wash Mutuals and Golden West's of the world still so strong? Pump and dump with end of Jan top or is something else going on here?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (49535)	1/12/2006 10:53:22 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

So if we exclude the so called hurricane related deliquencies which are 6% of the total we still see overall bulk deliquencies up to 6.19% from 5.95% in the 3rd quarter. More importantly here's what the new resets looked like going into year end, a whole new set of cohorts put into the grip: 1 year Libor October: 4.68 vs. 2.53 last year Nov: 4.74 vs. 2.96 Dec. 4.83 vs. 3.10 Jan: now 4.85 vs. 3.27 Feb; now 4.85% vs. 3.51% Starting in March though, unless rates move higher, the resets will get a little more toned down: March; Libor now 4.85 vs 3.84 April: 4.85 vs 3.71 However, the offset is the first and second quarter were huge originations dates, next quarter's persistency (over year old mortgages) will spike even higher: idorfman.com