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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17135)	1/12/2006 1:49:18 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 25522

Brian, a price target is a struggle for me so I'll try to go with the price chart. Even that is very difficult because the slope has been mild lately, making it hard to discern a reversal. Will it last for years? stockcharts.com[r,a]dalaniay[d20000112,20060112][pb50!f][vc60]&pref=G

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17135)	1/12/2006 2:31:32 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

1 year target of $28 based on fy08 initial estimates of $1.18 eps and a 24 PE. Stock is near "fair value" currently based on my FY07 estimate of $0.96 eps and PE of 24 (target $23). I believe over the course of the next 3 quarters these estimates will rise. A 2 year stock target in the mid to upper $30s should not be out of the question. $50 seems a bit rich at this time but we know that eps can grow quickly if a new heavy buying cycle is approaching. I'll stick with my "conservative" numbers for now until we get a substantial change in guidance from mgmt. jmo to

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17135)	1/12/2006 3:27:08 PM
From: dr_elis	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

More worried about ASML right now, it keeps falling on heavy volume. Don´t know what to do, watch them diving until earnings are out? Sell now? Buy more? Here is another downgrade: ABN Amro Downgrades ASML To Sell Thursday, January 12, 2006 5:56:22 AM ET Dow Jones Newswires 0940 GMT [Dow Jones] ABN Amro downgrades ASML (33436.AE) to sell from reduce as stock is now trading close to peak multiples. Momentum in ordering will peak in 1Q, analyst says. Says ASML is unlikely to improve its operating margins from the 20%-to-22% level projected for the next 24 month, hence EPS growth expected to slow down materially over the period. On that basis, analyst says he's unwilling to chase the stock at current levels, despite having, admittedly, underestimated short-term demand until now. Raises target to EUR14.3 from EUR12. Shares -1.8% at EUR17.42. (ROC) To your question: Cary suggested recently 25$ as peak price for AMAT in 2006. His 2006 peak price for ASML was 30$.